Transcript The BCA in FY 2014 and Beyond NASBO Annual Meeting Anchorage, AK July 23, 2013 Federal Funds Information for States www.ffis.org.

The BCA in FY 2014 and Beyond
NASBO Annual Meeting
Anchorage, AK
July 23, 2013
Federal Funds
Information for States
www.ffis.org
How did we get here?
Federal Receipts and Outlays, 2000-2017
5000
4500
4000
3000
2500
2000
Receipts
1500
Outlays
1000
500
Source: OMB for 2000-2013; CBO for 2014-2017
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
Billions
3500
The BCA in a nutshell
1.
Discretionary spending caps w/adjustments
2.
Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (to
address mandatory spending and revenues)
3.
Sequestration process (as fallback)
The federal budget in a nutshell
(FY 2012, $ in billions)
Defense, $671
(19%)
Net Interest, $220
(6%)
Domestic
Discretionary,
$616 (17%)
Other Mandatory,
$546 (16%)
Social Security,
$768 (22%)
Medicare, $466
(13%)
Medicaid, $251
(7%)
How sequestration works




$984 billion in cuts through FY 2021 (~$109 billion/year,
half from defense, half from nondefense)
FY 2013 sequestration occurred on March 1, 2013
– “Fix” reduced cuts from $109b to $85b
Many mandatory and a few discretionary programs are
exempt (special rules for some programs)
ATB cuts in FY 2013, different process for FY 2014+
How sequestration was implemented
in FY 2013

ATB cuts: -5.0% for nondefense discretionary, -5.1% for
nondefense mandatory, -7.8% for defense
–



