Transcript Just Jobs for Growth and Stability Global Employment Trends and Employment Trends in MENA and Egypt D.

Just Jobs for Growth and Stability
Global Employment Trends and
Employment Trends in MENA and
Egypt
D. Schmidt
Employment Specialist
ILO Decent Work Team for North Africa
Part 1:
Global Employment Trends 2011:
The Challenge of a Jobs Recovery
Key findings of GET 2011
i.
Economic recovery has not been matched by a comparable
employment recovery
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Divergent paths: developed versus developing economies
ii. Unemployment remains elevated
iii. Growing number of discouraged workers, particularly
affecting youth
iv. Pressure on employment quality, lag in recovery in wages
v. Slowed progress in reducing vulnerable employment and
working poverty
vi. Continued economic growth in 2011, yet downside risks
predominate and unemployment will remain high
Global employment
Steep declines in many developed economies mar global increase
Total employment - upper bound estimate
Total employment - preliminary estimate
Total employment - lower bound estimate
Total employment
Employment to population ratio
3.2
61.8
3.1
61.6
3.0
61.4
2.9
61.2
2.8
61.0
2.7
60.8
2.6
60.6
2.5
60.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Percentage
Billions
Employment to population ratio - confidence interval lower and upper bounds
Global unemployment
Unemployment remains elevated
Total unemployment - upper bound estimate
Total unemployment - preliminary estimate
Total unemployment - lower bound estimate
Total unemployment
Real GDP growth rate
Total unemployment rate
Total unemployment rate - confidence interval lower and upper bounds
8.0
230
7.0
220
6.0
210
5.0
200
4.0
190
3.0
180
2.0
170
1.0
160
0.0
150
-1.0
140
-2.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Percentage
Millions
240
Global unemployment
Developed economies account for most of unemployment increase
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205 million unemployed in 2010, up 27.6 million
since 2007
Projected global unemployment of 203.3 million in
2011.
Unemployment remains elevated in the Developed
Economies and EU, Central and South-Eastern Europe,
Latin America and Caribbean and North Africa regions.
Discouragement hides additional “unemployed”
Increase in part-time work
Pressure on employment quality
Global labour productivity fell as employment increased
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Global output per worker declined by 1.4%
in 2009, grew by 3.1% in 2010
Global real monthly wages rose by 0.7
percent in 2009, down from 0.8 percent
growth in 2008 and 2.2 percent in 2007.
The delay in the labour market recovery is
seen with the sluggish resumption of wage
growth in many countries
Employment by sector
Industrial employment hit hardest
Share in total employment (percent)
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
Employment in
services
Employment in
agriculture
Employment in
industry
20.0
15.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Vulnerable employment
Stagnating progress in reducing vulnerable employment
1.6
Vulnerable employment
54.0
Vulnerable employment (billions)
1.5
52.0
1.4
50.0
1.3
48.0
1.2
46.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Vulnerable employment rate
(percent)
Vulnerable employment rate
Working poverty (USD 1.25 a day)
Slowed progress in reducing working poverty
35.0
Working poor
Working poverty
rate
Pre-crisis trend
(2002-2007)
800
30.0
600
25.0
400
20.0
200
15.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Working poverty rate (percent)
Working poor (millions)
1000
Part 2:
Labour Markets in the MENA region
Labour market situation prior
to the crises and thereafter in
MENA
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Slightly positive trends before the crisis were
interrupted during the crisis but not reversed
Key challenges remain the same:
– Low employment-to-population ratios (46.2% in
2010)
– High unemployment rates (10.1%), especially for
women (15.8%) and youth (24.8%, 21.5% male
and 33% female)
– Unemployment across all levels of income and
education
– Lack of high quality jobs (persistence of vulnerable
employment (37% in 2009) and working poverty at
USDollar 2 a day (especially in North Africa with
1/3 of total employment)
Labour market situation prior
to the crises and thereafter in
MENA
Key challenges remain the same:
– Slow structural shifts (26.2 agr.; 52.3 services;
21.5 industry)
– High share of public sector employment (1/3)
– Limited growth in productivity
– Lack of social dialogue
– Lack of social protection
– Skills issues
 Mismatch
 Lack of investment in workers
 Work attitudes
 Employer’s attitudes
Youth unemployment
35.0
Developed Economies & European
Union
30.0
Central & South Eastern Europe (nonEU) & CIS
25.0
East Asia
South East Asia & the Pacific
20.0
South Asia
15.0
Latin America & the Caribbean
10.0
Middle East
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
5.0
North Africa
Employment-topopulation ratio
Sub-Saharan Africa
North Africa
Middle East
Latin America
Emp-Pop female 2010
South Asia
Emp-Pop youth male 2010
Emp-Pop female 2010
South East Asia & the Pacific
Emp-Pop male 2010
Emp-Pop 2010
East Asia
Central & South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
Developed Economies & European Union
WORLD
0.0
10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
Productivity and productivity growth
250
245
240
235
230
225
220
215
210
205
200
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
80,000
70,000
Developed Economies & European Union
Central & South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
East Asia
South East Asia & the Pacific
South Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Middle East
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
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Central & South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
East Asia
South East Asia & the Pacific
South Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Middle East
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010
Developed Economies & European Union
Source: Montenegro and Hirn (2009)
Part 3: Egypt
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The greatest threat to Egypt’s economic and social progress is its
tremendous lack of decent work opportunities for young people
(aged 15 to 29)
Unemployment rate: 14 % for young men
45 % for young women
And: Young people have to accept low productivity, low paid and
insecure jobs, far below their capabilities.
Some more facts
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A rapidly increasing labour force - 700,000 new entrants every year translating
into high unemployment rates especially for young people and women and
across all levels of education.
Unemployment appears across all income groups and educational levels
Roughly 3 out of 10 people working in Egypt occupy a vulnerable job
Agriculture accounted for almost one third of all employed people in 2009. The
largest sector is the service sector that accounts for roughly 45 per cent of
overall employment.
High share of public sector employment
Limited growth in productivity
Poor quality of education systems including of vocational training–
Non-conducive environment for MSMEs
Mismanaged migration
Limited existence of solid analysis of labour markets and of labour market
policies
Low wage and ridiculous minimum wage
Weak Social Dialogue
Limited social protection
Non functioning employment services
Etc....
Root causes
• Focus on macro-economic indicators
•Job creation is lacking behind population growth
• Skills produced often do not match labour market needs
• Expectations of young people and enterprises do not match
• The matching process between supply and demand is not working
• Not many young people are engaged in self-employment
• The responsible Ministry (Ministry of Manpower and Migration) is not in a
strong enough position to fulfil its mandate
• Interventions have often been fragmented and not
Interlinked
•Partnerships in youth employment related areas are not working well,
neither at the national level, nor at the regional or local level
• Labour market institutions lack capacity
•...
Social Dialogue
SUPPLY
SIDE
MATCHING PROCESS
Social Protection
DEMAND
SIDE
Thank you for your attention