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Overview of the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Water Center at Colorado Mesa University Upper Colorado River Basin Water Forum October 31, 2011 Ted Kowalski, Chief of the Interstate and Federal Section, Colorado Water Conservation Board Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Overview and Status of the Study Historical and Future Water Supply and Demand Next Steps Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Study Objective Assess future water supply and demand imbalances and develop/evaluate opportunities for resolving imbalances Studied being conducted by Reclamation and the Basin States, in collaboration with stakeholders throughout the Basin Study began in January 2010 and will be completed by July 2012 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/ crbstudy.html A planning study – will not result in any decisions Historic Colorado River Water Supply & Use (Annual) 6 Study Outreach Hydropower Recreation Western, CREDA. others Ecosystem NGO collaborative. others NPS, Concessionaires, others Native American Tribes and Communities Lower Basin, Upper Basin Colorado River Basin Water Supply & Demand Study Endangered Species FWS, others Other Water Deliveries Water Districts (agriculture, M&I use) General public, other interested stakeholder groups Options for Participation in the Study (not mutually exclusive) Monitor project website, webinars, emails Review and comment on products Receive periodic updates (formal and/or informal) Establish points-of-contact with the “Study Team” (Reclamation and the Basin States representatives) Participate in Study working groups (“Sub-Teams”) Other Study Phases and Tasks Phase 1: Water Supply Assessment Phase 2: Water Demand Assessment Phase 3: System Reliability Analysis Phase 4: Development & Evaluation of Opportunities 1.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Supply 2.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Demand 3.1 – Identify Reliability Metrics 4.1 – Develop Opportunities 1.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Supply Formulate Approach to Include Uncertainty 2.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Demand 1.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Supply 1.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Supply Develop Future Supply and Demand Scenarios Green denotes essentially complete 3.2 – Estimate Baseline System Reliability 2.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Demand 3.3 – Project Future System Reliability 2.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Demand 3.3.5-3.3.8 – Project Future Reliability with Opportunities 4.2 – Evaluate and Refine Opportunities 4.3 – Finalize Opportunities Interim Report No. 1 Interim reports provide a comprehensive “snapshot” of the Study’s progress to date • Approach facilitates the integration of continuous technical developments and the ongoing input of stakeholders Interim Report No. 1 is a “snapshot” as of January 31, 2011 and is available at: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/pro grams/crbstudy.html • Historic Colorado River Water Supply & Use (10-year Running Average) 7 Natural Flow Colorado River at Lees Ferry Gaging Station, Arizonao 2011 Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ - Natural Flow 30 30 Annual Flow (MAF) Average 10-yr Average 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Provisional data, subject to change Water Year Estimated values for 2009-2011 Water Year Snowpack and Precipitation as of September 12, 2011 Colorado River Basin above Lake Powell Water Year Precipitation (year-to-date) 123% Source: CBRFC Colorado River Basin Storage (as of September 11, 2011) Current Storage Percent Full MAF Elevation (Feet) Lake Powell 73% 17.75 3,654 Lake Mead 49% 12.80 1,114 Total System Storage* 65% 38.85 NA *Total system storage was 33.50 maf or 56% this time last year Addressing an Uncertain Future The path of major influences on the Colorado River system is uncertain and can not be represented by a single view • An infinite number of plausible futures exist • A manageable and informative number of scenarios are being developed to explore the broad range of futures (adapted from Timpe and Scheepers, 2003) Water Supply Scenarios * Observed Resampled: hydroclimatic trends and variability are similar to the past 100 years Paleo Resampled: future hydroclimatic trends and variability are represented by reconstructions of streamflow for a much longer period in the past (nearly 1250 years) that show expanded variability Paleo-Conditioned: future hydrologic trends and variability are represented by a blend of the wet-dry states of the longer paleoreconstructed period (nearly 1250 years), but magnitudes are more similar to the observed period (about 100 years) Downscaled GCM Projected: future climate will continue to warm with regional precipitation and temperature trends represented through an ensemble of future downscaled GCM projections * Preliminary – Subject to change Projections of Natural Flow at Lees Ferry 2011 – 2060 Period Mean Annual Flows Observed 102 Traces Mean = 15002 Direct Paleo 1244 Traces Mean = 14675 Paleo Conditioned 1000 Traces Mean= 14937 112 Traces Climate Projections Mean = 13588 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 1988 – 2007 period mean Preliminary Box represents 25th – 75th percentile, whiskers represent min and max, and triangle represents mean of all traces Water Demand Scenarios * Current Trends: growth, development patterns, and institutions continue along recent trends Economic Slowdown: low growth with emphasis on economic efficiency Expansive Growth: economic resurgence (population and energy) and current preferences toward human and environmental values ** Enhanced Environment and Healthy Economy: expanded environmental awareness and stewardship with growing economy ** * Preliminary – Subject to change ** Additional “branches” possible depending upon assumed trajectory of specific socio-economic factors System Reliability Metrics (Metrics) Metrics are measures that indicate the ability of the system to meet the needs of Basin resources Metrics will be used to quantify the impacts to Basin resources from future supply and demand imbalances Interim Report No. 1 includes metrics defined as of January 31, 2011 Additional metrics are being considered Flow-based indicator for ecosystem health Indicator to show unused but allocated water, particularly for tribal water Metrics Resource Categories Depletions Electrical Power Resources Water Quality Flood Control Recreational Resources Ecological Resources Study Phases and Tasks Phase 1: Water Supply Assessment Phase 2: Water Demand Assessment Phase 3: System Reliability Analysis Phase 4: Development & Evaluation of Opportunities 1.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Supply 2.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Demand 3.1 – Identify Reliability Metrics 4.1 – Develop Opportunities 1.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Supply Formulate Approach to Include Uncertainty 1.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Supply 1.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Supply Develop Future Supply and Demand Scenarios 2.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Demand 3.2 – Estimate Baseline System Reliability 2.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Demand 3.3 – Project Future System Reliability 2.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Demand 3.3.5-3.3.8 – Project Future Reliability with Opportunities Yellow denotes current and future steps.. 4.2 – Evaluate and Refine Opportunities 4.3 – Finalize Opportunities Milestones & Updated Study Timeline February – August 2011 Quantify Demand Scenarios August – November 2011 Perform “Baseline” System Reliability Analysis September – December 2011 Develop Options & Strategies October 2011 Publish Interim Report No. 2 November 2011 – February 2012 Perform System Reliability Analysis with Options & Strategies March 2012 Publish Interim Report No. 3 April – May 2012 Finalize & Evaluate Options & Strategies June 2012 Publish Draft Final Study Report July 2012 Publish Final Study Report Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Study Contact Information • Website: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy.html • Email: [email protected] • Telephone: 702-293-8500; Fax: 702-293-8148 •Ted Kowalski, Colorado Water Conservation Board •Telephone: 303-866-3441, Ext. 3220 •Email: [email protected]