Transcript Document 7503472

PPA 691 – Seminar in Public
Policy Analysis
Lectures 3&4 – Problem Structuring
Nature of Policy Problems
 Problem structuring, which is a continuously
recurring phase of policy inquiry in which analysts
search among competing problem formulations of
different stakeholders, is no doubt the most
important activity performed by policy analysts.
 It is so important because policy analysts seem to
fail more often because they solve the wrong
problem than because they get the wrong solution
to the right problem.
Nature of Policy Problems
 Beyond problem solving.
– Policy analysis is a dynamic, multilevel process
in which methods of problem structuring take
priority over methods of problem solving (see
figure).
Priority of Problem Structuring in
Policy Analysis
Problem
Sensing
PROBLEM
SITUATION
Problem
Structuring
Problem
Dissolving
POLICY
PROBLEM
NO
Problem
Unsolving
RIGHT
PROBLEM?
YES
Problem
Solving
POLICY
SOLUTION
YES
POLICY
SOLUTION?
Problem
Resolving
Nature of Policy Problems
 Beyond problem solving.
– Distinctions among problem-related processes.
• Problem sensing versus problem structuring.
• Problem structuring versus problem solving.
• Problem resolving versus problem unsolving and problem
dissolving.
 Characteristics of problems.
– Interdependence of policy problems (policy messes).
• Analytic versus holistic approaches.
– Subjectivity of policy problems.
– Artificiality of policy problems.
– Dynamics of policy problems.
Nature of Policy Problems
 Characteristics of problems (contd.)
– In short, systems of problems (messes) cannot be
decomposed into independent subsets without running
the risk of producing the right solution to the wrong
problem.
– The whole is greater (qualitatively different) than the
sum of its parts.
– A recognition of the interdependence, subjectivity,
artificiality, and dynamics of policy problems alerts us
to the possible unanticipated consequences that may
follow from policies based on the right solution to the
wrong problem.
Nature of Policy Problems
 Problems versus issues.
– If policy problems are really systems of
problems, then policy issues are equally
complex.
– Policy issues reflect not only conflict over
courses of actions, but over definitions of the
problem.
Nature of Policy Problems
Major Issues
Secondary Issues
Functional Issues
Minor Issues
Nature of Policy Problems
 Problems versus issues.
– Major issues.
• Those encountered at highest levels of government
within and between federal, state, and local
jurisdictions.
• Involve questions of agency mission.
– Secondary issues.
• Located at the level of agency programs at the
federal, state, and local levels.
• The setting of program priorities and the definition
of target groups and beneficiaries.
Nature of Policy Problems
 Problems versus issues.
– Functional issues.
• Located at both the program and project levels.
• Involve questions of budget, finance, and
procurement.
– Minor issues.
• Located at the level of specific projects.
• Involve questions of personnel, staffing, employee
benefits, vacation times, working hours, and
standard operating procedures.
Nature of Policy Problems
 Problems versus issues.
– Strategic policies are policies where the
consequences are relatively irreversible.
– Operational polices are policies where the
consequences are relatively reversible.
Nature of Policy Problems
 Three classes of policy problems.
– Well-structured.
• Prototype: completely computerized decision
problems.
– Moderately structured.
• Prototype: prisoner’s dilemma.
– Ill-structured.
• Prototype: most important problems.
Nature of Policy Problems
STRUCTURE OF PROBLEM
Moderately
Structured
ELEMENT
Well structured
Ill Structured
Decision maker(s)
One or few
One or few
Many
Alternatives
Limited
Limited
Unlimited
Utilities (values)
Consensus
Consensus
Conflict
Outcomes
Certainty or risk
Uncertainty
Unknown
Probabilities
Calculable
Incalculable
Incalculable
Problem Structuring in Policy
Analysis
 The requirements for solving ill-structured
problems demand that the analyst take an
active role in defining the problem.
Problem Structuring in Policy
Analysis
 Creativity in problem structuring.
