Transcript Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at The WIOD database: Construction and first results on the factor content of trade Robert Stehrer The Vienna.

Wiener Institut für
Internationale
Wirtschaftsvergleiche
The Vienna Institute for
International Economic
Studies
www.wiiw.ac.at
The WIOD database: Construction and
first results on the factor content of trade
Robert Stehrer
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
[email protected]
WPTGS workshop, October 6, 2010 – OECD Paris
Version: 2010-10-06
The WIOD-project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General
as part of the 7th Framework Programme, Theme 8: Socio-Economic Sciences and
Humanities, Grant Agreement no: 225 281.
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WIOD project – www.wiod.org
 Project funded within the 7th framework program of the EU
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10+OECD partners involved
 Project started in May 2009 and ends in April 2012
 Construction and applications
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Construction of inter-country SUT/IO tables
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Data publicly available in May 2012
 Should allow for a wide range of applications
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Socioeconomic issues
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Environmental issues
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(Policy) Modelling
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WIOD project – Data coverage
 Inter-country Supply-Use and Input-Output tables
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Benchmarked to NA data
 Period: 1995-2006
 40 countries included
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EU-15 countries
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EU-12 countries
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NAFTA: Canada, USA, Mexico
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BRI: Brazil, Russia, India
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CHN: China
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OTHER: Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Australia
 Sector and product classifications of SUTs
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59 products (corresponding to CPA)
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35 industries (corresponding to NACE rev. 1)
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WIOD project – Data coverage
 Trade data
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Goods trade (HS 6-digit – use category – CPA)
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Services trade (BoP codes)
 Plus satellite accounts
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Energy and environment
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Socio-economic indicators (capital and labour)
 Deflated tables
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Construction of International SUTs
 1. Time-series of SUTs at purchasers’ prices
 Extrapolation and benchmarking of SUTs to National Accounts statistics, based
on SUT-RAS method
 2. From SUTs at purchasers’ prices to basic prices
 Construction of net tax, trade and transport margin matrices
 3. From national to inter-country SUTs
 Breakdown of USE table into domestic and imported (by supplying country)
 Based on HS6 to end-use categorisation (improving on BEC)
 Breakdown by supplying country differentiated by use categories
 In later stage use import tables from NSIs if available
 Rest of World: exports to RoW is calculated as residual and can become
negative
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Construction of International WIOT
4. From SUTs to inter-country input-output table
 Technology assumptions (on product sales or production)
5. From current price to constant price tables
 National deflators based on industry gross output deflators, and row wise
deflation of SUT. At later stage add in more information from national accounts
 International deflators (PPPs): World Bank ICP expenditure PPPs adjusted and
allocated to industries (for 2005)
For details see documentation on WIOD webpage:
A.A. Erumbam, R. Gouma, B. Los, R. Stehrer, U. Temurshoev, M. Timmer, and G. de Vries (2010): World Input-Output
Database: Construction and Applications.
U. Temurshoev and Timmer (2009): SUT-RAS procedure.
J. Francois and O. Pindyuk (2010): WIOD service trade data.
J. Pöschl and R. Stehrer (2010): WIOD goods trade data.
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Construction of International WIOT
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Country A
Country B
Rest of
World
Intermediate
use
Intermediate
use
Intermediate
use
Industry
Industry
Industry
Final
domestic
use
Final
domestic
use
Final
domestic
use
Total
Industry
Rest of World
(RoW)
Rest of World
Intermediate
use of
domestic
output
Intermediate Intermediate
Final use by
Final use of Final use by
use by B of use by RoW of
RoW of
Output
domestic B of exports
imports from imports from
exports from
in A
output
from A
A
A
A
Industry
Country B
Country B
Intermediate
use by A of
imports from
B
Intermediate Intermediate
Final use by
Final use by Final use of
use of
use by RoW of
RoW of
Output
A of exports domestic
domestic
imports from
exports from
in B
from B
output
output
B
B
Industry
Country A
Country A
Intermediate
use by A of
imports from
RoW
Intermediate
use by B of
imports from
RoW
Value added
Output in A
Value added Value added
Output in B Output in RoW
Intermediate
Final use by Final use by Final use of
use of
A of exports B of exports domestic
domestic
from RoW
from RoW
output
output
Output
in RoW
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The bilateral factor content of trade
(preliminary results)
Accounting for trade in intermediates
(following Reimer, JIE 2006; Trefler and Zhu, JIE 2010)
N … Number of countries; G … Number of industries; F … Number of factors
Direct plus indirect factor input
B  D( I  A)1
A … coefficient matrix of dimension NG x NG
D … direct factor input matrix of dimension F x NG
Bilateral (NG x N) import matrix
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T
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The bilateral factor content of trade
Factor content of trade for country c
f  Bt
c
c
c
Diagonalization of t results in
• Bilateral trade matrix Tk for factor k allowing for
• Bilateral and sector specific calculations
• Focus on bilateral factor services flows
NOTE:
• ROW not included in calculations
• Results are preliminary as partly relying on imputed values
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Selected results: Net exports of EU-15
Trade in goods and services
in mio US-$
in mio US-$
BRI
CHN
EU12
BRI
300000
300000
200000
200000
100000
100000
0
0
-100000
-100000
-200000
-200000
-300000
-300000
1995
10
Trade in value added
2000
2006
CHN
1995
EU12
2000
NAFTA
OTHER
2006
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Selected results: Structure of value added trade
Exports
BRI
CHN
Imports
EU12
NAFTA
OTHER
EU15
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
CHN
EU12
NAFTA
OTHER
EU15
0%
1995
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BRI
2000
2006
1995
2000
2006
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Selected results: Structure of value added trade
not including intra EU-15 trade
Exports
BRI
CHN
Imports
EU12
NAFTA
OTHER
BRI
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
1995
12
2000
2006
CHN
EU12
NAFTA
OTHER
0%
1995
2000
2006
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Trade in value added by various factors
not including intra EU-15 trade
• Capital
•ICT capital
•Non-ICT capital
Capital
Labour
100%
90%
80%
70%
• Labour
• Low educated
• Medium educated
• High educated
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995
2000
2006
Value added exports
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1995
2000
2006
Value added imports
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Trade in value added by various factors
not including intra-EU trade
ICT capital
Non-ICT capital
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
1995
2000
2006
1995
2000
2006
Value added exports Value added imports
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1995
High
Medium
2000
2006
Low
1995
2000
2006
Value added exports Value added imports
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Structure of net exports of VA by selected industries
Textile and textile products
Leather and leather products
(NACE 17 and 18)
(NACE 19)
BRI
CHN
EU12
NAFTA
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
-40%
-40%
-60%
-60%
-80%
-80%
-100%
1995
15
BRI
OTHER
2000
2006
CHN
EU12
NAFTA
OTHER
-100%
1995
2000
2006
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Structure of net exports of VA by selected industries
Transport equipment
Electrical and optical equ.
