Transcript 1. dia

Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
University Of Miskolc
Institute of World and Regional Economics
02 10 2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
University of Miskolc
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE IN THE
VISEGRAD FOUR COUNTRIES DURING THE TRANSITION
PERIOD
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Dániel KUTTOR
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
• Theoretical approach
• Limitation of the target area
• Analysis of the regional difference (based on GDP
data)
• Measurement of disparities on NUTS 2 level
• Visualisation of inequalities
• Conclusion
University of Miskolc
• Definition of research topic and motivation
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Content
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
The reasons, motivations for investigation:
 personal >>> partners, GIS;
 EU expansion >>> CRP;
 growing competition on the global
market >>> CIP;
 EUROSTAT >>> data.
University of Miskolc
Measurement and visualization of
territorial disparities (PhD)
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Definition of research topic and motivation
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
University of Miskolc
Institute of World & Regional Economics
V4 countries in Europe
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
Convergence or divergence to Western Europe
Source: Angus Maddison
University of Miskolc
1900
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
GDP per capita (1990 G-K dollars)
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Ratio
2893
1438
49,71%
4579
2111
46,10%
6896
3070
44,52%
10195
4315
42,32%
13197
5786
43,84%
15966
5450
34,14%
16860
4998
29,64%
19002
5804
30,54%
Institute of World & Regional Economics
V4 countries’ performance in 20th Century
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
Convergence or divergence to Western Europe
40
Czech Republic
35
Hungary
30
Poland
25
Slovakia
20
15
95 9 96 9 97 9 98 9 99 0 00 0 01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 05
9
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
Source: EUROStat
What the tendencies on regional level?
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45
Institute of World & Regional Economics
V4 countries’ performance in last decade
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
Contradictory approaches
• the growth is a spatially cumulative process,
which results increasing inequalities (Myrdal,
Krugman);
• the regional differences disappear with the growth
(Solow, Rostow);
• Spatial inequalities depend on the level of
development (Williamson);
• „trade off” phenomenon.
? in V4
University of Miskolc
the different theories of development and growth
have traditions;
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Theoretical approach or background
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
Generally 35 regions (CZ:8; HU:7, PL: 16,
SK: 4)
University of Miskolc
Source: MapInfo
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Regions in V4
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
Comparison on national level, based on GDP per
capita (PPP)
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1995
1,5
2005
1,0
0,5
0,0
Cz
Source: EUROStat
Hu
Pl
Sk
University of Miskolc
Max/Min
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Measurement of disparities on NUTS 2 level
Rank 1995
#
Rank 2005
GDP per capita, 2005, PPS
Dániel
Kuttor:
35900,6
cz01 Praha
1 cz01 Praha
33124,1
sk01
Bratislavský
kraj
2
sk01
Bratislavský
kraj
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
23489,0
hu10 Közép-Magyarország
3 hu10 Közép-Magyarország
02.10.2008
Herl’any,
Slovakia
18184,4
cz03 Jihozápad
4 pl12 Mazowieckie
of disparities
GDP per capita
(on PPS)
Source: EUROStat
cz02 Strední Cechy
cz03 Jihozápad
cz06 Jihovýchod
cz08 Moravskoslezsko
cz05 Severovýchod
hu22 Nyugat-Dunántúl
cz04 Severozápad
hu21 Közép-Dunántúl
cz07 Strední Morava
sk02 Západné Slovensko
pl22 Slaskie
pl41 Wielkopolskie
pl51 Dolnoslaskie
pl63 Pomorskie
pl42 Zachodniopomorskie
pl11 Lódzkie
sk03 Stredné Slovensko
pl43 Lubuskie
pl61 Kujawsko-Pomorskie
hu23 Dél-Dunántúl
pl21 Malopolskie
hu33 Dél-Alföld
sk04 Východné Slovensko
pl52 Opolskie
hu31 Észak-Magyarország
hu32 Észak-Alföld
pl62 Warminsko-Mazurskie
pl33 Swietokrzyskie
pl34 Podlaskie
pl32 Podkarpackie
pl31 Lubelskie
15792,4
15671,5
15252,2
14633,2
14539,0
14274,9
13658,2
13528,7
13393,1
12779,2
12386,0
12277,7
11862,2
11280,9
10660,1
10545,0
10455,0
10357,1
10012,9
9982,9
9798,5
9756,8
9662,9
9514,2
9483,6
9153,4
8781,9
8586,2
8500,5
7926,6
7838,9
University of Miskolc
on NUTS 2 level
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Measurement
cz04 Severozápad
cz06 Jihovýchod
cz05 Severovýchod
cz07 Strední Morava
cz08 Moravskoslezsko
cz02 Strední Cechy
pl12 Mazowieckie
hu22 Nyugat-Dunántúl
pl22 Slaskie
hu21 Közép-Dunántúl
sk02 Západné Slovensko
pl51 Dolnoslaskie
