Transcript Document 7624291

L A T I N
A M E R I C A :
The political economy of the possible
Javier Santiso
Chief Development Economist & Deputy Director
OECD Development Centre
Promosalons
Paris  20 February 2006
1
LATIN AMERICA: IN THE GARDEN OF
DELIGHTS?
2
THE FLOOD OF PARADIGMS IN LATIN
AMERICA
Utopia in Latin America: from a spacial search to a temporal
search.
A search which has impregnated the history of Latin American
political economy: from structuralism to monetarism, from
Marxism to Liberalism. In the 20th Century the whole
Continent was dancing a waltz of paradigms.
The famous decalogue of the Washington Consensus: yet
another variation on this waltz.
3
FROM MARXISM TO LIBERALISM: MODELS
TO BE CREATED
“The great ideological storms” (Isaiah Berlin).
A few decades ago one of the key words in the entire
continent was “Revolution”; a projective concept which
denotes a temporal Beyond.
Whether Cuban or Chilean, Marxist or Liberal, the
Revolution will feed the time of tomorrows and the
sacrifices of the immediate present.
The flood, as Albert Hirschman describes it, brought with it
an “angry desire to conclude”, where rigid economic
models constituted numerous invitations to design
alternatives with no chiaroscuro; either all or nothing.
4
DEMOCRACY AND THE MARKET: THE NEW
ALPHABET
The transormations of the Latin American continent are now
obvious.
In the region as a whole, the conceptual and practical
framework of political economies have been transformed.
Democracy and the Market have taken over from Revolution
and the State on the altar of references.
To sum up, a complete vocabulary and grammar have
disappeared from the political and economic repertoire
allowing a new ideology to emerge.
5
THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION OF LATIN
AMERICA
The great transformation which took place in Latin America at
the end of this century does not herald the arrival of the Good
Liberal.
There was no transfer from one paradigm to another, instead a
new cognitive style emerged.
We witness the failure of the whole idea of political utopia and
the politicial economy of the impossible.
The failure of a cognitive style of macroeconomy of populism,
similar to the purist monetarism of the Chicago Boys has only
been the defense and illustration of the same concept.
6
A BLESSING IN DISGUISE FOR LATIN
AMERICA?
Perhaps we should not spend too much time mourning the
passing away of the great reforming impulses.
A detailed study carried out by Hausmann and Rodrik in 2004,
proves that most economic accelerations were not preceded by
reforming big-bangs,
or by marked politicial or economic
ruptures.
This empirical study covers a wide range of 83 sustained world
growth patterms between 1957 and 1992 (above two
percentage points over a period of at least eight years).
7
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POLITICAL ECONOMY
OF THE POSSIBLE
The strategy used by Ulysses: leaders know that they could
be in danger of succumbing to the temptation of the sirens
chanting the economic politics of the impossible.
They are cautious and they tie themselves to the masts of
the fiscal and monetary institutions they have contribute to
build.
Two strategies of development are being outlined – and
sometimes combined- in the region: one is an anchor of
endogenous credibility, coming from within, and the other
isan anchor of exognous credibility, getting its inspiration
from external factors.
8
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE POSSIBLE:
THE LATAM SILENT TRANSFORMATION
9
1
Latin America’s Crusade
2
The Great Latin American Transformation
3
Conclusion
10
THE BIG CHALLENGE: THE LIFE AFTER THE
“WASHINGTON CONSENSUS”
Index of Structural Reforms in Latin America
CEPAL
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
IDB
1970
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
CEPAL: Latin American Economic Commission
IDB: Inter American Development Bank
Source: Based on CEPAL and IDB
11
A DISAPPOINTING PERFORMANCE IN THE
REGION…
last 25 years
Sout East Asia
7.7%
World
3.3%
USA
3.1%
Latin America
2.8%
EU
Source: Based on World Bank
Not only was growth
poor but it was also
very volatile.
