Transcript Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System Jing Chen, Hua Tian, Gou Deng National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA.

Update of NMC/CMA Global
Ensemble Prediction System
Jing Chen, Hua Tian, Gou Deng
National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA
Contents
• GEPS System Configuration
• GEPS Update
• Tigge relative research and use
T213 GEPS Configuration
T213L31
Obs
SSI+ATOVS
BGM
perturbation
method
IC1+
IC1-
IC2+
Run all
members.
Product
processing
Con.l Run
IC2-
EPS
Upgraded T213 GEPS
System
model
T213L31
Horizontal Resolution
0.5625
Vertical Resolution
31
Analysis system
3D SSI+ATOVS
Perturbation method
BGM
Perturbation region
Global
EPS members
15
forecast
10 days
Typhoon
relocation and vortex
perturbation
T213 GEPS Based on-BGM
System Structure and Flow Chart
Getinicon.cmd
IC 1
IC 2
Modeln..cmd
Modeln
Integration with
Model T213
12 or 24 hrs
Analysis
First Guess 1
First Guess 2
Perturbation
DIFF
=FG1-FG2
MASK
Rescaling
Process
Filtered DIFF
Gauss Filter, Remove waves no.>9
Getrscal..cmd
Getrscal
EP mem1
EP mem2
1~10 days
Global EPS Upgrade
Data assimilation from Optimal Interpolation  3DVAR
+ATOVS in 2008
T213-EPS ACC (NH 500mb Height)
average for 20080801-20080831
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
ACC Score
ACC Score
ACC (NH 500mb Height)
average for 20060601-20060831
CMA old EPS
1
2
3
4
EPS_mean
5
6
valid(day)
Control
7
8
Skill line
9
10
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
CMA upgraded EPS
1
2
3
EPS_mean
4
5
6
valid(day)
7
Control
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC)
Control run forecast skill improve from 5 to 6.5 day
8
Skill line
9
10
New update in 2009 for
Global TC ensemble prediction
Old TC EPS： Perturbed TC environment
Upgrade TC EPS：perturbed TC environment ＋ Vortex.
Old TC EPS
New TC EPS
Difference
The ensemble products update on the NMC’s web
http://www.nmc.gov.cn/publish/nwp/epst213/probability/precipitation/index.htm
Tigge relative research and use
• Relative Research
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Global EPS system upgrade;
Typhoon EPS system development;
Method for bias correction & combination, cluster;
Numerical model error analysis and NWP Probability;
Hydrology prediction drived by TIGGE data;
Method for severe weather potential forecast;
TIGGE-LAM researches
• Data operational use
– Medium-range forecast with TIGGE data;
– CXML typhoon track EPS product;
Global TC track EPS CXML digital products
CXML ( Cyclone extensible Markup Language):
No.0817, HIGOS (2008)
CMA
ECMWF
JMA
KMA
NCEP
UKMO
CMA
ECMWF
NCEP
TIGGE precipitation in watershed
CMA
ECMWF
NCEP
Hydrology forecast based on
downscaling TIGGE precipitation
Period and flood runoff
forecast based on EPS
data
Super EPS flood runoff
probability prediction