Transcript MOGREPS developments and TIGGE Richard Swinbank GIFS-TIGGE meeting March 2014 © Crown copyright Met Office.

MOGREPS developments and
TIGGE
Richard Swinbank
GIFS-TIGGE meeting
March 2014
© Crown copyright Met Office
MOGREPS domains 2013
2.2km grid
Up to 36hr
6-hourly update
Regional
ensemble now
stopped
33km grid
Up to 72hr
6-hourly update
© Crown copyright Met Office
MOGREPS –
The Met Office ensemble
• The Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble
Prediction System (MOGREPS) is designed to quantify
the risks associated with high-impact weather and
uncertainties in details of forecasts.
• 12-member ensemble designed for short-range
forecasting
• Global ensemble run to T+72 at 00, 06, 12 and18 UTC.
(N400 ~33 km grid, 70 levels)
• UK ensemble run to T+36 at 03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC
(2.2km, 70 levels ~40km lid)
• Many probabilistic forecast products are based on a lagged
pair of ensemble runs (24 members)
• 24-member medium-range ensemble – MOGREPS-15
• Global ensemble run to T+360 at 00 and 12 UTC, (N216
~60km grid, 85 levels)
• Archived in TIGGE dataset
Global Ensemble strategy
• Met Office strategy is to focus on producing
forecasts for week 1 with our own MetUM NWP
system, and..
• Use ECMWF as primary source of forecasts at
week 2-4, in combination with GloSea (our
coupled seasonal prediction system) and using
multi-model ensemble techniques.
• MOGREPS-G will be extended and
MOGREPS-15 will be retired.
• (It was decided not to implement the earlier
proposal to merge MOGREPS-15 and GloSea.)
Changes affecting TIGGE
• At parallel suite 34 (implementation approx.
June 2014):
• MOGREPS-G and MOGREPS-15 will switch to use
improved ENDGAME dynamical core.
• Extend MOGREPS-G (N400 / 33km) to 7+days
(T+174)
• MOGREPS-G will supply TIGGE archive
• (NB. We may not be able to produce the full set of
current fields, since the method to produce the GRIB2
data feed will change.)
• In about a year MOGREPS-15 will be retired
• Once post-processing has been switched to use
MOGREPS-G, ECMWF ENS, etc.
Thank-you
any questions…?
© Crown copyright Met Office