Rainfall Variability, Food Security and Human Mobility Project Ghana case study report National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop 4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra Edward Salifu.
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Slide 1
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 2
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 3
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 4
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 5
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 6
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 7
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 8
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 9
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 10
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 11
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 12
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 13
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 14
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 15
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 16
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 17
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 18
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 19
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 20
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 21
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 22
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 23
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 24
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 25
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 26
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 27
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 28
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 29
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 30
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 2
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 3
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 4
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 5
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 6
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 7
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 8
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 9
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 10
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 11
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 12
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 13
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 14
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 15
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 16
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 17
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 18
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 19
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 20
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 21
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 22
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 23
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 24
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 25
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 26
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 27
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 28
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 29
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]
Slide 30
Rainfall Variability,
Food Security and Human Mobility Project
Ghana case study report
National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop
4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra
Edward Salifu Mahama &
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
Overview of presentation
1) Rainfalls project overview
2) Ghana case study information
3) Characteristics of survey respondents
4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data
5) Agricultural & livestock production
6) Problems of the agricultural sector
7) Impact diagram
8) Food insecurity & coping
9) Migration
10) Conclusions
11) Policy recommendations
12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes
1. Where the Rain Falls project
• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn
& Amsterdam
• Sponsors:
• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Thailand
• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale),
Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior
research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members
Tamale/Wa
1. Research Objectives & Questions
Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food
security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility
focus of field work
Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall
variability & food insecurity
Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
Rainfall
Variability
Livelihood
Food
Security
Migration
Better understand complex
interrelations and interplays
through fieldwork…
1. Objectives & Questions
Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a
major driver of human migration and displacement in coming
decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).
Develop an agent based model on migration decisions
Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society
organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions
in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and
Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and
regional discussions about human mobility.
Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes
run by CARE International in four countries
2. Ghana Case Study
Nadowli District
• Population: 95,000 (2009)
• Economy:
85% agriculture
14% commerce/service
1% industry
• Guinea Savannah zone
• 1 rainy season (April-October),
1036mm/a (1960-2011)
• 1 agricultural season
Upper West Region poorest region in
Ghana
Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area
October/November 2011
Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural
Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews
2. Nadowli District Map
with research communities
(District boundaries in 2011)
Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies,
Wa, Ghana, 2012.
2. Livelihood in Takpo area
Main characteristics
• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district
• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam
• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper
• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale
Economic activties of households
• agriculture
• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)
• Pito brewing
• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing
• Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.)
• Charcoal processing & sale
• Migration
• Fishing
Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)
3. Background characteristics of
survey respondents
Name of community Population of males
Population of
females
Total population
Mantari
79
73
152
Nanville
510
643
1153
Takpo
1159
1229
2388
Zupiri
78
98
176
Population of selected research communities
Source: Population and Housing Census 2000.
Name of community
Total number of HHs
Number of HHs selected
Mantari
24
9
Nanville
190
52
Takpo
332
88
Zupiri
34
9
Total
580
158
Selected households (HH) and household sizes
Source: Household survey, 2011.
4. Perceptions of rainfall variability
and their effects
“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.”
(Man from Zupiri)
• The climate has become less predictable
• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)
• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells
• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)
Effect on economic
situation of household
%
Lower crop yields
92.4
Increasing food price
37.3
Less livestock production
36.7
Others
1.9
Substitute Market products
1.3
Effects of changing rainfall on economic
situation of the household, multiple answers
Source: Household survey, 2011
Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project
Dry spell probability highest in North-West
Ghana (1961-99)
Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001)
Increase in extreme weather patterns
(Scenario A1B, 2011-30)
Source: Laux 2009
4. Annual rainfall amounts,
Wa Station, 1953-2011
Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.
Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.
4. Comparison of local perceptions and
bio-physical observations
Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007,
Van de Giessen et al., 2010.
5. Agricultural production
Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg).
Source: MoFA 2012
Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the
past years compared to the past
Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09
5. Price development of crops
at Wa market
Price development for millet, Wa market,
2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
Price development for groundnuts, Wa
market, 2005-2009
Source: MoFa price data.
5. Livestock production in Nadowli
District and the research communities
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep
Goat
Pigs
Poultry
2008
4,157
8,217
8,935
9,871
18,015
2009
5,357
9,457
9,943
9,967
22,234
2010
5,987
9,909
10,009
10,087
43,987
Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010
Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).
