Transcript 2011 Economic Forecast February 8, 2011 University Plaza Hotel Springfield, Missouri Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research.

2011 Economic Forecast
February 8, 2011
University Plaza Hotel Springfield, Missouri
Dr. David Mitchell, Director
Bureau of Economic Research
Change in Real GDP Qtr. To Qtr.
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
GDP Components
20
10
0
GDP
Consumption Investment Government
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
2007:4 - 2009:2
2009:2 - 2010:4
Exports
Imports
US Employment
148,000
146.5 mil
12/07
144,000
140,000
139.2 mil
12/10
136,000
132,000
128,000
124,000
120,000
116,000
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
US Employment
148,000
146.58 mil
146,000
144,000
From Peak to Trough -Job Losses of 8.62 mil
142,000
140,000
139.2 mil
138,000
138.59 mil
136,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
US Unemployment Rate
11
10
Peak of 10.1%
9
8
7
6
5
Average 4.5% in 2007
4
3
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
US Unemployment Rate with
Discouraged Workers
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Average Weeks Unemployed by Age Group
35
29.5
30
25.3
25
20
19.9
15
10
5
0
16 to 24
25 to 54
55 and over
US Employment
(2000s Average Growth Rate in Employment)
175,000
12.6 Million Jobs
165,000
155,000
145,000
135,000
115,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
125,000
Actual
No Recession
US Employment
(1990s Average Growth Rate in Employment)
175000
7.8 million jobs
165000
155000
145000
135000
125000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
115000
Actual
No Recession
US and Missouri Median Home Prices
Constant Dollars 2010:Q2
260,000
Peak 2006:Q4
240,000
$240,289
decline of 25%
220,000
200,000
$180,176
2002:Q1
180,000
160,000
Peak 2006:Q4
140,000
$123,754
2001:Q1
$142,857
decline of 13.3%
120,000
100,000
00
01
02
03
04
Missouri
05
06
07
United States
08
09
10
Housing Prices in Missouri Cities
1995 Q1 = 100
150
City, Index Value, CAGR
STL 126
KC 121
JPL 112
SPD 106
140
130
1.5%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
120
110
100
90
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
Springfield
Joplin
03
04
05
06
St. Louis
Kansas City
07
08
09
10
US and Missouri Home Prices
(1980:Q1 = 100 ; Constant $1980)
160
150
140
Area, Index, CAGR
130
US 131 0.9%
MO 110 0.3%
122.6
120
110
100
103.3
90
80
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
US
94
96
98
Missouri
00
02
04
06
08
10
Real Residential Value of Construction
(Millions of 2010 $ SAAR)
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
New Single Family Home Permits
per 10,000 population
60
50
40
30
20
10
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
US SFH/10,000
96
98
00
02
04
Mo SFH/10,000
06
08
10
Missouri SFH Permits/10,000 pop
50
45
40
35
1985-2005 Average
30
25
20
15
10
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Missouri Personal Income
(Constant 2010:Q3 Million $--SAAR)
230,000
220,000
210,000
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Missouri Personal Income
Growth in Missouri Personal Income
(Year over Year)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Missouri Employment
2000-2010
2,920,000
Peak 2006:12
2,913,975
Peak 2000:12
2,884,803
2,880,000
2,840,000
2,800,000
2,760,000
2,720,000
2,710,232
Today
2,680,000
Loss of 204K Jobs
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Missouri Employment
3,000,000
2,800,000
2010 = Jan 1996
2,600,000
2,400,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
1,800,000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
• Peak of
2,913,975
Dec. 2006
• Trough of
2,704,225
Aug.2010
• 2010
Average
2,711,858
Missouri Employment
(Percent Change Year over Year)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
US and Missouri Job Losses
(December 2007 to June 2009)
-25.0
Government
-20.0
Other Services
-15.0
Leisure and Hospitality
-10.0
Health Care/Education
-5.0
Prof./Business Services
0.0
Financial Activities
MO
US
Information
Trans. and Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining and Logging
Total Private
Total Nonfarm
5.0
Monthly Change in Employment
20,000
Missouri
Employment
Peak
15,000
<--Official Recession Dates-->
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
-20,000
I
II
III IV
2006
I
II
III IV
2007
I
II
III IV
2008
I
II
III IV
2009
I
II
III IV
2010
Change in US and Missouri Employment
(Percent relative to Jan 2006 Employment level)
.8
.6
.4
.2
.0
-.2
-.4
-.6
-.8
I
II
III
2007
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
2008
Missouri
III
2009
US
IV
I
II
2010
III
US and Missouri Employment
101
Nov 2007 = 100
100
99
98
97
96
0.8%
95
