Transcript P4.11

International Seminar on Early
Warning and Business Cycle
Indicators
Session 4
The role of composite indicators in tracking
the Business Cycle
Geert Bruinooge
Statistics Netherlands
Discussion 1
• Is there a need for two types of composite
indicators (leading and coincidental)?
• Or can we use just one composite
indicator ( a combination of leading,
coincidental and lagging components)?
Discussion 2
• Do we need a fixed set of criteria for the
selection of components for all countries to
enhance co-ordination and comparability?
Discussion 3
• Is it possible to define a minimum set of
components to be included in all Leading
Indicators and Coincidental Indicators?
• Or are the economic situations so divers
that no minimum set can be defined?
Discussion 4
• Is an explicit statistical and econometric
model not preferable above the use of
individual models?
• Weighing: a model that takes into account
the contributions of each component might
be better.
Discussion 5
• NSI’s should concentrate on monthly
indicators which actually measure general
economic activity instead of on CLI’s.
Discussion 6
• How to improve the early detection of
turning points?
• How to measure the robustness of
growth?
• Dow we need to develop International
Guidelines on Composite Indicators of the
economic cycle?