Transcript PPT presentation

STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Asymmetries in the OECD Trade in
services by partner country dataset
Bill Cave
OECD Statistics Directorate
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Introduction
• Trade in services by partner country data allow the
comparison of 2 estimates of the same flow (in principle)
• A bilateral flow and the mirror flow reported by partner
• However some conceptual asymmetries dilute this – e.g
merchanting, some financial services, construction
services, government n.i.e.
• Summary results of asymmetries on the OECD TISP
dataset for reference year 2004
• Compared with IMF BOPS Global imbalances
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECD TISP dataset
• 30 countries
• Covers over 75% of world trade in services
• With mirror flows can estimate 90% of world
trade
• Investigation looked at 1457 matched pairs of
exports and mirror imports in 2004
• Excluded EU totals to avoid double counting
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Global imbalances
Global trade in services imbalances 2004
Cr
BOP code
200 Trade in services
205 Transport
236 Travel
291 Government nie
984a Other services
US $bn
Db
US$bn
% diff DbCr
2,266
503
630
2,240
584
589
-1
16
-6
63
1,070
107
960
69
-10
Source IMF BOPS 2006
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
TISP Summary
OECD TISP matched pair asymmetries 2004
BOP code
200
205
236
245
260
262
266
268
287
291
984a
CR
US $bn
Trade in services
890.5
Transport
151.5
Travel
190.6
Communications
1.9
Financial services
5.4
Computer & information
0.8
Royalties & licenses
29.2
OBS
11.5
Pers, cult, & recr
0.7
Government nie
5.7
Other services
207.2
DB
US$bn
792.9
140.1
191.9
1.9
2.8
0.5
26.7
20.8
0.5
9.7
155.8
% diff Db- Median %
No.of pairs Cr
diff
508
270
319
44
33
32
45
44
24
55
83
-11
-8
0.7
0.1
-48
-31
-9
80
-32
70
-25
36
52
36
45
70
70
48
50
81
70
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Source OECD TISPW
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Conclusions
• An overall global imbalance in trade in services of 1%
• Hides much higher asymmetries in detailed data
• Best matches are total trade in services and travel
• Even here up to 40% asymmetries are typical
• Worst cases 260, 268, 287, 291 though small numbers
of pairs
• Provides starting point for quality investigations
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Finally….
• Countries can obtain a full listing of their
asymmetries on request to OECD Secretariat
• Thank you
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