– The product of the analysis is sufficiently novel that
most people could not or would not have arrived at the
same solution;
– The process of analysis is sufficiently unconventional
that it involves the modification or rejection of previous
accepted ideas;
– The process of analysis requires sufficiently high
motivation and persistence that analysis takes place
with high intensity or over long periods of time;
Problem Structuring in Policy
Analysis
 Creativity in problem structuring (contd.).
– The product of analysis is regarded as valuable
by analysts, policymakers, and other
stakeholders, since it provides an appropriate
solution to the problem; And.
– The problem initially posed is so ambiguous,
value, and ill defined that part of the task is to
formulate the problem itself.
Problem Structuring in Policy
Analysis
 Phases of problem structuring.
– Problem search.
– Problem definition.
– Problem specification.
– Problem sensing.
Problem Structuring in Policy
Analysis
METAPROBLEM
Problem
Definition
Problem
Search
PROBLEM
SITUATION
SUBSTANTIVE
PROBLEM
Problem
Sensing
Problem
Specification
FORMAL PROBLEM
Problem Structuring in Policy
Analysis
 Errors of the third type (EIII).
– How well do the substantive and formal problems
correspond to the original problem situation?
• If most problem situations are messes, then models should
reflect complexity.
– Types of errors.
• Type I – rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.
• Type II – accepting the null hypothesis when it is false.
• Type III – solving the wrong problem.
Types of Policy Models
 Policy models are simplified representations
of selected aspects of a problem situation
constructed for specific purposes.
– By definition, they are artificial constructs.
 Descriptive models.
– The purpose of descriptive models is to explain
and/or predict the causes and consequences of
policy choices.
• Used to monitor the outcomes of policy actions and
to forecast performance.
Types of Policy Models
 Normative models.
– Explain and predict, but also to provide rules
and recommendations for optimizing some
utility or value.
– Example: compound interest.
S n  (1  r ) S 0
n
Forms of Policy Models
 Verbal models.
– Expressed in everyday language.
– The equivalent of substantive problems.
– Limitation: the reasons for recommendations and
predictions may be hidden.
 Symbolic models.
– Use mathematical symbols to describe relationships
among key variables believed to characterize a
problem. The premises must be made explicit.
Y  a  bX
Adjusted income 2000
Forms of Policy Models
Table 1. Mean education and mean income
Birmingham, Alabama neighborhoods
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Rsq = 0.6369
0.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
Proportion with high school or higher
.9
1.0
Forms of Policy Models
 Procedural models.
– Represent dynamic relationships among
variables believed to characterize a policy
problem.
– Example:
• Decision tree.
Methods of Problem Structuring
 Boundary analysis (used to estimate boundaries of
metaproblem).
– Saturation sampling.
– Elicitation of problem representations.
– Boundary estimation.
 Classificational analysis.
– Uses logical division and logical classification.
– Criteria.
•
•
•
•
•
Substantive relevance.
Exhaustiveness.
Disjointness.
Consistency.
Hierarchical distinctiveness.
Methods of Problem Structuring
 Hierarchy analysis.
– Possible clauses, plausible causes, and
actionable causes.
– Uses same rules as classificational analysis.
 Synectics.
– Personal analogies.
– Direct analogies.
– Symbolic analogies.
– Fantasy analogies.
Methods of Problem Structuring
 Brainstorming.
– Groups should be composed of knowledgeable subjects.
– Idea generation and idea evaluation should be kept
separate.
– Atmosphere should be open and permissive.
– Idea-evaluating should only begin after idea-generating
has ceased.
– At the end of idea-evaluating, ideas should be
prioritized and incorporated into a proposal that
contains a conceptualization of the problem and its
potential solutions.
Methods of Problem Structuring
 Multiple perspective analysis.
– Technical perspective.
– Organizational perspective.
– Personal perspective.
 Assumptional analysis.
– Stakeholder identification.
– Assumption surfacing.
– Assumption challenging.
– Assumption pooling.
– Assumption synthesis.
Methods of Problem Structuring
 Argumentation mapping.
– Assessing probability and plausibility of policy
argument warrants.