Volatibility of growth
last 25 years
2.3%
Latin America
2.3%
South East Asia
2.2%
USA
2.1%
EU
1.1%
World
1.0%
Source: Based on World Bank
12
…THE CONSEQUENCE HAS BEEN A
DIVERGENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
INCOME PER CAPITA
Crecimiento promedio
9%
8%
7%
Am érica
Latina
6%
With the exception of the
70s when Latin America
attained
an
average
growth rate of 6% ...
Sudeste
asiático
5%
EEUU
4%
3%
UE
2%
1%
0%
70's
80's
90's
Evolución del PIB per cápita ($ PPP)
00's
40000
35000
UE (15)
20000
29700
15000
Am érica Latina
10000
5000
Fuente: BBVA en base a FMI
13
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
0
1982
8600
25000
1980
… during succeeding
decades the income per
capita gap between the
developped regions
widened.
EEUU
30000
HOWEVER, 2003 BROUGHT A CHANGE IN
TENDENCY...
Crecimiento Latam y cambios de tendencia
9.0E+10
8%
8.5E+10
8.0E+10
6%
Crecim iento
7.5E+10
4%
7.0E+10
6.5E+10
2%
6.0E+10
0%
5.5E+10
5.0E+10
-2%
Indicador de cambios
de tendencia
4.5E+10
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
-4%
1976
4.0E+10
During the second
half of the 90’s, the
tendency in regional
growth broke down
and
suffered
a
deceleration.
Since 2003,
the
region is booming in
a synchronised way.
Source: BBVA
The indicator for the change in tendency is an index of measurement for changes in the cycle. It
marks the beginning of expansive and recessive stages of the economic cycles.
14
AN UPWARD TURN BEGAN WITH A NEW
CYCLE IN 2004-2006....
Latin American Cycles
The last cycle in the
region was very
long (11 years),
especially compared
to previous ones
which
lasted
8
years.
1980
1997
1987
1983
2003
1991
8 años
Source : BBVA
8 años
11 años
Average Length
Expansions:
5,3 years
Decelerations:
4 years
15
ARE WE REACHING A NEW CYCLE?
Cycles in Latin America
2004
8 años
Source: BBVA
8 años
11 años
Moreover, there were
two
“sharp
interruptions”
(the
Tequila crisis in 1995
and the Russian crisis
in 1998).
16
THE SCENARIO OF US AND WORLD
ACTIVITY IS KEY
Cyclical Situation in USA and Latin America
USA
Tendency
Latin America
Correlation = 0,80
Source: Based on ECLAC and IMF
In spite of the fact
that variable factors
such as the cost of
raw materials cause
the opposite
economic effect in
Latin America as
opposed to
developped countries,
regional growth is
closely linked to the
growth patterns of
USA.
17
THE WORLD OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING
YEARS IS GOOD
%
World growth exLatam
6
5
4
Growth in USA remained
strong in 2005 and will keep
growing in 2006.
3
2
0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1
Source: OECD
Evolution of income percapita
9000
(constant dollars in 1996)
Brazil
8000
7000
6000
5000
China
China will continue to boost
world demand in 2006
having grown 9,9% in 2005
and 9,6% on average over
the last 25 years.
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
18
CHINA CONTRIBUTE TO GROWTH IN LATIN
AMERICA
Growth of GDP in China
(Annual percentage variation)
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
Source: Based on domestic sources, before the revised
figures released in Jnauary 2006.
2005
19
México
7
Colombia
8
Venezuela
8
Uruguay
9
Brasil
9
Perú
10
Argentina
10
Chile
Exports to China in 2003
(Percentage of total)
COMMODITY BOOM HAS BEEN A BONANZA
Exports of commodities
BBVA-MAP Index of Latin America commodity prices
170
(100 =jan03)
over total exports (2004)
160
150
140
Without oil
130
120
110
TOTAL
100
90
80
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
60
1996
70
Venezuela
83.1%
Peru
70.7%
Chile
59.1%
Colombia
46.3%
Argentina
38.0%
Brazil
29.6%
Mexico
14.6%
Latam
31.2%
Source: BBVA
Source: BBVA
20
… BOOSTING GROWTH
GDP and BBVA MAP Latam
6%
30%
GDP growth
5%
20%
4%
10%
3%
0%
2%
-10%
1%
The higher volatility
in the price of these
products is
reflected in the
cycle.
