Transcript Slide 1

SS474: TERRORISM & COUNTERTERRORISM
Lesson 3: Understanding Contemporary Terrorism
Admin:
1) Assignment #1 due 8 Sept (next week)
2) Wednesday, 30 August: Guest Lecture
–BG(r) Russell Howard (E hour, Thayer 348)
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
History Review
- What patterns and trends of historical terrorism inform
our understanding of future threats?
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C2
Strategic goals, objectives
Weapons, tactics
Targeting
Fundraising/Friendraising
Similar outcomes re: group existence, changes in political
environment
– What else?
• Future projections?
– Who will likely turn to terrorism, and why?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
History Review
- Why do people resort to violence in pursuit of political or
ideological ends?
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Political contexts
Social contexts
Other options to achieve goals?
Implications for government policy?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
History Review
- What motivates terrorists?
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Vision - “shape the future”
Power to achieve vision
Belief in higher cause
What else?
- What role do economics, psychology, sociology or other
grievances play in motivating terrorist groups?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
History Review
- What can we learn from historical examples of state
response to terrorist organizations?
- What works?
- What doesn’t?
- Why?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Discussion Questions
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What is your understanding of the new model of terrorism?
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Compare and contrast the old and new terrorism for indicators relating to
capabilities and future trends. Why did this shift occur?
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What are the implications of the shift from old to new models of
terrorism?
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What is Al Qaeda? How and why did Al Qaeda evolve as it did?
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How did Al Qaeda ascend to power? What are Al Qaeda's significant
achievements?
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How should we think of Al Qaeda today?
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How do transnational terrorist organizations develop?
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What are the implications of this evolution for counterterrorists?
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Terrorist Network Analysis
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Contemporary Terrorism
• Website competitions
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Elements of the New Terrorism
BG Howard’s model (updated) - “8 Ways Terrorism Has Changed”
1. America is at risk
2. Terrorists are more violent – different political aims
3. Terrorists have global reach and are transnational non-state actors
– implications for “homeland security”
4. Terrorists are better financed – zakat, charity orgs., wealthy donors
5. Terrorists are better trained in tradecraft, AW, IW
6. Terrorist cells are more difficult to penetrate (esp. AQ)
7. Terrorists have access to more lethal weapons (Soviets, bio/nukes)
8. Success and/or failure are difficult to measure – no clear outcome
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Elements of the New Terrorism
• Global in scope and strategic objectives
• Generational in scope; epic struggle, David vs. Goliath
- Bin Laden as Robin Hood
• “The number of the brothers is large . . . I do not know everyone who
is with us in this base or this organization.”
– Bin Laden as Pied Piper., with a constant call to jihad as the duty
of every good Muslim
• Educated members as martyrs in AQ; longer planning cycles (9/11
hijackers arriving in U.S. as early as 1994)
• Evolution into a political social movement, a global insurgency
against Western-oriented globalization
• Afghanistan and Iraq offering new locations for Jihad, indoctrination,
tactical training, network formation
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Elements of the New Terrorism
• Increasing number and lethality of attacks
• Attacks are carried out not by AQ or some other centralized group,
but by affiliates and wanna-bes
• Use of children and female suicide bombers by terrorist
organizations
• Info Ops – role of technology
– From DVDs and web videos to Al Jazeera
– Availability of info on government security, CT efforts
• EW – another role of technology
• Taking instruments from our daily life—the backpack, the car, the
shoe, the cell phone—and turning them into weapons. Goal –
damage the trust necessary for a successful open society
• Shifting from small groups to motivated and resourceful individuals
(Madrid, London)
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
A “Protean Enemy”
Al Qaeda is an increasingly decentralized organization,
constantly evolving, and employs a "virtual network"
concept learned from American right-wing extremists,
which makes it harder to detect and destroy.
Willingness to adapt its mission enables it to forge broad
alliances with other terrorist organizations and attract new
recruits (including women).
Ability to secure coordination with other like-minded groups
(like Hezbollah) and its links with organized crime (a
crime boss in India gave $100,000 to Mohammad Atta,
the 9/11 hijack leader) underscore the advanced stages
of organization (professionals sharing ideas, crosstraining, resources, joint planning, etc.) that al Qaeda has
achieved.
Stern, 2003
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Netwar: A Modern Form of Asymmetric Warfare
 Netwar: Information-related conflict at a grand level
between nations or societies.
