Transcript Brasilia launch presentation Ambassador Richard H. Jones IEA Deputy Executive Director 10 July 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012

Brasilia launch presentation
Ambassador Richard H. Jones
IEA Deputy Executive Director
10 July 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
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Sustainable future still in reach
Is a clean energy
transition urgent?
Are we on track to
reach a clean
energy future?
Can we get on
track?
YES ✓
NO ✗
YES ✓
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Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
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Non-hydro sources spread out widely
60
40
20
Onshore
wind
Offshore
wind
Bioenergy
Solar PV
CSP
Geothermal
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
0
2005
Number of countries (>100MW)
80
Ocean
IEA MRMR 2012
Growth is expected to shift beyond traditional support markets (OECD) to all regions
Number of countries with installations >100MW increases significantly
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Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
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A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
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Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
45 000
Other
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass and waste
Oil
Gas with CCS
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
40 000
35 000
TWh
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Renewables will generate more than
half the world’s electricity in the 2DS
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Hydropower is a giant
Hydropower generation [TWh]
8 000
7 000
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
6 000
Other non-OECD Asia
Other Latin America
5 000
China
4 000
Brazil
3 000
Africa and Middle East
2 000
OECD Europe
1 000
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Americas
0
1990
2000
Historic
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2DS
Hydropower will continue to play a major role in power generation:
hydropower generation more than doubles in the 2DS compared to today.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Power Generation from Natural Gas
TWh
Natural Gas: a transitional fuel
7 500
5 000
2 500
0
2009
2020
OECD
2030
China
India
2040
2050
Other non-OECD
Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’
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The CCS infant must grow quickly
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
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Translating targets into action
8
million sales/year
7
Manufacturers
production/sales
6
5
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2018
2020
2020
Government targets need to be backed by policy action.
Electric vehicles provide a good example.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Building sector challenges differ
Billion households
,2.5
,2.0
,1.5
,1.0
,0.5
,0.0
2010
OECD
2020
2030
2040
2050
Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
Heating & Cooling: huge potential
Renewable heat
Integration with electricity
District heating and
cooling network
Co-generation
Surplus heat
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.
Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
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Brazil’s CO2 emissions need to fall by 60%
Transport sector decarbonisation
as main source of CO2 reduction
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Increased gas use in Brazil’s electricity leads
to higher emissions in the 4 degree scenario
In the 2 degree scenario, renewables - notably hydro, wind
and solar - cover the increase in electricity generation
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Brazil’s industrial energy use rise in all scenarios
Implementation of the 2DS limits increase of CO2 emissions
to 16% from today's level, mainly thanks to energy
efficiency measures
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Brazil leads the way on FFVs
Nearly 90% of new Brazilian light duty vehicles in 2011
are ethanol-gasoline compatible
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Energy efficiency and fuel switching key in the
Brazilian buildings sector
In the 4DS, building energy consumption in 2050 is almost
two times higher than at present
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A low-carbon future for Brazil



At present, Brazil has one of the highest shares of
renewables in its energy mix worldwide
The maintenance of a clean energy matrix and
further mitigation entails opportunities and
challenges
Brazil can maintain a leadership position in the
deployment of low-carbon technologies



Address difficulties that could potentially hamper growth in power
generation from hydropower and wind
Further expand the production and use of sustainable biofuels in the
transport sector
Bring experience and knowledge for international cooperation
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Visualising ETP Data – reductions
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Visualising ETP Data – energy flows
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Visualising ETP Data – fuel flows
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For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012