Transcript IGU 2007 - Chinese University of Hong Kong

Demographic Impacts on
Environmental Security
A Conceptual View
4th Int. Conference on Population Geographies
12. July 2007, Hong Kong
Frank Swiaczny
[email protected]
Federal Institute for Population Research
Wiesbaden (Germany)
www.bib-demographie.de
Content
1. Key Demographic Trends
• Global View
• Small Scale Patterns - Example: Germany
2. Population and Environment
Linkages between Demographic Processes
and the Environment
3. Environmental Security
4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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1. World Population Growth 1950-2050 (in 1,000)
14.000.000
12.000.000
10.000.000
8.000.000
6.000.000
4.000.000
2.000.000
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Constant-fertility variant
High variant
Low variant
Medium variant
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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1. Population Density 1950-2050 (per km²)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Least developed countries
Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries
More developed regions
World
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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1. Percentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
Least developed countries
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries
2005
2010
2015
2020
More developed regions
2025
2030
World
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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1. Population Density 1950-2050 (per km²), by Region
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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1. Percentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %), by Region
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
Africa
1970
Asia
1975
1980
Europe
1985
1990
1995
2000
Latin America and the Caribbean
2005
2010
Northern America
2015
2020
2025
2030
Oceania
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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1. Population Density 1950-2005 (Change in %), by Country
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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1. Population Density 2005-2050 (Change in %), by Country
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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1. Small Scale Spatial Patterns – The German Example
Population Density 2020 (per km²)
Population Change 2000-2020 (in %)
Change 2000-2020 in %
-29...-10
-10...-5
-5...5
5...10
10...66
66...66
Population per km²
0...84
84...107,3
107,3...129,5
129,5...160,4
160,4...197
197...280
280...469
469...776
776...1400
1400...3950
Source: BBR INKAR Pro
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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2. Population and Environment
Human
Well-being
Indirect
Drivers
Ecosystem
Services
Direct
Drivers
Source: UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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2. Population and Environment
Source: UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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2. Population and Environment
Source: UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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3. Environmental Security
Contextual
constraints
Response
__________
social change
politicalchange
technologicalchange
cultural change
__________
__________
basic supply
basic supply
health
health
social security
social security
education
education
...
Drivers
__________
__________
formation of opinions
formation of opinions
governance
governance
participation
participation
Land
Landuse
use
__________
__________
spatial (structural )
spatial (structural )
intensity (functional )
intensity (functional)
...
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
services
services
__________
__________
provisioning
provisioning
regulating
regulating
cultural
cultural
supporting
supporting
Landscape
Landscape
state
state/ /integrity
integrity
__________
__________
structural
structural
functional
functional
State
Environmental
security is related to
the risks of loosing
ecosystem services
Human
Human
well-being
well-being
Decision
Decision
process
process
Pressure
Demographic
change as a
focal item of
case studies
Impact
Environmental
security can influence
the overall security
of a political System
system
Drivers
Drivers
__________
__________
socioeconomic
socioeconomic
sociopolitical
sociopolitical
demographic
demographic
technological
technological
cultural/religious
cultural/religious
Contextual
constraints
__________
external
environmental
changes
Source: NATO CCMS Pilot Study Group „Use of Landscape Science for Environmental Assessment“
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction
Visions, Guiding Principles, Policy Objectives
e.g. Public Health, Security, Quality of Life, Landscape Quality Objectives, Resilience, Sustainability
Provision/Usage of
Ecosystem Services
Demographic
Processes
Development
Structure
Spatial Distribution
SocioEconomic
Subsystem
Economic
and Social
Well Being
Public Health
Resource Change
Ecosystem
Services
Landscape
Processes
Provisions
Regulations
Support
Cultural/Information
Development
Land Use Intensity
Structure + Functions
?
Individual Decisions - Human Demand
of Ecosystem Services
Resource
Use
Ecological
Environmental
Subsystem
Contextual Constraints
e.g. Economy, Law, Technology, Institutional Settings, Environmental Characteristics, Medical Care Structure
System regulation/demand-supply
Modifying influenes/relationships
Source: Swiaczny 2007
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction
Micro-Macro Model
Macro
Demographic Change
Landscape Change
Human Action
Micro
Individual Needs and Decisions
Modified after Coleman
Source: Swiaczny 2007
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction
Population Dynamics
Macro Level Processes
Task:
Selecting
Appropriate
Indicators
Sex and Age
Selective Migration
= Populationt + Birth – Death + In-migration – Out-migration
Life Exp. Growth
t+1
Fertility Decline
Population
Ageing
Society
Urbanization
Sub-urbanization
Depopulation
Economy
Ecology
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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For further information please contact
[email protected]
Publications of the
Federal Institute for Population Research at
www.bib-demographie.de
Frank Swiaczny
© BiB 2007
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