Crecim BBVA-MAP
-20%
0%
=
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-30%
1999
1998
1997
1996
1994
1993
1992
1991
-1%
1995
Correlación
0,65
Source: BBVA
The BBVA-MAP Latin America is a price indicator for net exports of raw materials in the region.
21
1
Latin America’s Crusade
2
The Great Latin American Transformation
3
Conclusion
22
THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION:
THE MONETARY MAST
Inflation (%)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Latin America
Total Emerging Markets
Source: Based on IMF
23
THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION:
THE FISCAL MAST
Public deficit (% over GDP)
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2004p
With the sole exception of
Venezuela, significant
advances are being
achieved in the reduction
of fiscal deficit.
-8%
-10%
1999
-12%
In the last recessive
phase the consensus in
fiscal discipline became
apparent.
Source : BBVA
24
THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION:
THE EXTERNAL ANCHOR
Commercial Openings in Latin America
50%
Commercial Openings in 2004
45%
Brazil
40%
Peru
35%
Colombia
30%
Argentina
25%
Uruguay
20%
15%
Venezuela
10%
Chile
5%
2004 (e)
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
Mexico
1974
Source: BBVA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Source: BBVA en base a fuentes nacionales
Current Account Latam
2
1,3
0,7
1
% sobre PIB
0%
0,1
0
-1
-0,5
-2
-3
-4
-2,3
-2,5
2000
2001
-3,1
-3,2
-4,3
-5
1997
1998
1999
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source BBVA
25
70%
The political economy of the possible: Chile
26
CHILE HAS INNOVATED IN ECONOMIC
POLICY ...
Year Goal Adopted and Initial Inflation
45
Peru
40
Tasa de Inflación (%)
35
30
Chile
25
20
Israel
Mexico
15
10
Rep. Czechj
5
Canada
N. Zealand
0
1990
UK
Suecia
1992
Spain
Finland
1994
Australia
1996
Colombia
Island
Poland
S.Africa
Korea
Norway
Suiza
Brazil
Thailand
1998
2000
2002
Source: Central Bank of Chile
27
… FAVOURING GRADUAL ADJUSTMENTS …
Anual Inflation (%)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
0
Source: BBVA
28
… AGAINST THE “RAGE DE VOULOIR
CONCLURE”
Average Tariff
(%)
Free Trade Agreements
Country
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960-64 1965-70 1971-73 1974-81 1982-84 1985-95 1995-00 2000-05
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Mercosur
Perú
Cuba
Venezuela
Canadá
Corea del Sur
Costa Rica
El Salvador
EEUU
Guatemala
Honduras
México
Nicaragua
UE
Subscribed
06/04/1993
06/12/1993
20/12/1994
25/06/1996
22/06/1998
21/08/1998
02/04/1993
05/12/1996
15/02/2003
18/10/1999
18/10/1999
06/06/2003
18/10/1999
18/10/1999
01/10/1998
18/10/1999
18/11/2002
Validity
07/07/1993
01/01/1994
01/01/1995
01/10/1996
01/07/1998
01/07/1993
05/07/1997
01/04/2004
14/02/2002
03/06/2002
01/01/2004
01/08/1999
01/02/2003
.
In the 1960s, there was already consensus in favour of an opening. The debate centred on two
main issues:
The spread of opening and the advantage/disadvantage of differentiated tariffs. With the
return of democracy,
The process of unilateral and joint reductions of tariffs was complemented with bilateral
treaties.
