Transcript Bogataj

WMO/COST 718 ETWCF Meeting
Geneva, 15-18 November, 2004
CLIMATE CHANGE:
IT IS NOT TOO LATE
IF FARMERS ACT NOW
Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
University of Ljubljana
Slovenia
Weather, Climate and Farmers
OBSERVED
CHANGE
Observed Global Temperature Change 1861-2003
Annual surface temperature trends for periods 1901 to 2000,
1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975, and 1976 to 2000 (°C/decade)
Source: Folland et al. (2001)
More than Global Warming
Changes in Extremes
Summer 2003 in Europe
Regional temperature change 1900 to 2000
Temperature change C
Models are based on physics and not history. Match is because climate
must obey the laws of physics. The warming since 1950 is not natural…
North
America
1.0
Asia
Europe
0.5
0
-0.5
190
0
2000
1900
model natural factors
2000
1900
observations
model natural + human factors
Computer models versus observations: finding a human signal
2000
PREDICTIONS
Change (°C) from 1961-90 average
Global Temperature 1000 – 2100 AD (IPCC)
6.0
Projections
4.0
Observations
(instrumental)
2.0
Observations (proxy data)
0.0
1000
1500
2000
The SRES driving forces and storylines
E conom ic
A1
A2
G lobal
R egional
B1
B2
E nvironm ental
n
Ag
om
y
t io
lo
us
tu
re
e)
y
no
d-
ul
g
ch
an
r ic
er
Te
n
Driv
ing
E
gy
on
(L
Ec
Po
la
pu
ces
r
o
F
Nakicenovic et al. (2000)
IPCC Data Distribution Centre
http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk
Provides climate and related data,
impact and adaptation assessment
with emphasis on the needs of developing countries
- climate model projections and observed climate data
- socio-economic baseline and scenario data
- other environmental information (atm. composition, sea level)
- supporting documentation and guidance material
Hard copies available
http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/asres/scatter_plots/scatterplots_home.html
South Europe and N Africa (Region 14): 2010-2039
General Circulation Model
Large area model
Regional climate model
Climate
change
scenario
spatial
variability
Crop
model
model
uncertainties
output
processing
crop
forecast
for future
http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/items/570.php
http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/items/570.php
Changes in rainfall with doubled CO2 (CSIRO model)
160
140
40°N
40°S
120
100
Change in
frequency
(%)
80
60
40
20
0
–20
0.2-0.4
0.4-0.8
0.8-1.6
1.6-3.2
3.2-6.4 6.4-12.8 12.8-25.6 >25.6
Daily rainfall class (mm day –1)
UNCERTAINTY
Cascade of uncertainty
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
High confidence
CO2 concentration
Global-mean sea level
Global-mean temperature
Regional temperatures
Regional temperature extremes
Regional precipitation
Cloud cover
Low confidence
Climatic variability / extremes
Cascade of Uncertainty in
Assessment of Impacts
em ission
scen arios

