Transcript (Grain Market- PPT)

Wheat, Corn, Sorghum,
Soybeans & Cotton
Kim Anderson
Oklahoma State University
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
U.S. Dollar Index: Monthly Nearest
2010/11
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Wheat
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
KC Wheat: Weekly Nearest
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
KC Dec: Daily
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
U.S. Wheat Situation
Year
Ending
Production Consumption Stocks
U. S.
Price
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.50
2.22
2.21
2.00
2.25
2.14
2.03
2.12
2.28
2.02
2.42
2.23
2.41
2.43
2.00
2.19
.657
.976
.862
.743
.718
.590
.753
.842
$6.78
$4.87
$5.70
$7.24
$7.77
$6.87
$5.99
$5.25
7-YR Avg.
2.19
2.34
.751
$6.46
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
World Wheat Situation
Year
Ending
Production Consumption Stocks
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
7-YR
Avg.
25.1
25.2
24.0
25.6
24.2
26.3
26.7
26.5
23.6
23.9
24.1
25.6
25.0
25.7
26.0
26.2
6.1
7.4
7.3
7.2
6.5
7.1
7.8
8.1
$6.78
$4.87
$5.70
$7.24
$7.77
$6.87
$5.99
$5.25
25.3
24.9
7.0
$6.46
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Outlook
December 2015
$5.10
June 2016
$5.75
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Corn
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
CBT Corn: Monthly Nearest
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
CBT Dec Corn: Daily
Corn Basis -$0.25
Sorghum $0.10
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
World Corn Situation
Year
Production
Consumption
Ending
Stocks
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
31.4
32.3
32.8
34.9
34.2
39.0
39.4
38.9
30.8
32.4
33.5
34.8
34.0
37.5
38.7
39.0
5.8
5.7
5.1
5.2
5.4
6.9
7.6
7.5
7-YR Avg.
34.8
34.5
6.0
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
U.S. Corn Situation
Year
Ending
Production Consumption Stocks
U. S.
Price
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
12.1
13.1
12.4
12.4
10.8
13.8
14.2
13.5
12.1
13.1
13.1
12.5
11.1
13.5
13.7
13.7
1.67
1.71
1.13
0.99
0.82
1.23
1.78
1.60
$4.06
$3.55
$5.18
$6.22
$6.89
$4.46
$3.70
$3.75
7-YR Avg.
12.69
12.71
1.35
$4.86
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Outlook:
 U. S. and world stocks above average.
2015/16 Corn ending stocks 1.60 bb
 2015/16 Average price $3.50
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Sorghum
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
U.S. Sorghum Situation
Year
Ending
Production Consumption Stocks
U. S.
Price
(Million Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
472
383
346
214
248
392
433
505
471
396
359
219
265
374
450
495
55
41
27
23
15
34
17
27
$3.20
$3.22
$5.02
$5.99
$6.33
$4.28
$4.00
$4.05
5-YR Avg.
327
333
23
$5.12
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Outlook:

Sorghum prices follow corn prices
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Soybean
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
CBT Soybean: Monthly Nearest
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
CBT Soybean Dec: Daily
Basis -$0.90
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
U.S. Soybean Situation
Year
Ending
Production Consumption Stocks
U. S.
Price
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.0
3.4
4.0
3.9
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.8
3.7
0.14
0.15
0.22
0.17
0.14
0.09
0.26
0.43
$9.97
$9.59
$11.30
$12.50
$14.40
$13.00
$10.05
$9.25
7-YR Avg.
3.3
3.3
0.17
$11.54
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
World Soybean Situation
Year
Production
Consumption
Ending
Stocks
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
7.79
9.59
9.70
8.80
9.88
10.41
11.71
11.72
8.13
8.75
9.25
9.47
9.60
10.11
10.88
11.25
1.58
2.23
2.59
2.00
2.07
2.30
3.00
3.37
7-YR Avg.
9.70
9.46
2.25
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Soybean Relevant Numbers
Current
Projections
Average
Billion Bushels
U.S. Ending Stocks
0.430
.170
World Ending Stocks
3.370
2.25
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Soybean Outlook:
 U.S. stocks above average.
 World stocks above average
 2015/16 Prices average $9.25
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Cotton
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
World Cotton Situation
Year
Production
Consumption
Ending
Stocks
(Million Bales)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
107.1
102.6
116.3
126.6
123.6
120.5
119.0
111.5
110.1
119.0
114.1
102.9
107.8
108.9
110.9
114.4
60.8
46.7
50.4
73.8
90.5
102.8
110.0
108.1
7-YR Avg.
116.5
110.6
76.4
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
U.S. Cotton Situation
Year
Ending
Production Consumption Stocks
U. S.
Price
(Million Bales)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
12.8
12.2
18.1
15.6
17.3
12.9
16.3
14.5
16.9
15.6
18.3
15.0
16.5
14.1
14.6
14.6
6.3
3.0
2.6
3.4
3.9
2.5
4.2
4.2
47.8 ¢
62.9 ¢
81.5 ¢
88.3 ¢
72.5 ¢
77.9 ¢
60.5 ¢
62.0 ¢
7-YR Avg.
15.0
15.8
3.7
70.2 ¢
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Outlook:
U.S. and World stocks above average
2015/16 Prices expected to average 62¢
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.