29
SUCCESSFUL POLICIES ARE CONTINUED:
PENSION SYSTEM
Evolution of the Pension System in Latin America (in % of GDP)
Return of Democracy
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
11
Num. periods
ARGENTINA
COSTA RICA
MEXICO
BOLIVIA
CHILE
PERU
COLOMBIA
EL SALVADOR
URUGUAY
30
….. BUT WITH GRADUAL INCREASES
Evolution of Pension Funds in Latin America (in % of GDP)
70%
60%
Retorno a democrácia
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Num. periods
ARGENTINA
BOLIVIA
COLOMBIA
COSTA RICA
EL SALVADOR
MEXICO
PERU
URUGUAY
CHILE
31
The political economy of the possible: Mexico
32
MONETARY ANCHOR: THE CENTRAL BANK A
KEY ACTOR FOR LOWERING INFLATION
Inflation
(Percentage)
... Perspectives are now
anchored at levels around 4%.
140
120
100
80
Difference between underlying inflation and Banxico goal
(Percentage)
60
6%
-2%
Source: Banxico
33
sep-04
may-04
ene-04
sep-03
may-03
ene-03
sep-02
may-02
ene-02
sep-01
may-01
ene-01
sep-00
ene-00
may-00
sep-99
-1%
may-99
0%
ene-99
1%
sep-98
2004
2%
may-98
As in the rest of the region
inflation has been considerably
reduced ...
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
3%
1986
0
1984
4%
1982
20
1980
5%
1978
40
FISCAL ANCHOR: HEALTHY PUBLIC FINANCES
Public Sector financing requirements
(Percentage of GDP)
.. .. however, the government
still depends on oil to finance
it’s expenditures.
20
15
10
5
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
0
Income from Oil
As a percentage of the total)
50%
45%
-5
40%
35%
-10
30%
25%
Public debt has been
considerably reduced ...
20%
15%
10%
34
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
Source: Banxico figures
1987
0%
1986
5%
EXTERNAL ANCHOR: THE EMERGENCE OF A GLOBAL
TRADER
Total Exports
200
... Which has resulted in a
greater degree of openness
180
160
140
120
100
80
Degree of Openness
((X+M)/PIB)
60
40
60
20
55
0
1980/12
1984/12
1988/12
1992/12
1996/12
2000/12
2004/12
50
45
Mexican exports increased on
average by 17% each year
between 1989 and 2004 ...
40
35
30
25
20
Source: INEGI and Banxico
China
Chile
Mex
Tur
Col
Arg
Perú
Bra
35
Ind
THE COUNTRY NOW DEPENDS A LOT LESS
ON RAW MATERIALES
Exports
200
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Exports by receiver countries
(1986-1988 y 1999-2001).
1,0
180
0,9
160
0,8
140
0,7
120
0,6
No petroleras
100
0,5
0,4
80
0,3
60
0,2
40
0,1
20
1986-1988 1999-2001
The export of manufactured goods grew on average between 1990 and
2000, about 28% per year and now accounts for 90% of total exports.
36
Venezuela
Uruguay
Perú
Paraguay
Nicaragua
México
Honduras
Guatemala
Chile
El Salvador
2004/12
Ecuador
2000/12
Costa Rica
1996/12
Colombia
1992/12
Brasil
1988/12
Bolivia
1984/12
Argentina
0
1980/12
0,0
Petroleras
MOREOVER, TLCAN HAS MEANT THAT THE COUNTRY
HAS BECOME “ANCHORED” TO THE ECONOMY OF USA
Recovery of GDP
(Índice=100 maximum)
GDP in Mexico and Industrial Production in USA .
(Percentage of Anual Exchange)
110
1981
1985
1994
10
2000
105
8
6
Mexico GDP
100
4
2
95
0
90
-2
-4
US industrial production.
85
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14
Source: INEGI and Banxico
The new productive structure has caused the economic cycle to become
more stable , and volatility has become a thing of the past.
37
2004
4
2003
3
2002
2
2001 p/
1
2000
0
1999
-1
1998
-2
-8
1997
80
1996
-6
Quarters after the crisis
The political economy of the possible: Brazil
38
EXTERNAL TRANSFORMATION
Commercial opening
(Exports + Imports) / GDP
30%
Following the 1999
devaluation which give
way to the floating of
the real, the economy
has gradually opened
up, making it less
vulnerable to external
shocks.