(NACE 34 and 35)
(NACE 30 to 33)
BRI
CHN
EU12
NAFTA
BRI
OTHER
CHN
EU12
NAFTA
OTHER
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
-40%
-40%
-60%
-60%
-80%
-80%
-100%
1995
16
2000
2006
1995
2000
2006
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Next steps
 Improving bilateral trade in services and trade in goods
 Improving breakdown by use categories (see below)
 Comparing our use-classification of trade flows with official import IO tables.
 Improving factor input data for non-OECD countries
 as part of work by World KLEMS consortium
 Constant price series
 National deflators
 Purchasing power parities for output and intermediate inputs
 Volume masures of labour and capital
 Processing export trade tables for Mexico and China
 Testing by users
 Available to consortium members
 Full availability in May 2012
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Appendix:
Use categories and proportionality assumptions
 Breakdown of imports by use categories
- Based on trade data (revised BEC correspondence)
- Based on information from existing import tables
 Breakdown of each cell by country of origin
- Differentiated for intermediates, final consumption and gross
fixed capital formation
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Comparisons of use breakdown
 Use existing import USE or SIO tables
- Eurostat
- OECD
 Shares of imported intermediates in total imports
- Compare to BEC or BEC-WIOD categorisation
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Comparisons to SIOT data
Share of imported intermediates in total imports
NACE 34 - Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
2000
2005
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
Shares from IO data
SVK
HUN
0.6
SWE
ESP
SVN AUT
BEL POL
DEU
FRA
0.4
LVA
0.6
AUT
ESP DEU
0.4
PRT SVN
FRA
PRT
FIN
NLD
FIN
ITA
0.2
ITA
GRC DNK
EST
0.2
SWE
HUN
EST
GRC DNK
IRL
LTU
0
20
.2
.4
.6
Shares from trade data
ROM
0.0
ROM
0.0
NLD
.8
1
0
.2
.4
.6
Shares from trade data
.8
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Comparisons to SIOT data
Share of imported intermediates in total imports
NACE 35 - Other transport equipment
2005
2000
1.0
0.8
0.8
NLD
0.6
FRA
SWE
EST
BEL HUN
ROMSVK IRL
SVN
LVA
0.4
ITA
ESP
FIN
PRT
0.2
GRC
Shares from IO data
1.0
SWE
0.6
PRT
ESP
0.4
NLD
SVN
ROM
EST
DNK
DEU
0.2
LTU
FIN
DEU
AUT
AUT
POL
DNK
GRC
0.0
0.0
0
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FRA
ITA
HUN
.2
.4
.6
Shares from trade data
.8
1
0
.2
.6
.4
Shares from trade data
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Comparisons to SIOT data
Share of imported intermediates in total imports
NACE 18 – Wearing apparel, furs
2005
2000
0.6
SVN LVA
ITA
FIN
Import shares from IO data
0.4
HUN
0.4
EST
ITA
0.2
SVK
SWE
BELFRA
PRTDEU
AUT
DNK
IRL
0
ROM
ESP
.02
POL
PRT
EST
0.2
SWE
FRA
0.1
DEU
LTU
.04
.06
Shares from trade data
.08
.1
GRC
ROM
GRC
ESP
0.0
Note different scales
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FIN
HUN
NLD
AUT
SVNDNK
NLD
0.0
0.3
0
.02
.08
.06
.04
Import shares from trade data
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Product descriptions
 Product descriptions at detailed level are not sufficient to
differentiate between use categories
Example: HS 6101 and 6105
6101 Men's or boys' overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets), wind-cheaters, wind-jackets and similar
articles, knitted or crocheted, other than those of heading No 6103
6101 10 - Of wool or fine animal hair
6101 20 - Of cotton
6101 30 - Of man-made fibres
6101 90 - Of other textile materials
6105 Men's or boys' shirts, knitted or crocheted
6105 10 - Of cotton
6105 20 - Of man-made fibres
6105 90 - Of other textile materials
 Country-specific adjustments, weights, etc. used by NSIs
 Additionally, specific problems for particular products (cars, light
bulbs, etc.)
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Conclusions
 Give weights to use categories
 Further improvements by including information from existing
import tables
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Breakdown into use categories
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Allocation of intermediate product over using industries
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Comments to ...
Robert Stehrer
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies – wiiw
www.wiiw.ac.at
[email protected]
The WIOD project: www.wiod.org
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