pl42 Zachodniopomorskie
pl63 Pomorskie
hu33 Dél-Alföld
pl61 Kujawsko-Pomorskie
hu23 Dél-Dunántúl
pl41 Wielkopolskie
pl43 Lubuskie
pl52 Opolskie
pl11 Lódzkie
sk03 Stredné Slovensko
hu31 Észak-Magyarország
pl21 Malopolskie
hu32 Észak-Alföld
sk04 Východné Slovensko
pl62 Warminsko-Mazurskie
pl33 Swietokrzyskie
pl31 Lubelskie
pl34 Podlaskie
pl32 Podkarpackie
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
Comparison based on GDP per capita in % of
the EU average
1995a00
N
Mean
Std. Error of Mean
Median
Mode
Std. Deviation
Variance
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Valid
Missing
35
0
51,549
3,3938
43,700
39,1(a)
20,0779
403,121
92,8
32,8
125,6
1804,2
Source: EUROStat
University of Miskolc
SPSS analysis of the regions
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Measurement of disparities on NUTS 2 level
1996a00
1997a00
1998a00
1999a00
2000a00
2001a00
2002a00
2003a00
2004a00
2005a00
35
0
51,54857
3,393779
43,7
39,1
20,07787
403,1208
92,8
32,8
125,6
1804,2
35
0
52,76
3,495089
44,9
41,5
20,67723
427,5478
94,6
33,9
128,5
1846,6
35
0
53,44286
3,492579
47
35,6
20,66237
426,9337
94,9
35,3
130,2
1870,5
35
0
53,64
3,522826
47,5
36,7
20,84132
434,3607
98
35,6
133,6
1877,4
35
0
53,54571
3,56625
48,6
42,8
21,09822
445,1349
101,6
34,6
136,2
1874,1
35
0
53,40571
3,609895
48,1
36,4
21,35643
456,097
103,3
33,7
137
1869,2
35
0
54,16571
3,921878
47,4
36,2
23,20214
538,3394
112
33,6
145,6
1895,8
35
0
55,20286
4,084462
48,3
64,2
24,164
583,8991
114
33,9
147,9
1932,1
35
0
56,68857
4,246879
48,2
34,6
25,12487
631,2593
119,7
34,6
154,3
1984,1
35
0
58,00286
4,265203
49,5
45,3
25,23328
636,7185
119,7
35,1
154,8
2030,1
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
Comparison based on GDP per capita in % of
the EU average
Box plot figure
Source: EUROStat
University of Miskolc
SPSS analysis
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Measurement of disparities on NUTS 2 level
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
Comparison based on GDP per capita in % of
the EU average
Significant polarization!
Source: GEODA & EUROStat
University of Miskolc
GEODA analysis
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Measurement of disparities on NUTS 2 level
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
Regions by change
University of Miskolc
of GDP (1995-2005)
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Measurement of disparities on NUTS 2 level
Legend:
200% 175 - 200 %
150 - 175 %
Source: MapInfo & EUROStat
- 150 %
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
The ”trade off” phenomenon (1996-2005):
6
1,12
5
1,1
1,08
4
Annual percentage
change in GDP
1,06
3
1,04
2
1,02
Source: EUROStat
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0,98
1998
0
1997
1
1996
1
Annual percentage
change in Std.
Deviation
University of Miskolc
Two cycles identifiable
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Measurement of disparities on NUTS 2 level
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
The geographical aspect,
i.e. west-east incline (1995/2005)
40000,0
35000,0
30000,0
25000,0
y = -697,49x + 20334
20000,0
15000,0
10000,0
5000,0
0,0
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2005
20,000
22,000
24,000
40000,0
35000,0
30000,0
y = -1070,2x + 32860
25000,0
20000,0
15000,0
10000,0
5000,0
0,0
12,000
14,000
Source: EUROStat
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
University of Miskolc
1995
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Measurement of disparities on NUTS 2 level
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
• the V4 countries could converge to Western
European (EU) average measured on national level;
• the polarization in every country means that the
capital region has significantly higher growth
potential and a faster convergence;
• in contrast with the previous there are regions
which although increased their GDP, but the GDP per
capita values did not get closer the EU average;
• in many cases the national convergences were due
to just the growing capital regions (for instance
the Czech Republic in the late 90es);
University of Miskolc
• at the same time the territorial disparities on
regional level increased dramatically;
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Conclusions (1)
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
• Slovakia provide a good example, as the rapid
economic growth has positive effect on the regions
growth potentials;
• the „trade off” phenomenon can be observed in CEE
countries.
University of Miskolc
• the under-developed regions react more sensitive
to the national stagnation or slow down (for
instance: Hungary in the recent years);
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Conclusions (2)
Dániel Kuttor:
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE
02.10.2008
Herl’any, Slovakia
[email protected]
www.uni-miskolc.hu/~euint
University of Miskolc
Dakujem!
Institute of World & Regional Economics
Thank for Your attention!