Transcript PPTX

Key Concepts
U.S. GDP
Bad Growth Policy…
-0.05
1952-04-01
1954-07-01
1956-10-01
1959-01-01
1961-04-01
1963-07-01
1965-10-01
1968-01-01
1970-04-01
1972-07-01
1974-10-01
1977-01-01
1979-04-01
1981-07-01
1983-10-01
1986-01-01
1988-04-01
1990-07-01
1992-10-01
1995-01-01
1997-04-01
1999-07-01
2001-10-01
2004-01-01
2006-04-01
2008-07-01
2010-10-01
2013-01-01
2015-04-01
Stagnant Per Capita Income
U.S. Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
Trailing 5.5 year growth rate
0.05
0
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
15 Year Rolling Std Dev of YoY % Change
Declining Volatility Since Reserve Act
of 1930
Volatility of Nominal GDP
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
So Reduced Volatility is Good, Right?
Debt, debt everywhere...
U.S. Total Credit Market Debt
Obligations (TCMDO)
U.S. Total Credit Market Debt
Obligations (TCMDO)
Leverage?
Leverage Ratios: Major U.S. Financial Institutions 2003-2007
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2003
Lehman Brothers
2004
Bear Stearns
2005
Merrill Lynch
2006
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
2007
2013
Federal Reserve (Q4 2015)
See FRB H.4.1
Release, Table 5
The True State of Unemployment
This One’s Even Worse…
Labor Force Participation Rates, by Age
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Total, 16 years and
older
16 to 19 years
Participation rate 1994
20 to 24 years
Participation rate 2004
25 to 54 years
55 to 64 years
Participation rate 2014
65 to 74 years
75 years and older
Participation rate Projected 2024
NEARLY 1 IN 4 AMERICANS IN PRIME
WORKING AGE ARE NOT EMPLOYED
Unemployed or Not
in Labor Force,
29,542,711
Employed,
71,517,289
1/1/2015
3/1/2014
5/1/2013
7/1/2012
9/1/2011
11/1/2010
1/1/2010
3/1/2009
5/1/2008
7/1/2007
9/1/2006
11/1/2005
1/1/2005
3/1/2004
5/1/2003
Inactivity Rate
7/1/2002
9/1/2001
11/1/2000
1/1/2000
3/1/1999
5/1/1998
7/1/1997
9/1/1996
11/1/1995
1/1/1995
3/1/1994
5/1/1993
7/1/1992
9/1/1991
11/1/1990
1/1/1990
U.S. INDIVIDUALS AGES 25-54
Unemployed or Not in LF
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0