Transcript Slide 1

Temporal Continuity in Return
Migration in Australia 1976-2001
A paper presented at the 4th International Conference on
Population Geographies,
10-13 July 2007, Hong Kong
Angélique Parr, Martin Bell & Dominic Brown
Outline
• Defining return migration
• Previous research
• Research questions
• Intensity of return migration in Australia
• Next steps
Conceptual Issues
“Return to an original place of residence
following an earlier permanent or semipermanent migration”
• Three complications:
– Time scale over which moves are measured
– Spatial resolution
– Return to where – area or dwelling?
Previous Work
• Most migration research cross-sectional (single time period)
• Early work on returns from 1950s (Goldstein 1954,1964; Eldridge
1965)
• North American research on lifetime return (Da Vanzo 1983, Lee
1974, Long 1988)
• Work in Australia & Canada on return over fixed intervals (Bell 1995,
1996; Bell & Hugo 2000; Newbold 1997; Newbold and Bell 2001)
• Research strongly driven by nature of the available data
• Major themes in return migration:
– How much movement (intensity)
– Spatial patterns
– Who moves (selectivity)
– Reasons for return (planned vs failed)
Approaches to Measuring Return
Movement
• Life time measures – (Census based; US,
Canada eg Lee 1974,Long 1988)
– Place (province) of birth,
– Place of residence at t - 5
– Place of residence at t
• Fixed interval measures - (Census based;
Canada, Australia eg Newbold & Bell
(2000))
– Place of residence at t - 5
– Place of residence at t - 1
– Place of residence at t
What do we know?
• 20 – 30% of interstate moves in US are returns to state
of birth. Similar figures pertain for inter-provincial
migration in Canada
• In Australia 11% of 1-year (eg 2000-2001) interstate
migrants had moved interstate in the preceding 4 years
(eg 1996-2000)
• Areas with long term net out-migration have significant
return flows
• Return appears to be correlated with distance
• Return migration selective among an already selective
group wrt:
– Age - young adults and retirees
– Less educated, unemployed and low income groups
– Young males more likely to return to family home
Research Questions
• Has the intensity of return migration changed
over time?
• How is return migration intensity affected by
spatial scale?
– Geographic level
– Return to same dwelling cf return to same area
– Distance moved
• Does the age profile vary with type of return?
• Has the age profile of return migration changed
over time?
Datasets
• Data from 4 censuses:
– 1981, 1991, 1996, 2001
– Data from 4 censuses:
– Data from 4 censuses:
• Compare 4 variables:
–
–
–
–
–
Place of usual residence at Census
Place of usual residence one year previously
Place of residence 5 years previously
Five year internal migration indicator
Include age at census to create age profiles
Australia’s City Regions
Interstate returns, Australia, 1981-2001
197619801981
198619901991
199119951996
199620002001
Return to same dwelling
Return to diff dwelling, same state
Total returns
25,981
64,930
90,911
26,421
46,500
72,921
15,421
48,728
64,149
16,582
45,452
62,034
Return to same dwelling
Return to diff dwelling, same state
Total returns
4.5
11.3
15.8
4.0
7.0
11.0
2.4
7.4
9.8
2.5
6.9
9.5
Source: 1981, 1991, 1996 & 2001 Censuses
Inter-regional returns, Australia, 1981-2001
1976-1980-1981
1996-2000-2001
Number 1976of moves 1980
moves
Return to same dwelling
39,120
13.5
Return to diff dwelling, same ACR
31.6
91,958
Number 1996of moves 2000
moves
48,624
16.3
34.7
103,693
Total returns
Moved only during t-5 to t-1
All moves t-5 to t-1
Source: 1981 & 2001 censuses
131,078
45.1
152,317
51.0
1,508,268
1,798,905
519.0
100.0
1,717,090
2,015,906
574.6
100.0
Interstate return migration probabilities by
type of return by age, 1996-2000-2001
return migration probability (per 100) as unity
0.12
return, same dwelling
return, diff dwelling
returns
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
age group at census (years)
Age profile of interstate returns, 19861990-1991 & 1996-2000-2001
20.00
returns 1976-1980-1981
18.00
returns 1996-2000-2001
migration probability (per cent)
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
age group at census (years)
85+
Age profile of interstate returns to same
dwelling, 1986-1990-1991 & 1996-2000-2001
6.00
return, same dwelling 1976-1980-1981
migration probability (per cent)
5.00
return, same dwelling 1996-2000-2001
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
age group at census (years)
85+
Age profile of interstate returns to another
dwelling, 1986-1990-1991 & 1996-2000-2001
16.00
return, diff dwelling 1976-1980-1981
14.00
migration probability (per cent)
return, diff dwelling 1996-2000-2001
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
age group at census (years)
Conclusions and Next Steps
Key findings:
• Intensity of return has changed over time
• Temporal pattern of propensity for return
depends on level of geography
– Interstate return has declined
– Inter-regional return has increased
• Planned returns are becoming more important
• High selection at young adult and older ages –
older more likely to return to previous dwelling –
planned moves
Conclusions and Next Steps
Next Steps:
• Intensities for sub-state areas, by functional
region
• Explore affect of distance on propensity to return
• Determine other key characteristics of return
migrants – planned versus failed hypotheses
• Explore some of the underlying reasons for
different types of return movement