 It means trying to disrupt or damage what a target
population knows or thinks it knows about itself and the
world around it.
 A netwar may focus on public or elite opinion, or both.
 It may involve diplomacy, propaganda and psychological
campaigns, political and cultural subversion, deception of
or interference with local media, infiltration of computer
networks and databases, and efforts to promote dissident
or opposition movements across computer networks.
(John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, 1993; 2001)
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Networked Terrorism
• Social interactions
• Affiliation networks
Ties developed at events or activities, like sporting events, clubs, or
religious meetings
• Communities of identity
– Communities of locality
• District or geographic region in which people live, interact, or under which they
are governed
• Examples: neighborhood, village, city, town or province
– Communities of interest
• Communities formed around a common interest or shared experience
• Examples: prisoners or inmates, members of the military, scientists, sports
enthusiasts, and hobbyists comprise communities of interest.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Networked Terrorism
Three important concepts in social network analysis (SNA): diversity,
redundancy, and adaptability
• Diversity of identity = individuals often have multiple identities: a
familial identity, an employment identity, a religious identity, an
academic identity, etc.
• Redundancy = individuals sharing multiple identities across
networks (e.g., two individuals attending the same church,
graduating from the same university, and working in the same office
building).
– Multiple shared identities (location, religion, education, and
employment) means that some links between sets of individuals may be
disproportionately strong.
• Adaptability = relationships change over time - a social network may
evolve as a person’s interests change, he moves to another
community, or his position within that community shifts.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Terrorist Network Structures
Source: Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy, John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt (eds.),
November 2001
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Terrorist Network Structures
Source: On Distributed Communications: Introduction to Distributed Communications Networks, Paul Baran, August
1964
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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UNCLASSIFIED
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Global Terrorism
Networks
Interconnected terrorist
groups, criminal
organizations, individuals,
etc. around the world.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Global Terrorism Networks
Interconnected terrorist groups,
criminal organizations,
individuals, etc. around the
world.
Shared strategies
Sharing tactics, training
Cross-fertilization, interorganizational learning
Shared profits from
trafficking in drugs, arms,
other contraband
Increasingly connected
via technologies/Internet
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Strategy and Training
Establish training camps – developing the will to kill and the skill to kill
• Operational space: Geographic isolation
• Teachers: Experts in relevant knowledge, e.g., military combat experience
• Committed learners
• Time, money, and basic necessities
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Afghanistan
Algeria
Bosnia
Chechnya
Colombia
Egypt
Indonesia
Japan
Kashmir
Lebanon
Libya
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Northern Ireland
Peru
The Philippines
Somalia
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Syria
Turkey
United States
Uzbekistan
Think back to your basic training or basic officer courses...
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Director of Terrorism Studies
Global Salafi
Network
Interconnected by common
ideology (Militant Islam
revivalist movement), with
strong bonds formed through
fighting together, family, etc.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Terrorist Networks
Even though it’s a decentralized network, there are still critical
functions that enable the network to operate
• Critical functionary roles – can become a hub of multiple networks
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weapons procurement
financier (funder or banker) (particularly in Halawa system)
document forgerer
human traffickers
• Support individuals (trusted contacts) can and sometimes do
support multiple networks; can provide supplies/facilitate trafficking
of weapons & funds to multiple networks
• Example: 60% of day spent moving legitimate charity money
around; 20% of day on Hamas transactions, other activity on side
• Some may get profit for doing these support/function roles
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Different members
of the network
play support and
action roles
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Networked Terrorism
Implications:
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We tend to target operational (attack/combat) cells and
overlook support cells that disseminate propaganda,
recruit members, procure supplies, maintain transport,
forge false and adapted identities, facilitate travel, and
organize safe houses.
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For example, operating through front, cover, and
sympathetic organizations, Al Qaeda and its associate
groups established charities, human rights groups,
humanitarian organizations, community centers, and
religious associations to raise funds and recruit youth.
(Gunaratna)
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Networks to Map
Relationship/
Data Sources
Network
Table 3: Networks to Map
1. Trust
Prior contacts in family, neighborhood, school, military, club or
organization. Public and court records. Data may only be available
in suspect's native country.
2. Task
Logs and records of phone calls, electronic mail, chat rooms,
instant messages, Web site visits. Travel records. Human
intelligence: observation of meetings and attendance at common
events.