Applied to FY 2013 funding in place on 3/1/13
Cuts were applied to each program, project and activity
(interpretation varied by agency)
Final 2013 appropriation levels and existing agency
flexibility mitigated or worsened effects of sequester in
some instances
Cuts reflected in grant awards issued after March 1, 2013
–
Timing varied by program
Sequestration in FY 2013 vs. FY 2014
FY 2013
FY 2014
ATB (-5.1%)
ATB (-7.2% est.)
Program Exemptions
Yes
Yes
Effective Date
March 1, 2013
October 1, 2013
Flexibility
PPA
PPA
ATB (-5.0%)
Lower Caps
Program Exemptions
Yes
No
Effective Date
March 1, 2013
October 1, 2013
Flexibility
PPA
Appropriation Account
Enforcement
N/A
Same as FY 2013
Mandatory
Discretionary
House and Senate take divergent paths in
FY 2014, neither of which conforms to BCA
Implications of Various Scenarios on FY 2014 Discretionary Appropriations
($ in billions)
FY 2013
Category
Nondefense
Defense
BCA
501
546
$1,047
ATRA
499
544
$1,043
FY 2014
Postsequester
478
509
$986
BCA with Change from
Sequester
FY 2013
469
-8
498
-11
$968
-$19
Senate*
506
552
$1,058
* FY 2014 Senate equals presequester caps under BCA/ATRA.
Source: Bipartisan Policy Center for FY 2013 post-sequester and all FY 2014 data (June 3, 2013)
Change from
FY 2013
28
43
$72
House
415
552
$967
Change from
FY 2013
-62
43
-$19
Divergent paths lead to different
outcomes for states
302(b) Allocations for FY 2014
(discretionary budget authority; $ in billions)
Subcommittee
Agriculture
Commerce-Justice-Science
Defense
Energy-Water
Financial Services
Homeland Security
Interior-Environment
Labor-Health & Human ServicesEducation
Legislative Branch
Military Construction-Veterans
Affairs
State-Foreign Operations
Transportation-Housing & Urban
Development
Total
FY 2013
$19.560
47.020
486.297
34.263
19.874
37.759
28.240
FY 2014 Change from FY 2013
House
Dollars
Percent
$19.450
-$0.110
-0.6%
47.396
0.376
0.8%
512.522
26.225
5.4%
30.426
-3.837
-11.2%
16.966
-2.908
-14.6%
38.991
1.232
3.3%
24.278
-3.962
-14.0%
FY 2014
Senate
$20.930
52.272
516.624
34.773
23.031
39.100
30.100
Change from FY 2013
Dollars
Percent
$1.370
7.0%
5.252
11.2%
30.327
6.2%
0.51
1.5%
3.157
15.9%
1.341
3.6%
1.86
6.6%
149.640
4.061
121.797
4.124
-27.843
0.063
-18.6%
1.6%
164.330
4.350
14.69
0.289
9.8%
7.1%
70.909
40.358
73.320
34.103
2.411
-6.255
3.4%
-15.5%
74.366
44.079
3.457
3.721
4.9%
9.2%
48.411
$986.392
44.100
$967.473
-4.311
-$18.919
-8.9%
-1.9%
54.045
$1,058.000
5.634
$71.608
11.6%
7.3%
Progress of a sort has been made
Status of FY 2014 Appropriations
Appropriations Subcommittee
Agriculture
Commerce/Justice Science
Defense
Energy & Water
Financial Services
Homeland Security
Interior & Environment
Labor/HHS/Education
Legislative Branch
Military/Veterans
State/Foreign Operations
Transportation/HUD
House
Committee
Committee
Committee
Full House
Committee
Full House
Senate
Committee
Subcommittee
Committee
Subcommittee
Subcommittee
Full House
Committee
Committee
Committee
Committee
Committee
How do major grant programs fare?
Federal Agency
($ in
millions)
($ in
millions)
FY 2012
FY 2013
Proposed FY 2014 vs.
FY 2013
President
House
Senate
Agriculture
$6,861
$6,766
9.6%
2.3%
8.5%
Education
37,273
35,341
8.7%
n/a
6.0%
Health and Human
Services
25,180
24,127
9.6%
n/a
13.5%
HUD
40,812
39,421
11.5%
-0.9%
12.2%
Energy/EPA
63,183
63,288
1.5%
-8.2%
1.9%
Justice
1,251
1,221
4.6%
-13.0%
-2.1%
Homeland Security
1,254
1,359
9.9%
28.4%
8.7%
Labor
6,579
6,176
4.3%
n/a
3.5%
54,098
54,532
0.9%
1.4%
1.7%
Transportation
What are congressional priorities?
Must Do
Things to Watch
Enact a budget for FY 2014
Immigration reform
Reauthorize or extend Farm Bill
ESEA reauthorization
Reauthorize or extend TANF
WIA reauthorization
Raise debt limit
DATA Act
Early Childhood Education
The BCA becomes less restrictive
going forward
The Budget Control Act: Sequestration and Discretionary Caps FYs 2013-2021
(dollars in billions)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
$499.0
-25.8
473.2
NA
$506.0
-37.0
469.0
-4.2
-0.9%
$520.0
-36.7
483.3
14.3
3.0%
$530.0
-36.5
493.5
10.2
2.1%
$541.0
-36.0
505.0
11.5
2.3%
$553.0
-35.4
517.6
12.6
2.5%
$566.0
-34.5
531.5
13.9
2.7%
$578.0
-33.0
545.0
13.5
2.5%
$590.0
-32.2
557.8
12.8
2.3%
Nondefense, mandatory sequestration in BCA/ATRA
Sequestration: 2% Medicare
Sequestration: other nonexempt mandatory
-11.3
-5.5
-11.6
-6.0
-12.3
-5.7
-12.8
-5.4
-13.6
-5.0
-14.7
-4.6
-15.7
-4.5
-16.9
-4.8
-18.2
-4.2
Defense caps in BCA/ATRA
Sequestration
Subtotal
Subtotal Change From Previous Year
544.0
-42.7
501.3
NA
552.0
-54.6
497.4
-3.9
566.0
-54.6
511.4
14.0
577.0
-54.6
522.4
11.0
590.0
-54.7
535.3
12.9
603.0
-54.7
548.3
13.0
616.0
-54.7
561.3
13.0
630.0
-54.7
575.3
14.0
644.0
-54.7
589.3
14.0
Total discretionary spending under BCA/ATRA
Change from previous year
974.5
NA
966.4
-8.1
994.7
28.3
1,015.9
21.2
1,040.3
24.4
1,065.9
25.6
1,092.8
26.9
1,120.3
27.5
1,147.1
26.8
Nondefense caps in BCA/ATRA
Sequestration: nondefense discretionary
Subtotal
Change From Previous Year ($)
Change From Previous Year (%)
Source: FFIS, based on sequestration estimates of Center on Budget & Policy Priorities
Discretionary spending grows after
FY 2014, even with sequestration
Questions, Comments, Difficulties
•
•
•
•
•
The House and Senate are proceeding based on their own
budget resolutions, which are vastly different from one
another.
How and when will the gaps be bridged?
Will FY 2014 begin with a CR?
“Action-forcing” event: raising the debt ceiling.
After FY 2014, discretionary spending increases under the
BCA, even with sequestration.