Transcript Household projections for Scotland Valerie Hale and Esther Roughsedge July 2012 Summary • Methods • 2010-based household projections • Principal projection • Variant projections • Future work.

Household projections for
Scotland
Valerie Hale and Esther Roughsedge
July 2012
Summary
• Methods
• 2010-based household projections
• Principal projection
• Variant projections
• Future work
Method
Projections are produced by:
• Local authority
• Age (5 year bands)
• Household type (1 adult male, 1 adult female, 2 adults, 1adult 1 child, 1 adult 2+
children, 2+ adults 1+children, 3+ adults)
Inputs
Population
projections
Communal
establishment
estimates
Headship
rates
Calculate private
household
population to 2035
Project headship
rates to 2035
Calculate the
raw household
projection
Constrain LA
figures to
Scottish totals
Household
estimates
Constrain to
household
estimates
Minimum adult
and child
adjustments
Sum LA figures to
give final Scottish
figures
Final
projections
Principal projection
• 23% increase in households between 2010 and 2035
Figure
Projected
number of households
in Scotland by household
• Increases
in 1:small
households
and decreases
in largetype,
households
2010 and 2035
1,400,000
2010
2035
Number of households
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1 adult
2 adults
1 adult with
children
Type of household
2+ adults with
children
3+ adults
Principal projection
• Large
Figure 2: Projected number of households in Scotland by age of head of
2010 and 2035
increases in olderhousehold,
households
600,000
2010
2035
Number of households
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
Age of head of household
• Local authority changes are between -6% and +43% to 2035
2010-based household projections –
variant projections
• 6 variant projections were published
• Migration (High and Low)
• Alternative headship variants
• Economic downturn variant
Migration variants
Figure
Principal,population
low and high migration
variants, 2010-based population
based
on 8:variant
projections
and household projections for Scotland
7,000,000
High migration population
Principal population
6,000,000
Population Projections
5,000,000
Low migration population
4,000,000
High migration household
Principal household
3,000,000
Household Projections
2,000,000
Low migration household
1,000,000
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
0
2010
Households / Population
•
Alternative headship variants
• Survey evidence suggests that the household projections may be
overestimating 1 adult households and under-estimating larger
households.
40%
Percentage of all households
35%
2010
Projections
1 adult with children
2+ adults with
children
SHS (adjusted)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1 adult
2 adults
Household type
3+ adults
Alternative headship variants
Figureslower
13: Principal
and alternative
headship variant
projections
• Assume
changes
in headship
rateshousehold
(half way
between
for Scotland, using variant migration population projections, 2010 - 2035
those of the principal projection and the rate in 2001)
3,000,000
2,500,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
0
2011
500,000
2028
Principal household projection
Alternative headship (high migration)
Alternative headship (main)
Alternative headship (low migration)
2010
Households
2,000,000
Economic downturn
• In the last three years the year on year increase in the household
numbers has been much lower than in previous years (based on
Figure 14: Annual increase in the number of households in Scotland, 2001council tax data)
2011
Annual increase in number of households
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Constrained housing variant
• Assumes that for 2012 to 2014 the year-on-year increases will be
the same
the average
yearly
increases
for 2009,
2010 and 2011
Figure as
15: Principal
and constrained
housing
variant household
projections
for Scotland, 2010 - 2035
(applied at local authority
level).
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
0
Principal projection
Constrained housing projection
2010
Households
2,500,000
Future Work
• Microsimulation-based variant
• Produce a new variant using a Scottish
microsimulation model developed by Ashley
McCormick and Paul Williamson
• Incorporation of 2011 census results
• We will review the methodology used in light of the
2011 census results
– Use more than two census points?
– Use Household Reference Person?
– Suggestions?
Contacts
2010-based household projections:
http://www.groscotland.gov.uk/statistics/theme/households/
projections/2010-based/index.html
[email protected]
or
[email protected]