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
0%
Source: Based on BCB figures
39
Deviation of Real GDP per capita with respect to world average
(in logarithms)
TRADE OPENESS AND CATCHING UP PROCESS
Trade openness and development
1,0
0,8
0,6
2001- 04
0,4
Successful Asian emerging
countries were able to
simultaneously combine
growth with a trade openness
proccess.
0,2
0,0
1951- 55
- 0,2
2001- 04
2001- 04
- 0,4
- 0,6
1951- 55
1951- 55
- 0,8
Thailand
- 1,0
0,0
0,2
Taiwan
0,4
South Korea
0,6
Japan
0,8
India
China
1,0
Real trade openness (as a % of GDP)
Source: BBVA using Penn World Tables and IMF data
Brazilian Real Trade Openness
(as a % of GDP)
30%
25%
1,2
Brazil has recently started to
open up its economy. It is
also obtaining record trade
surpluses: nearly 45 billion
dollars in 2005; up 25% from
the previous year.
20%
15%
10%
5%
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
0%
Source: BBVA
40
BRAZILIAN FIRMS BEGAN TO EXPAND
OVERSEAS
Top 100 firms in Latin-America
50
Rk
Firm
Sector
45
40
40
30
20
8
10
3
1
1
1
1
Peru
Venezuela
0
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
Argentina Ecuador
Colombia
3
12
32
48
21
63
40
66
144
94
20
62
52
208
102
143
31
16
Petrobras
Petroleum
Vale do Rio Doce
Mining
Grupo Votorantim
Holding
Usiminas
Steel
Gerdau
Steel
Gerdau Açominas
Steel
Telesp
Telecom
CSN
Steel
CST
Steel
Cemig
Electricity
Electrobras
Electricity
Embraer
Aerospace
Ambev-CBB
Drinks
Aracruz Celulose
Paper
Balgo Mineira
Steel
Cosipa
Steel
Telemar Norte Leste Telecom
Odebrecht
Holding
Utility
Exports
04 (US$ Mill) % of sales % of sales
6.728,7
16,5
11,2
2.433,5
23,5
30,6
1.544,6
26,6
18,9
1.137,3
24,7
9,1
1.066,7
14,4
11,6
935,6
24,5
22,4
821,7
16,4
746,6
20,2
20,2
611,9
31,9
53,5
521,7
19,4
487,2
6,5
473,1
12,3
86,9
437,6
9,7
402,5
31,3
61,8
391,6
15,5
363,2
18,8
33,5
345,5
5,9
320,2
3,9
-
Source: America Economia
2005
41
BRAZILIAN FIRMS RALLIED MEXICAN
MULTILATINAS
The 50 more profitable firms
20
19
Number of firms in Forbes 2000
16
35
15
30
25
10
20
7
15
5
10
3
1
5
1
1
1
1
Panama
Peru
Venezuela
0
0
India
Spain
China
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
Argentina Colombia Ecuador
Source: America Economia 2005
Source: Forbes 2000
42
THE CHINESE BONANZA
Coef de conformidad
Commercial Competition with China
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.25
Brazilian products hardly
compete at all with Chinese
goods in international goods
markets, and, moreover, the
tendency is for these levels to
drop.
Tailandia
Hungría
México
Rep. Checa
EEUU
Japón
Brazil
0.35
Polonia
España
0.45
0.55
Coef de especialización
Source: Blázquez, Rodríguez y Santiso, 2005
0.65
Commercial competition between China and Brazil
31%
30%
29%
28%
27%
26%
25%
24%
23%
30%
30%
28%
27%
25%
1998
25%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Blázquez, Rodríguez y Santiso, 2005
43
1
Latin America’s Crusade
2
The Great Latin American Transformation
3
Conclusion
44
Latin America 2006: The political cycle is back
MÉXICO
REPÚBLICA
DOMINICANA
Next presidential
elections
2007 - 2009
2006
2004 - 2005
HONDURAS
GUATEMALA
NICARAGUA
VENEZUELA
EL SALVADOR
COSTA RICA
PANAMÁ
COLOMBIA
ECUADOR
BRAZIL
PERÚ
BOLIVIA
PARAGUAY
CHILE
URUGUAY
ARGENTINA
45
The timing game: Political cycles and crises in
Latin America used to be synchronized,
1970-2000
Nominal exchange rate depreciation
and government change
1,16
1,14
1,12
1,1
1,08
1,06
1,04
1,02
1
0,98
0,96
Source: Frieden, Ghezzi y Stein, 2001
0,94
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Country`s Total
Colombia
Costa Rica
Guatemala
Ecuador
Chile
Peru
Honduras
Paraguay
Brazil
El Salvador
Republica Dom.
