Transcript Document

Texas Demography: Change,
Projections, and English Learners
Lloyd Potter
Texas Education Agency
April 8, 2010
Sources of Growth
Fastest Growing States, 2000-2008
2000
Population*
State
Texas
*
2008
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2008
Percent
Change
2000-2008
20,851,820
24,326,974
3,465,154
16.7
California
33,871,648
36,756,666
2,885,018
8.5
Florida
15,982,378
18,328,840
2,346,462
14.7
Georgia
8,186,453
9,685,744
1,499,291
18.3
Arizona
5,130,632
6,500,180
1,369,548
26.7
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,222,414
1,173,101
14.6
Virginia
7,078,515
7,769,089
690,574
9.8
Washington
5,894,121
6,549,224
655,103
11.1
Nevada
1,998,257
2,600,167
601,910
30.1
Colorado
4,301,261
4,939,456
638,195
14.8
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates
for July 1 for 2008.
Source:
Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center,
University of Texas at San Antonio.
Total Population and Components of Population
Change in Texas, 1950-2008
Percent Change
Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
1950
7,711,194
--
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
1,754,652
113,831
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1,402,683
214,370
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
1,260,794
1,771,667
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
1,815,670
941,649
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
1,919,281
1,946,029
22.8
49.65
50.35
2008
24,326,974
3,475,154
1,884,947
1,563,694
16.7
54.20
45.00
*
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
--
--
Percent
Change
--
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
--
--
All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2008 is for July 1 as estimated by
the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Source:
Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center,
University of Texas at San Antonio.
Natural Increase in Texas
(Births minus Deaths)
• Birth Rate: 16.8 per 1,000 vs. 14.0 for US (2nd highest)
• Death Rate: 6.8 per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5th lowest)
• Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd
highest)
• Texas is young:
– Median Age:
33.2 vs. 36.8 for US (2nd lowest)
• Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman)
– 2.34 vs. 2.05 for US (4th highest)
Source:
NCHS Vital Statistics Data, 2005 http://wonder.cdc.gov/
Population Change by Components of Change
in the State, 1990-2000 and 2000-2008
State of Texas
1990-2000
Numerical Change
3,865,485
Natural Increase
1,922,044
Domestic Migration
1,166,570
International Migration
776,871
2000-2008
Numerical Change
Natural Increase
3,475,154
1,884,947
Domestic Migration
711,785
International Migration
851,909
Annual Net Migration to Texas,
2000 to 2008
250,000
International
State-to-State
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000 to
2001
Source:
2001 to
2002
2002 to
2003
2003 to
2004
U.S. Bureau of the Census 2008 Estimates
2004 to
2005
2005 to
2006
2006 to
2007
2007 to
2008
Millions
Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
55
No Migration
50
1/2 1990-2000
1990-2000
45
2000-2004
2000-2007
40
35
30
25
20
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
Source:
Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections
2025
2030
2035
2040
Changes in Age Structure
Age-Sex Structure of Texas, 2008 and
Projected 2040 (Scenario 2000-2007)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
Age Group
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
05-09
00-04
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Texas 2040
1.0
0.0
1.0
Percent of Population
Texas 2008-Male
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Texas 2008-Female
Sources: Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates; Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections
Texas Population by Age, 2000 & 2008
450,000
2000
400,000
2008
Population
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Age
Sources: Census Bureau 2000 Population Counts; Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates
Texas Children by Age, 2000 and 2008
420,000
2000
2008
Population
400,000
380,000
360,000
340,000
320,000
300,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Age
Sources: Census Bureau 2000 Population Counts; Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates
Changes in Ethnic Composition
Ethnicity & Immigrant StatusState of Texas, 2007
100%
90%
5
12
80%
70%
60%
48
40%
20%
10%
Black
Anglo
50%
30%
Other
9
3
Hispanic Immigrant
Non-Citizen
Hispanic Immigrant
Citizen
US Born Hispanic
24
0%
Texas
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2007 American Community Survey Microdata File
% of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas,
1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040
90.0
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980-1990
Source:
1990-2000
2000-2007
2000-2040
U.S. Census Counts, and Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Scenario
Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable
to Each Race/Ethnicity Group for 2000-2040*
Black
5.6%
Hispanic
77.6%
Anglo
4.2%
Other
12.6%
*Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2040.
Projected Ethnic Change in the
State of Texas, 2000-2040
70%
60%
50%
40%
Anglo
Black
Latino
Other
30%
20%
10%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0%
Source:
Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 0.5 Migration Scenario
Changes in Geographic
Distribution
Projected population by county, Texas, 2040
2040 Population
P_40
36 - 1000
1001 - 10000
10001 - 50000
50001 - 100000
100001 - 500000
500001 - 1000000
1000001 - 8000000
Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration scenario 2 (2000-2007).
English Learners
Educational Attainment in 2000
in Texas for Persons 25+ Years
of Age By Race/Ethnicity
Percent
100%
90%
80%
70%
College or More
Some College
High School
< High School
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Asian
Anglo
Black Hispanic
Percent of the population 5 and over who
speak English less than well by state, 2008
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Source: American Community Survey, 2008
Percent of persons aged 5 and older, who do not speak
English well, that speak Spanish at home by state, 2008
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Source: American Community Survey, 2008
Percent of Texas children 5-17 who speak a language other
than English at home, by county, 2006-2008
Source: American Community Survey, 3 year file 2006-2008
Percent of Texas children 5-17 who speak a English less
than well, by county, 2006-2008
Source: American Community Survey, 3 year file 2006-2008
Major Points
• Continued growth of Texas population
• Growth driven by both natural increase and inmigration (internal and international)
• Aging of the population with growing base
• Continued growth of Hispanic population relative
to other ethnic/racial groups
• Increased concentration of population in major
urbanized areas
• Large numbers of English learning students in
major urban areas and in border urban areas
Texas State Data Center
Lloyd B. Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H
University of Texas at San Antonio
210-458-6530
[email protected]