Transcript (Land Values - PPT)

Oklahoma Agricultural Land Value
Update
Roger Sahs, Extension Specialist
OSU Department of Agricultural Economics
OK Land Values by Region, 2013*
Panhandle
Tracts
23
Size
763
$/Acre $790
% Chg -2.3
West-Northwest
Tracts
140
Size
180
$/Acre $1,529
% Chg +16.7
Northeast
Tracts
328
Size
156
$/Acre $1,823
% Chg +11.6
East-Northeast
Tracts
43
Size
183
$/Acre $1,925
% Chg +5.3
State Averages
Tracts
1,202
Size
205
$/Acre $1,705
% Chg +16.2
Southwest
Tracts
137
Size
188
$/Acre $1,354
% Chg +15.5
North Central
Tracts
177
Size
133
$/Acre $1,952
% Chg +21.4
South Central
Tracts
102
Size
209
$/Acre $1,750
% Chg +11.2
Southeast
Tracts
252
Size
294
$/Acre $1,696
% Chg +9.7
*Tracts >= 40 Acres and <= $6000/Acre
Recent Trends in Oklahoma Land Values
2013
District
One Year
Change
$/ac
3 Year
Change
10 Year
Change
Percent Change
Panhandle
790
-2.3
38.1
132.9
West-NW
1,529
16.7
53.0
204.8
Southwest
1,354
15.5
36.9
170.4
NC-Central
1,952
21.4
47.1
122.2
South
Central
1,750
11.2
18.2
97.2
Northeast
1,823
11.6
13.5
99.9
East-NE
1,925
5.3
10.4
67.8
Southeast
1,696
9.7
21.0
121.7
OK Crop
1,955
24.8
61.3
173.9
OK Pasture
1,747
15.5
21.6
106.3
Oklahoma
1,705
16.2
28.1
118.4
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Oklahoma Cropland vs Pastureland Prices*
Upward but not steady
climb in values.
“Boom to Bust” was only
30 years ago.
Major increase in values
in recent years especially
cropland.
*Cropland and pasture tracts defined as having 85%+
cropland and pasture utilization, respectively.
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Oklahoma Cropland and Pastureland Prices
Nominal vs Inflation Adjusted (base year 2013)
Pasture
Cropland
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
1973-1975 Average Value
Tracts >= 40 Acres and <= $3000/Acre
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
2011-2013 Average Value
Tracts >= 40 Acres and <= $6000/Acre
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
County, Regional, and Oklahoma Comparisons
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Key Land drivers looking ahead…
 Recent commodity prices and farm
incomes
 Interest rate levels
 Financial health of current buyers
Non-irrigated Cropland Value and Wheat
Revenue in Oklahoma
300
1,600
1,400
Correlation = .77
1,200
200
1,000
150
800
600
100
400
50
200
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Wheat revenue
2006
2007
2008
Dry cropland value
USDA/NASS data
2009
2010
2011
2012
Linear (Wheat revenue)
2013
2014
Dry cropland value ($/Ac.)
Wheat Revenue ($/Ac.)
250
Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, August 2014
Debt levels are still low….
Source: Daily Oklahoman (Newsok.com), June 2014
www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Other Resources
• Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank
– http://www.kc.frb.org/
– Choose Ag in Economy section, then Current Survey
• USDA Ag Land Value Data and Reports
– http://www.nass.usda.gov/
– Choose Economics and Prices Link, then Agricultural Land
Values in Reports section