Transcript P6.5

Short Term Statistics in
National Accounts
Michael Stanger
National Accounts Department
Central Bank of Chile
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CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
DECEMBER 2009
Subjects

Quarterly National Accounts

Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMACEC)

Sources of information

Methods applied

Assessment of current economic situation
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CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
DECEMBER 2009
Quarterly national accounts

These are based on production indicators that extrapolate the
various components of the 2003 benchmark compilation, which
are adjusted to annual accounts through the method of temporal
disaggregation proposed by Denton.

Supply-Use Tables are balanced at a level of 33 products and
activities, and the publication is made at a level of 22 economic
activities with a lag of 48 days.

Sources of information:
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
Origin: Basic sources of information are production indicators by
sector, as well as foreign trade data.

Expenditure: Basic sources of information are indicators for
consumption and sales, imported machinery, engineering works
survey, inventory survey and Customs data for foreign trade.
CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
DECEMBER 2009
Monthly Economic Activity Indicator
(IMACEC)
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
The Imacec is a composite indicator of monthly production by all economic
sectors combined, at constant prices.

It is a proxy for quarterly and annual GDP variations, then it becomes the
first estimate of the evolution of the real economy.

The Imacec is compiled from 73 productive sectors. However, only the
aggregate is published 35 days after the reference month.

The Imacec is estimated through an accounting approach, using a
Laspeyres volume index obtained by taking integrals of monthly production
indexes from relevant industries, according to the structure of base year
2003.

Both the original series and the seasonally-adjusted series are published.
CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
DECEMBER 2009
Sources of information
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
National Statistical Bureau

Revenue Office

Other Government Offices (Ministries)

Private Industrial Associations

Own and Private surveys

Customs
CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
DECEMBER 2009
Methods applied
Some of the main statistical method used in the compilation process:

Benchmarking

Final Adjustment Procedures:

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=> Denton (proportional variant)

Raking
=> Dagum - Cholette

One way raking
=> Simple prorating

Wedging
=> Simple interpolation

Linking
=> Historical rate of change
Seasonal Adjustment
=> X12 ARIMA
CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
DECEMBER 2009
Assessment of current economic situation

Weekly and monthly inspections are made on original and seasonally
adjusted current series.

There are basically three issues we focus on:

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
Original same month annual rate of change;

Seasonally adjusted previous month rate of change;

Special events (shocks).
Analysis on these three issues help us in detecting promptly eventual
changes in GPD’s expansion path. However, more detailed analysis on
certain industries and on other macroeconomic aggregates
(consumption, inventories, investment) can eventually strengthen the
first conclusions. (Currently, work in progress)
CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
DECEMBER 2009
Assessment of current economic situation
First signal:
At least 4 months
in advance
IMACEC
Monthly series
1010.0
8 8.0
6
4
2
2.0
2.0
6.0
1.5
1.5
4.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
-2.0
-0.5
-2
-0.5
-4.0
-1.0
-4
-1.0
l-9
6
En
e97
Ju
l-9
7
En
e98
Ju
l-9
8
En
e99
Ju
l-9
9
En
e00
Ju
l-0
0
En
e01
Ju
l-0
1
En
e02
Ju
l-0
2
En
e03
Ju
l-0
3
En
e04
Ju
l-0
4
En
e05
Ju
l-0
5
En
e06
Ju
l-0
6
En
e07
Ju
l-0
7
En
e08
Ju
l-0
8
En
e09
-1.5
Ju
En
e-
96
-6.0
-6
Ene-07
Abr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Ene-08
Abr-08
SA
SA MoM
MoM %
% MA3
MA3
8
2.5
2.5
CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
Jul-08
Oct-08
Ene-09
Abr-09
Original
Original YoY
YoY %
%
DECEMBER 2009
Jul-09
-1.5
Assessment of current economic situation
QNA First signal:
Quarterly series
At least 1 quarter
in advance
10
DECEMBER 2009
1
3
1
3
09
.Q
09
.Q
08
.Q
3
Original YoY %
08
.Q
3
1
3
1
3
1
07
.Q
07
.Q
06
.Q
06
.Q
05
.Q
05
.Q
1
04
.Q
04
.Q
03
.Q
03
.Q
02
.Q
02
.Q
01
.Q
01
.Q
00
.Q
00
.Q
99
.Q
99
.Q
98
.Q
97
.Q
97
.Q
96
.Q
96
.Q
98
.Q
CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
3
-3.6
1
-6
3
-2.4
1
-4
3
-1.2
1
-2
3
0.0
1
0
3
1.2
1
2
3
2.4
1
4
3
3.6
1
6
3
4.8
1
8
SA QoQ %
9
6.0
Assessment of current economic situation:
Specific Activities.
Manufacturing
Monthly Production
15
7
10
6
5
5
0
4
Effects on manufacturing started before
-5
3
-10
2
-15
1
-
-20
SA MoM % MA3
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CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
Original YoY %
DECEMBER 2009
Jul.09
Apr.09
Jan.09
Oct.08
Jul.08
Apr.08
Jan.08
Oct.07
Jul.07
Apr.07
Jan.07
Oct.06
Jul.06
Apr.06
Jan.06
Oct.05
Jul.05
Apr.05
Jan.05
Oct.04
Jul.04
Apr.04
Jan.04
Oct.03
-2
Jul.03
-30
Apr.03
-1
Jan.03
-25
Assessment of current economic situation:
Specific Activities.
Mining and quarrying
Monthly series
Different30problems (supply) affected the mining
sector
before the crisis started, so the impact
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(demand) is not too clear.
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10
10
8
0
6
-10
4
-20
2
-
-30
SA MoM % MA3
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CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
Original YoY %
DECEMBER 2009
Jul-09
Ene-09
Jul-08
Ene-08
Jul-07
Ene-07
Jul-06
Ene-06
Jul-05
Ene-05
Jul-04
-4
Ene-04
-50
Jul-03
-2
Ene-03
-40
Final remarks
 IMACEC is not a leading indicator of he economic evolution but a
precise proxy of the evolution of quarterly GDP. Then, the use of
seasonal adjusted series to asses current economic situation reflects
recent status’ evolution instead of warning future changes. However,
these types of analysis are fairly timely and useful in periods when QNA
are not yet available.
 Despite of the usefulness of the analysis of SA series, detailed analysis
on industries (subject matter expertise) is an unavoidable complement
when compiling and reporting official statistics.
 A mid term goal is to develop complementary analysis of monthly series
related to expenditure such as final consumption and changes in
inventories.
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CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
DECEMBER 2009
Short Term Statistics in
National Accounts
Michael Stanger
National Accounts Department
Central Bank of Chile
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CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
DECEMBER 2009