Livestock production in four research
communities in Nadowli District, 2011
Source: Household survey, October 2011.
6. Problems of the Agricultural
sector
Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:
• Poor storage facilities
• Erratic/unreliable rainfall
• Inadequate credit facilities
• Poor farming technology
• Inadequate access to extension service
• Inadequate irrigation facilities
• Infertile soils
• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres
Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities
Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56
7. Impact diagram (PRA session)
Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme)
Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.
8. Food insecurity & coping
Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”
“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff.
We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the
adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old
household head from Nanville)
Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)
Lean season
Activities / characteristics
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Farming (planting & harvesting)
Fire wood fetching
Harvesting of economic trees
Food shortage
Food abundance
Migration
Less Intense Activity
Intense Activity
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8. Food insecurity
Food insecurity and lack of money during the year
Source: Household survey, 2011.
71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by
migrating to find money.”
8. Coping strategies
STRATEGY
Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products)
28.7%
Reduced food consumption
21.3%
Diversify activities to increase income
14.3%
Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal)
Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops,
fertilizer)
14.3%
Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs)
8.1%
Reduce Expenditure (goods, health)
1.9%
10.9%
Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importance
Source: Household survey 2011
Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget
with their small-scale processing and selling activities
“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober
and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the
food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman
in Takpo).
9. Migration in Takpo area
Indicators
Average age of migrants (first trip)
Education level of migrants (years
of schooling)
Marital status of migrants
Single
Married
Other
Type of migration (first trip)
Seasonal (< 6 months)
Temporal (0.5 - 2 years)
Permanent (> 2years)
Migration status
Current
Returned
Source: HH survey, October 2011
77%
1.6
83%
9%
69%
31%
23
4
40%
53%
7%
39%
25%
36%
Source: Household survey, 2011
40
Migrants (%)
HH with migration experience
Number of migrants per HH
Economic migrants
Educational migrants
Sex of migrants
Male
Female
Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroad
30
20
10
0
Main activities (first migration):
52% Farming
14% Mining
9% Education
Occasional remittances and food support
HHs usage of remittances:
68%
32%
food consumption
consumer goods purchase
health care, education & investment
9. Reasons for migration
Decline in crop production for HH consumption
Shifted seasonal rainfalls
Unemployment
Longer drought periods
Unreliable harvest
Increase in drought frequency
Poor soil quality
Decline in animal production for HH consumption
Less crop production for sale
Increasing food prices in the market
Not satisfied with my livelihood
Less financial resources to buy food/staples
Heavy rainfall events
Less animal production for sale
Storms
Better job opportunities in the city
Floods
Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers) 0
Reasons:
social/personal
50
economic/food security
100
150
natural/environmental
Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors
9. Changing migration patterns?
• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season
• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it
contributes to food security
Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:
• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon
times
most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)
Possible reasons:
• acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy
season
• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low
harvest
What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?
• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly
• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production
More research is needed
10. Conclusions 1
• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change &
changes in rainfall variability
• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock
rearing
• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification
• Most households are below the national poverty line
• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the
next havest
People developed various coping and adaptation strategies
• Coping strategies of HHs
sell of livestock
reduce food consumption
increasing small-scale “commercial” production
Seasonal migration
10. Conclusions 2
Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks
The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration
Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception
The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate
related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households
Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk
management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food
insecurity?
• Perception of migration
normal income strategy (75%) and/or
strategy only in times of crisis (36%)
• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households
• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy
season 2011 as a risk management strategy
11. Policy recommendations –
research participants expectations
• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methods
of farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:
• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops
• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields
• Fertiliser provision
• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year
• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)
• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm
crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses
• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production
• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms
• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs
11. Policy recommendations
(local/district/regional level)
1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to
the specific needs and challenges of local people.
2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing,
drought and flood resilient crops.
3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting,
contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).
4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.
5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop
production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.
6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a
sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.
7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven
to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.
12. District level stakeholder
workshop outcomes
• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their
communities
• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food
insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting
• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate
• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)
found better than tractors
• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area.
• One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District
• Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of
irrigation dams
• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation
• District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity
General conclusion:
• Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated
• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities
Thank you for your attention!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200
Fax: + 49-228-815-0299
e-mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Contacts:
Christina Rademacher-Schulz
e-mail: [email protected]
Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamale
e-mail: [email protected]