3. Money &
Resources
Bank account and money transfer records. Pattern and location of
credit card use. Prior court records. Human intelligence:
observation of visits to alternate banking resources such as
Hawala.
4. Strategy &
Goals
Web sites. Videos and encrypted disks delivered by courier. Travel
records. Human intelligence: observation of meetings and
attendance at common events.
Krebs, 2002 - http://www.firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_4/krebs
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Knowledge Transfer and Terrorist Networks
• Learning Organizations = committed to capturing
knowledge, analyzing it, forming new doctrine and tactics
which are informed by lessons from the past
– Learn from each other
– Learn from trial and error (IRA example)
– Media showcasing ‘best practices’ to others
– Managing public image (PR)
(becoming more sophisticated)
• Emerging professional networks in the terrorist world
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Knowledge Transfer and Terrorist Networks
The network challenge
• “As far back as 1968 the PLO . . . had welcomed terrorists
from around the world to their guerilla camps in Jordan for
training, indoctrination, and the general building of
transnational revolutionary bridges. In this respect, the
Palestinians pioneered the ‘networking’ dimension of
international terrorism still in evidence among many groups
today.”
Bruce Hoffman, 1997, p. 82
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Knowledge Transfer and Terrorist Networks
The network challenge
• “Strategic partnerships” between Al Qaeda and groups
like Hezbollah, Jemaah Islamiya, HT, IMU, and MILF, as
well as drug cartels in Latin America and other criminal
organizations
• For example, “Hezbollah . . . trained Al Qaeda fighters in
Sudan, Lebanon, Iran . . .” (Gunaratna, 2002, p. 196)
(why would Shiite Muslims work so closely with Sunni Muslims?)
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Challenges of Terror Networks
Overall CT challenge: How to fight a network of networks
Specific challenges include:
• Identifying network members, especially when membership is
hidden until demonstrated by overt behavior
• Determining network structure, leadership/decision-making
cells
• Intelligence gathering/Infiltrating the network
• Defending against an attack from unknown network members
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
1. Joining the Jihad
• 1.1 Decide on Jihad
• 1.2 Joining the Jihad in Spirit
• 1.3 Praying Honestly for Martyrdom
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
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Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
2. Financially Aiding the Jihad
• 2.1 Jihad Through Money
• 2.2 Tending to the Fighter’s Family
• 2.3 Tending to Families of Martyrs
• 2.4 Supporting the Families of Wounded and
Imprisoned Fighters
• 2.5 Collecting Donations
• 2.6 Paying the Alms Tax for the Mujahidin
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
3. Other Support for Jihad
• 3.1 Outfitting a Fighter
• 3.2 Healing the Wounded
• 3.3 Sheltering the Mujhadin and Providing
them with Hospitality
• 3.4 Freeing and/or Ransoming Prisoners
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
4. Public Education
• 4.1 Praising the Mujahidin and Commemorating their Exploits
• 4.2 Defending the Mujahidin
• 4.3 Exposing the Hypocrites and Defeatists
• 4.4 Urging People Toward Jihad
• 4.5 Distributing books and Brochures
• 4.6 Advising Muslims and the Mujahidin
• 4.7 Distributing News of the Jihad
• 4.8 Keeping Scholars Informed
• 4.9 Spreading News of Prisoners
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
5. Aiding the Mujahideen Directly
• 5.1 Encouraging the Mujahidin
• 5.2 Guiding the Mujahidin
• 5.3 Concealing the Mujahidin’s Secrets
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
6. Jihad Through Prayer
• 6.1 Praying for the Mujahidin
• 6.2 Qunut: Prayers in time of calamity
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
7. Preparing for Active Jihad
• 7.1 Physical Training
• 7.2 Weapons Training and Marksmanship
• 7.3 Swimming and Horsemanship
• 7.4 First Aid
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
8. Intellectual Preparation
• 8.1 Learning the Jurisprudence of Jihad
• 8.2 Hostility and Hatred of the Infidels
• 8.3 Electronic Jihad
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
9. Living as a “Good Muslim”
• 9.1 Discouraging Friendship w/ Polytheists
• 9.2 Abandoning Luxury
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• 9.3 Boycotting Goods
• 9.4 Avoid Employing Hostile Labor
• 9.5 Raising Children to Love Jihad
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
Questions?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Dr. James Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies