Transcript What do the surveys reveal about the impact of the global crisis on the South African economy? George Kershoff BER, South Africa Presented at the.

What do the surveys reveal about the
impact of the global crisis on the South
African economy?
George Kershoff
BER, South Africa
Presented at the Fourth joint EC-OECD workshop on business
and consumer opinion surveys, Brussels, 12-13 October 2009
South Africa escaped a banking crisis
Liquidity requirement, range and
amount allotted
Volumes of overnight interbank
lending in South Africa
Transmission of the global crisis to
South Africa
Nominal effective exchange rate of the
rand
Volume of merchandise exports
Tightening of bank lending standards
Unit
Start
Max
Date
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
09
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
Retail banks
Net
%
02Q1
71
02Q3
50
50
75
87
85
44
Investment
banks
Net
%
02Q1
64
02Q1
71
92
100 100
47
-26
Evidence from the surveys on the
direct impact of the global crisis on
the real economy
Business confidence
100
50
0
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Consumer confidence
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Consumer confidence
Unit
Start
Max
Date
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
09
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
Economic
perform
Net
%
08Q2
-38
85Q2
-14
2
-5
4
17
11
Financial
perform
Net
%
08Q2
-22
85Q2
5
13
9
15
17
15
Time to buy
durables
Net
%
08Q2
-42
84Q2
-9
-17
-16
-15
-21
-23
Retail trade
08
Q3
08
Q4
09
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
92Q2 -1
3
-13
-19
-44
-21
92Q3 -75
-80
-88
-94
-96
-55
Unit
Start
Max
Date
Retail sales
Net
%
86Q1
-38
New vehicle
sales
Net
%
86Q1
-85
08
Q2
Manufacturing production
100
0
-100
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Manufacturing
Unit
Start
Max
Date
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
09
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
Domestic
sales
Net
%
74Q2
-48
99Q1 -19
-28
-34
-65
-65
-47
Export sales
Net
%
92Q1
-47
05Q1 -42
-20
-23
-54
-64
-47
Production
Net
%
74Q2
-41
85Q3 -12
-18
-39
-63
-62
-47
Employment
Net
%
70Q1
-59
98Q3 -24
-28
-37
-43
-63
-44
Investment
Net
%
92Q2
-17
99Q2 -12
10
13
-23
-25
-23
Building & construction
Building
activity
Unit
Start
Max
Date
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
09
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
Net
%
01Q2
-60
99Q1 -56
-65
-68
-77
-83
-77
House prices
50
40
% change YoY
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09