0.2%
94
93
IV
2007
I
II
III
IV
I
2008
II
III
IV
2009
US
Missouri
I
II
2010
III
IV
US and Missouri Private Employment
101
Nov 2007 = 100
100
99
98
97
96
95
Mo 0.52%
Mo 0.3%
94
93
1.03%
USUS
1.2%
92
IV
2007
I
II
III
IV
I
2008
II
III
IV
2009
US
Missouri
I
II
2010
III
IV
US and Missouri Employment
(June 2009 to Present)
Government
MO
US
Other Serivces
-15.0
Leisure and Hospitality
-10.0
Health Care /Education
-5.0
Prof./Business Services
0.0
Financial Activities
5.0
Information
Trans. and Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining and Logging
Total Private
Total Nonfarm
10.0
Missouri Employment in Recovery Index
(Employment in Month 1 of Recovery = 100)
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
1
2
3
4
5
6
1982
7
8
1992
9
2001
10
11
2009
12
13
14
15
16
Missouri Private Employment
(thds)
16
Missouri
Employment
Peak
12
<--Official Recession Dates-->
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
-20
I
II
III
2006
IV
I
II
III
2007
IV
I
II
III
2008
IV
I
II
III
2009
IV
I
II
2010
III
Change in Construction Employment
(thds)
6
Missouri
Employment
Peak
4
<----Official Recession------>
Dates
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
I
II
III IV
2006
I
II
III IV
2007
I
II
III IV
2008
I
II
III IV
2009
I
II
III IV
2010
Change in Government Employment
(thds)
8
Missouri
Employment
Peak
6
<----Official Recession------>
Dates
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
I
II
III IV
2006
I
II
III IV
2007
I
II
III IV
2008
I
II
III IV
2009
I
II
III IV
2010
Change in Health
and Education Employment
(thds)
5
Missouri
Employment
Peak
4
<----Official Recession------>
Dates
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
I
II
III IV
2006
I
II
III IV
2007
I
II
III IV
2008
I
II
III IV
2009
I
II
III IV
2010
Change in Professional Business
Services Employment
(thds)
6
Missouri
Employment
Peak
4
<----Official Recession------>
Dates
2
0
-2
-4
-6
I
II
III IV
2006
I
II
III IV
2007
I
II
III IV
2008
I
II
III IV
2009
I
II
III IV
2010
Change in Manufacturing Employment
(thds)
3
Missouri
Employment
Peak
2
<--Official Recession Dates-->
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
I
II
III IV
2006
I
II
III IV
2007
I
II
III IV
2008
I
II
III IV
2009
I
II
III IV
2010
Where is Missouri Growing?
(December 2009 to today)
102
Nov 2007 = 100
100
98
96
94
92
90
IV
2007
I
II
III
IV
I
2008
II
III
IV
I
2009
Minor MSA
Rural Mo
Kansas City MSA
St. Louis MSA
II
2010
III
IV
• Kansas City
(-6,082)
• St. Louis
(10,273)
• MSA Minor
(8,541)
• Rural
(-7,874)
Springfield MSA Employment
220,000
Peak 213,895
March '07
210,000
Current
199,820
200,000
190,000
Trough 196,355
Dec '09
180,000
Loss of 17,540 jobs
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Employment Throughout Missouri
Area
St. Louis
Kansas City
Minor MSAs
Rural
Total
Employment
980,405
553,824
497,144
677,842
2,709,215
Percent of Missouri
Employment
36.1%
20.4%
18.4%
25.1%
Missouri Employment Breakdown
(thds)
Industry
Dec 2006
Nov 2010
Change
Relative Size
Nonfarm (CES)
2,788.8
2,653.50
-135.3
---
Private
2,352.7
2,195.00
-157.7
82.7%
Construction
147.6
103.6
-44.0
3.9%
Financial
165.6
156.7
-8.9
5.9%
Government
436.1
458.8
22.7
17.3%
Health
381.2
408.4
27.2
15.4%
Information
63.1
61.8
-1.3
2.3%
Leisure
280.8
277.6
-3.2
10.5%
Manufacturing
304.8
246.5
-58.3
9.3%
5.2
4.1
-1.1
0.2%
Prof Biz Services
338.8
308.6
-30.2
11.6%
Retail
316.2
297.8
-18.4
11.2%
Trans/Utilities
106.5
94.7
-11.8
3.6%
Wholesale
124.2
115.4
-8.8
4.3%
Other Services
120.5
119.5
-1.0
4.5%
Mining
Missouri Unemployment Rate
11
Current
9.9%
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Major City Unemployment Rates
12
STL 10%
SPD 8.7%
KC 11.1%
10
8
6
4
2
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
St. Louis
Springfield
Kansas City
04
06
08
10
Change in Taxable Sales
2009 to 2010
less than -10%
-10% to -5%
-5% to 0%
0% to 5%
5% to 10%
over 15%
Change in Taxable Sales
2007 to 2010
less than -5%
-5% to 0
0 to 5%
more than 5%
2011 Missouri Forecast
Industry
Nonfarm (CES)
Private
Construction
Financial
Government
Health
Information
Leisure
Manufacturing
Mining
Prof Biz Services
Retail
Trans/Utilities
Wholesale
Other Services
Spfd Employment
Mo Unemployment Rate
(SA)
Spfd Unemployment
Rate (SA)
Real Personal Income
10-Nov
2,653.50
2,195.00
103.6
156.7
458.8
408.4
61.8
277.6
246.5
4.1
308.6
297.8
94.7
115.4
119.5
199.8
2011
2,668.50
2,215.00
104
153.7
453.5
412.8
61
283.6
248.5
4.6
314
301.4
97.3
116
121
202.7
9.90%
8.50%
8.70%
219,620
7.90%
222,694
Change
15.0
20.0
0.4
-3.0
-5.3
4.4
-0.8
6.0
2.0
0.5
5.4
3.6
2.6
0.6
1.5
2.9
Percent
0.57%
0.91%
0.39%
-1.91%
-1.16%
1.08%
-1.29%
2.16%
0.81%
12.20%
1.75%
1.21%
2.75%
0.52%
1.26%
1.43%
3,074
1.40%