Transcript Introduction to PI+

v1.3
Major Changes
Major Economic Data Sources
BEA Local Area Personal Income and Employment
county data (2001-2009), 04/21/2011 release.
 Estimates of detailed employment and wage data for
the states of Michigan, Nevada, and Texas (20012009) was provided by Don Grimes of the
University of Michigan.
 BEA State Personal Income and Employment state
and national data (1990-2009), 03/23/2011 release.
 BLS Employment Projections national data (19932008 and 2018), 12/11/2009 release.
 RSQE national forecast (2010-2013), 06/30/2011
release.

Major Demographic Data Sources
BEA Local Area Population county data (1990-2009),
04/21/2011 release.
 Census Population by age, sex, race, component of
change county data (1990-2009).
 BLS Labor Force county data (1990-2009).
 CDC birth rate state data (1990-2008).
 Census natality rate, survival rate, and net
international migrant national data and forecast
(1999-2100).
 BLS Participation Rate national data and forecast
(1990-2050).

Major New Features
Forecast period extended to 2060
 Integrated Custom Industry policy variables
 New Regional Population Update
 Improved data handling for Employment Update
 Calculator enhancements
 New Custom Units and Currency Types in
results view
 New industry NAICS labels
 New Demographic policy variables

New Migration Equation/Response

Last estimated July 2002 using 1972-2000 data
and a standard OLS regression approach

New equation estimates separate responses for
relative employment opportunity and relative real
compensation rate, utilizing Instrumental Variable
(IV) approach and data from 2001-2008
Estimates of Migration Equation
Parameters
New
Previous
(from July 2002
work)
(for PI+ v1.3)
Relative employment opportunity (REO)
0.303
0.280
Relative real compensation rate (RWR)
0.412
0.280
New Investment Response

Last estimated February 2001 using 1974-1998
data

New equation based on 1995-2007 data
New
Previous
(from February
2001 work)
(for PI+ v1.3)
Residential Investment in Structures
0.128
0.097
Non-Residential Investment in Structures
0.064
0.070
New National Housing Price Response
Last estimated September 2001 using 1971-1998
data
 Regional scaling factors estimated September
2007 using data from 1998-2004
 New equation based on data for 1998-2004,
intentionally aligning with previous regional
scaling factor estimates, and avoiding recent
housing price bubble and collapse

Estimates of U.S. Housing Price
Elasticities
New
Previous
(from
September 2001
work)
(for PI+ v1.3)
Real Disposable Income Elasticity
0.211
0.322
Population Elasticity
0.548
0.429