Transcript SWFDP Synergy with and Contribution to the EAC’s Five-years Meteorological Development Plan and Investment Strategy (2013-2018) By Ruben K.

SWFDP Synergy with and Contribution
to the EAC’s Five-years Meteorological
Development Plan and Investment
Strategy (2013-2018)
By
Ruben K. Barakiza
Institut Geographique du Burundi( IGEBU)
Meteorological Department
P.O.BOX 331 Bujumbura
Email: [email protected]
Burundi
Objectives
EAC 5-year Meteorological
Development Plan and Investment
Strategy
Overall objective: Developing
capabilities of the NMS to
deliver cost effective and
efficient, authoritative, reliable
and
quality
assured
weather/climate services and
products that will,
among
Objectives
others, contribute to safety of
life, protection of property and
environment in support of
sustainable development.
Specific objectives: Coordinate
(with the support of WMO) the
implementation of the SWFDP
in
Eastern
Africa
(full
demonstration “Phase 4”) for
improving
severe
weather
forecasting in the EAC region,
in support of disater risk
reduction and climate change
adaptation; (EAC strategy 2.3.
WMO Severe Weather Forecasting and
Demonstartion Projject( SWFDP)
The main objective of the Severe Weather Forecasting
Demonstration Project (SWFDP) is to test the usefulness
of the products currently available from NWP centres,
or products that could be made available from current
NWP systems, with the goal to improve severe weather
forecasting services in countries where sophisticated
model outputs are not currently used.
Specific goals: According to the recommendations of
the Commission of Basic System (CBS-XIII ) in 2005, the
goals of the SWFDP are as follows:
1.to improve the ability of NMCs to forecast severe
weather events;
2.to improve the lead time of alerting of these events;
3.to improve interaction of NMCs with DMCPA before
and during events;
4.to identify gaps and areas for improvements;
5.to improve the skill of products from Global Data
Processing and Forecasting System( GDPFS) centres
through feedback from NMCs.
Severe weather events
• Currently the SWFDP focuses on the following
severe weather events:
• Heavy rain/flooding
• Deficit of precipitation/dry spells;
• Strong winds in relation to thunderstorms
• Hazardous waves over Indian Ocean and major
lakes in the region
Extreme Weather Events and Associated Impacts
Sector
Settlement,
Health, Public
Safety
Type of Hazard ( extreme weather event)
Heavy rains /flooding
Dry spells/drought
 Drowning leading to loss of life
 Famine and
 Eruption of vector and water borne
malnutrition
diseases such as malaria, and
diarrheal diseases
 Disruption of human settlement
 Disruption of communication
systems
 Deterioration of water quality
Agriculture and
Food Security





Damages to crops
Water logging
Leaching of soil nutrients
Top soil erosion
Increased susceptibility of livestock
and crops to pests and diseases





Water Resources

Rising water levels in rivers resulting in
destruction of bridges
Deterioration of water quality
Mudflow and heavy sedimentation in




Crop failure
Loss of vegetation
Food shortages
food insecurity
General starvation
of people and
livestock in the
affected areas
Water shortages
Loss of vegetation
Strong winds


Disruption of
human settlement
Damage to socioeconomic
infrastructure
(schools, health
centres, etc.)

Physical damages
to crops


Sea level rise
Coastal flooding
The Cascading Forecasting Process
•
In the framework of the general organization of the Global
Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), the SWFDP
implies a co-ordinated functioning among three types of GDPFS
centres.
• These are:
 Global NWP Centres to provide available NWP products,
including in the form of probabilities;
 Regional Centres to interpret information received from the
global NWP centres,
 run limited-area models to refine products,
 liaise with the participating NMCs;
 The NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings;
 to liaise and collaborate with Media, and Disaster Management
and CivilPprotection Authorities; and
 to contribute to the evaluation of the project.
Cascading FCST ( cont’d)
The first phase of this project commenced October 2011 and focused on:
• heavy rain,
• strong winds,
• sea/lake waves, and
• prolonged dry spells.
The participating Services and Centres in the SWFDP Eastern Africa
include:
• NMHSs: Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda
• Regional Centres: RSMC, KMD - Nairobi, RSMC, TMA - Dar es
Salaam; and
• Global Products Centres:
•
•
•
•
Exeter (Met Office UK),
Washington (NOAA/NCEP ),
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast( ECMWF). and
DWD (Germany)
Strategies for disaster risk reduction
Socio-economic sector
Policy, Plan and strategy
 Forecasts of impeding extreme weather/climate events (heavy rains,
National Meteorological
dry spells, drought, strong winds, etc) should be made, and
Service( NMS)
 timely information be disseminated to the relevant institutions
and communities that are most likely to be affected
 Database on risks and vulnerability in human settlement, health and
Human Settlement, Health
public safety should be developed for effective monitoring and early
and Public Safety
warning in the sectors
 Communities should be educated and made aware of types of
weather/climate hazards that can affect their areas, including
preparedness and mitigation strategies
 Strong disaster management committees should be set up in all
administrative regions and local authorities with the aim of mobilizing
resources for disaster risk reduction
 Development of management and coordination structure for weather
Agriculture and Food
and climate information in the agriculture disaster early warning units
Security
 Strengthening of the existing agricultural early warning units by
factoring weather and climate information in the planning,
intervention and recovery
 Establishment of clear linkages and information flow between the
agricultural early warning units, and the National Disaster
Management Office for effective usage of weather/climate early
Strategies ( cont’d)
Socio-economic sector
Policy, Plan and strategy
Water





Disaster Management and 
Civil Protection
Authorities

Enhance meteorological observations and river-gauging networks
Identify, monitor, assess and zone areas that are prone to weather
and climate related disasters in the region
Collaborate to create an integrated water resources database for
research and development
Participate in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) project
initiative to improve the climate and water data quality and quantity
Collaborate to revise the water and meteorological policies in such a
way weather/climate is adequately factored into the water resources
planning and management
The Disaster Management and Civil Protection Office should be
strengthened
The Disaster Management and Civil Protection Office should
strengthen the capacity of vulnerable sectors and communities to
cope with extreme weather/climate trough disaster preparedness
strategies
Concluding Remarks
• Various economic sectors are highly dependant on
and influenced by weather and climate
• A clear knowledge of current and expected
conditions of weather and climate provides the vital
information for important decisions in long-range
planning of these sectors
• Each NMHSs contributes to the disaster
management through its forecasts, advisories and
warnings of severe weather, and the monitoring of
climate.
• WMO SWFDP Synergy with the EAC’s Five-years
Meteorological Development Plan and Investment
Strategy (2013-2018) would enhance early warning
system for disaster risk reduction in the EAC region.
• The END
• THANK YOU FOR LISTENING!!