Uruguay
Mexico
Argentina
Nicaragua
Panama
Venezuela
Bolivia
13
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
Elections
1989 17
1990 14
1991
3
1992
0
1993 10
1994 18
1995
6
1996
8
1997
7
1998 15
1999 12
2000 11
2001
4
2002 13
2003
8
2004
6
2005
5
2006 11
46
During the period 2000-2005, some countries
achieved a decoupling: The case of Mexico
Timing of Presidential Elections and Exchange
Rate Depreciations in Mexico, 1975-2000
70
Election Year
60
50
40
Election Year
30
20
10
0
-10
Election Year
-20
01/04/2001
01/07/1999
01/10/1997
01/01/1996
01/04/1994
01/07/1992
01/10/1990
01/01/1989
01/04/1987
01/07/1985
01/10/1983
01/01/1982
01/04/1980
01/07/1978
01/10/1976
01/01/1975
-30
Source: Jorge Blázquez and Javier Santiso, 2004.
47
While others had overcome the test of fire
more recently: The case of Brazil
Spread Brazil-Em erging Countries and Electoral Polls bp
1994
32%
45%
520
Voter intention
for Lula in the
opinion polls
35%
(left)
420
30%
320
28%
220
26%
30%
120
40%
Spread Brazil-Em erging Countries and Electoral Polls
1998
pb.
200
150
Voter intention
for Lula in the
opinion polls
(left)
100
50
24%
0
22%
-50
20%
-100
20
25%
-80
-180
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99
/1 1 /1 2 /1 3 /1 3 /1 4 /1 5 /1 6 /1 6 /1 7 /1 8 /1 8 /1 9 /1 0 /1 1 /1 1 /1 2 /1
1
/0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /1 /1 /1 /1
02 26 17 10 31 22 13 04 25 17 07 28 21 13 03 25 17
03
/0
31 1/1
/ 0 99
28 1/1 4
/ 0 99
25 2/1 4
/ 0 99
22 3/1 4
/ 0 99
20 4/1 4
/ 0 99
17 5/1 4
/ 0 99
15 6/1 4
/ 0 99
11 7/1 4
/ 0 99
08 8/1 4
/ 0 99
05 9/1 4
/ 1 99
02 0/1 4
/ 1 99
01 1/1 4
/ 1 99
29 2/1 4
/ 1 99
2/ 4
19
94
20%
Spread Brazil-Emerging Countries and Electoral Polls bp.
2002
45%
1400
40%
35%
Voter intention
for Lula in the
opinion polls
(left)
30%
1200
1000
800
600
400
25%
20%
0
02
/0
18 1 /2
/0 00
1
05 /2 2
/0 00
21 2 /2 2
/0 00
2
11 /2 2
/0 00
27 3 /2 2
/0 00
15 3 /2 2
/0 00
02 4 /2 2
/0 00
5
20 /2 2
/0 00
10 5 /2 2
/0 00
6
27 /2 2
/0 00
2
15 6 /2
/0 00
01 7 /2 2
/0 00
19 8 /2 2
/0 00
05 8 /2 2
/0 00
9/ 2
20
02
Source: Based on Juan
Martínez and Javier
Santiso, 2003.
200
Source: Datafolha, JP Morgan
48
Thank you
for your attention!
49