Transcript Available products for Seasonal forecasting J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie

Available products for
Seasonal forecasting
J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie
RA VI Web sites (1)
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European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
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http://www.ecmwf.int/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/
http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/data
Met Office (United Kingdom)
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http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal/ .
http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal/nms/
(Password-protected section for NMSs and similar
organisations)
http://www.meto.govt.uk/weather/seasonal/index.html
RA VI Web sites (1)
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World Meteorological Centre Moscow
(WMC)
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http://hmc.hydromet.ru
(Password for access is to be provided on request)
Météo France
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http://www-int.meteo.fr/scem/cbd/dev/
(Seasonal forecasts)
http://www.meteo.fr/special/CLIM/clim_model.html
(Model anomalies)
ftp site (Password-protected section for NMSs, similar
organisations and specific users)
RA VI Web sites (1)
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World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)
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http://http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/EPSHOME/eps-home.htm#Long-range
(EPS/LRF producing centres)
http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/GDPSSupplement5-AppI-4.html
(Definitions of forecast ranges)
http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/LRF-verificationsystems.html
(Verification system for Long-range forecast)
ECMWF Products
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Ocean Analysis
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Temperature anomaly along the equator
(ocean cross-section), Sea level anomaly,
Zonal wind stress anomaly
7-day mean, updated weekly
Tropical belt
Seasonal forecasts: Nino’s indices
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Nino 3, 3.4, 4 SST anomaly plumes
ECMWF Products
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Seasonal forecasts: Forecast maps
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Precipitation , Temperature at 2m , Mean sea
level pressure , Sea surface temperature
Ensemble mean value, Probability of below
/above various thresholds
Global and sub-areas
Lead time from 1 to 3 months
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3-month averages, updated monthly
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Met Office Products
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Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature at 2m, Precipitations
Ensemble mean value, Probability of below
/above various thresholds
Global
Lead time from 1 to 3 months
3-month averages, updated monthly
Forecasts for some specific regions and
seasons (e.g. Sahel rainfall); winter NAO
index
SST for months 2-4, 3-5, 4-6; Nino3, Nino3.4,
Nino4 SST anomaly ensemble plumes to 6
months ahead (planned for 2003).
Météo-France Products
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Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature at 850hPa, Precipitations, Geopotential
Height at 500 hPa,
Ensemble mean value and significance test, Probability
of below /above various thresholds
Global
Lead time 1 month
3-month averages, updated monthly
Model anomalies
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Precipitations,Temperature and geopotential at 850 hPa
and 500 hPa, Sea Level Pressure, Temperature at 2 m,
Wind speed at 10 m, Humidity at 700 hPa,
Monthly, 3 and 12 overlapping monthly averages
Monthly uptdated
Moscou Products
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Seasonal forecasts
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Precipitation, Z500, MSLP, T850, T2m
Ensemble mean value and characteristics of
uncertainty ,
Global
Lead time 1 month
1 and 3-month ensemble mean, updated
monthly
Other usefull Web sites
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cmb/Forecasts/enso
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/index.h
tml
http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/
The ECMWF Web site
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http://www.ecmwf.int/
General public documentation
public forecasts: “essential”
WMO Members forecasts : “additional”
Similar for Seasonal forecasts
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The ECMWF Web site
The UKMO Web site
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http://www.metoffice.com/
Public and password protected area
The UKMO Web
site
The UKMO Web
site
The UKMO Web site
The UKMO
Web site
The UKMO Web site
The UKMO Web site
The UKMO Web site
The UKMO
Web site
The Météo-France Web site
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http://www-int.meteo.fr/scem/cbd/dev/
Internal access at this stage
The Météo-France Web site
The Météo-France Web site
The Météo-France Web site
The Météo-France Web site
Follow-up – Climate and Model
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Model Climate Anomalies and Indices monthly computed for
month, overlapping season and year (subjective comparison)
Web site access : http://www.meteo.fr/special/CLIM/clim_model.html
Model Climate Anomalies and Indices
Model Climate Anomalies and Indices