carbon cycle
respon se

global
clim ate
sen sitivity

region al
clim ate 
ch an ge
scen arios
rang e of
p ossib le
im p acts
IMPACTS
The climate change affects on agriculture
• Productivity (quantity and quality)
• Agricultural practices (changes of water use,
agricultural inputs -herbicides, insecticides, fertilizers)
• Environmental level (frequency and intensity of soil
drainage -nitrogen leaching, soil erosion, reduction of
crop diversity)
• Rural space (loss of cultivated lands, land speculation,
land renunciation, hydraulic amenities)
Several changing parameters impact agriculture
• a direct effect is the composition of the earth
atmosphere :CO2 and ozone (CH4, NO2 and CFC to
have no impact on physiological processus).
• some indirect effects are climate parameters
resulting from climate change : temperature,
insolation, rainfall, humidity
• other indirect effects are the side effects due to the
climatic changes : increase of the sea level, changes
in ocean currents, tornadoes..
Additional People at Risk of Hunger
under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios,
(Parry, et al. in Global Environmental Change, 2004)
200
180
Additional Millions of
People
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2020
A2 - Regional Enterprise
2050
2080
B2 - Local Stewardship
Key impacts on wheat yields for different regions
% Yield
N. England
+
0
-
S. Europe
0.5
1.0
Deg C
N. India
Local food production ?
Regional food security ?
Global food security ?
Why farmers in developing countries are more
vulnerable to climate change
1) Impacts are worse
Closer to margin
of tolerance
Coastal
vulnerability
Economic
structure
Poorer nutrition and
health infrastructure
2) Lower capacity to adapt
Availability of
technology
Institutional
capacity
Know-how
and education
Financial
capacity
Climate Sensitivity Functions of the US and India
Mendelsohn and Dinar (2000)
Impact on Farm Value/Net Income
(billions of US $)
0
US Response Function
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
India Response
Function
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Temperature Change, oC
4.0
5.0
MITIGATION
1. no uncertainty on the need to stabilize GHG
concentration in atmosphere
2. need to initiate mitigation urgently
Agriculture has many unique opportunities
to manage greenhouse gases
Reduce
Greenhouse gas
emissions
Remove
Replace
Atmospheric C to store
in soils and
perennial crops
Innovate to replace fossil
fuels with bio-based
energy, chemicals and
materials
Opportunities for mitigation
in agriculture
• Carbon sequestration (possibly increasing N2O)
– Land management (tillage, irrigation management,
fertilizer management, cover crops, eliminating fallow)
– Land use change to grassland, forest
• Emission reduction: CO2, N2O, methane
– Energy emissions (direct, induced energy use)
– Livestock: enteric fermentation, manure
management
– Bio-energy products, renewables (reduces
energy CO2 emissions)
GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture
C h a n g e in S o il C a rb o n (S in k s)
Sink Enhancing
Management Practices
• Increase no-till
• Decrease summerfallow
• Increase hay in crop rotation
• Improve grazing management
• Increase permanent cover
O rg a n ic C
• Increase shelterbelts
GHG Source-Reducing
Management Practices
O ld m a n a g e m e n t N e w m a n a g e m e n t
T im e
• Improve nutrient management
• Improve feeding management
• Improve manure management
REDUCE, REMOVE, REPLACE + RESPOND
Reduce
Greenhouse gas
emissions
Remove
Agricultural
GHG
Management
Atmospheric C to store in
soils and perennial crops
Respond
The climate is going
to change requiring
adaptation
Replace
Innovate to replace fossil
fuels with bio-based
energy, chemicals and
materials
ADAPTATION
‘adjustments in ecological, social
or economic systems in response
to actual or expected climate
stimuli and their impacts …
...to moderate damages or to
benefit from opportunities
associated with climate change’
Concept of adaptation in agriculture
Adaptation refers to responses by
•individuals,
•groups and
•governments
to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects
• to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential,
•or to realize opportunities
associated with climate change (Dolan et al., 2001).
Responses should be beneficial regardless
of how or whether climate changes
Adaptation Options
• Possible at various levels - farmer, economic agent, macro
• Potential and costs of adaptation - possibly through historic
analysis of technology penetration
• Reilly and Schimmelpfenng (1999) show the relative speed of
adoption of various measures:
Adaptation Measure
Variety Adoption
Dams and Irrigation
Variety Development
Tillage Systems
Opening New Lands
Irrigation Equipment
Fertilizer Adoption
Adjustment Time (years)
3-14
50-100
8-15
10-12
3-10
20-25
10
Relative Inertia in Adaptation
A d a p ta tio n
N o change
C h a n g e m ix o f c ro p s a lre a d y g ro w n
C h a n g e c ro p s g ro w n
C h a n g e m a c h in e ry o w n e d
C h a n g e la b o u r m ix
C h a n g e c ro p s to ra g e c a p a city
C h a n g e a n im a l h o u s in g c a p a city
A d d irrig a tio n c a p a c ity
C h a n g e e n te rp ris e
Cost
*
**
**
**
***
***
****
*****
Climate adaptation
should be iterative
Adaptation options (+technique needs)







Development and adoption of new technologies
Promotion of agriculture extension services
Improving water management
Improving farm management
Diversification of income earning and
employment opportunities
Institutional planning and implementation
Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive
capacity including investment and
accumulation of capital.
Development and adoption of new technologies
• Mechanical innovations
- irrigation
- conservation tillage
- integrated drainage systems
• Crop breeding (“climate” resistant varieties)
- improved resistance to changing diseases and insects
- heat and drought resistant crop varieties
- use of traditional varieties bred for storm and drought resistance
- investment in seed banks
• Biotechnology
Biotechnology:
Splicing in a gene to raise the max T of photosynthesis
(tobacco with gene from Arabidosis thaliana)
Genetically
modified
Promotion of agriculture extension services
key role in promoting agriculture productivity in
developing countries
Improving water management
• better water distribution strategies
• changing crop and irrigation schedules to use rainfall
more effectively
• improving irrigation technologies
• water recycling and the conjunctive use of groundwater
• water price
Improving farm management
• changing farm production practices
• diversification of crop and livestock varieties
• replacement of plant types, cultivars and animal breeds
with climate resistant new varieties
• altering the intensity of fertilizer, pesticide application
• modernization and improving farm level managerial
capacity: altering capital and labor inputs to reduce risks
Diversification of income earning and employment
opportunities
• alternative livelihood options need to be encouraged
• income diversification
• off farm activities (trading home produced goods,
providing services)
Institutional planning and implementation
• Institutional reforms (to achive decisionmaking structures that support long term
planning and enhance adaptations to both short
and long term climate impacts)
• The governments need to reverse declining
investments in agricultural research and
extension
• Improved training and general education of
populations dependent on agriculture
Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive
capacity, including investment and
accumulation of capital
• The adjustment of capital (and labor) inputs can
help farmers to make the necessary adaptations
• Removal of subsidies, which can, by limiting changes
in prices, mask the climate change signal in the
marketplace
• Food programs and other social security
programs
to provide insurance against supply changes
What do we know about the connections between
mitigation, adaptation and impacts ?
All
mitigation
Mix of
mitigate/
adapt/
impact
All adaptation
No action
less
Cost of
adaptation
more
(Holdridge diagram)
Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change
CONCLUSIONS
Agrometeorologist should help farmers make transition
from “passive acceptance” of climate change by
equipping them to make an “active response”
Both agrometeorologists and farmers should
realize as soon as possible that
• The past may not longer be a good guide
for the future.
• Adaptation cannot be a substitute
mitigation