Transcript Slide 1

Fishmeal and fish oil:
A summary of global trends
Dr Enrico Bachis, IFFO
Ischia, 4th October 2013
Percentage of IFFO RS material
FM world
FM world members
FM Peru
FM Peru members
FM+FO world
FM+FO world members
FM+FO Peru
FM+FO Peru members
2010
22.3%
40.7%
71.8%
80.3%
23.6%
40.5%
72.1%
80.7%
2011
36.9%
68.3%
79.0%
84.8%
38.5%
67.9%
81.6%
87.4%
2012
39.0%
83.1%
80.8%
83.6%
40.4%
83.7%
82.9%
85.8%
Raw material in IV quarter* (000 mt)
2011
2012
3,252
1,639
*Peru, Chile, USA, IFFO Europe and South Africa
Raw material (000 mt)
2011
2012
7,097
3,613
2,731
Peru
2,405
Chile
Total raw material in I quarter* (000 mt)
2011
2012
2013
2,782
2,445
2,012
*Peru, Chile, USA, IFFO Europe and South Africa
Raw material (000 mt)
2011
2012
2013
7,097
3,613
3,387
2,731
2,405
1,733
Peru
Chile
Raw material (000 mt)
2011
2012
1,593
1,477
2013
1,498
1,388
1,344
1,200
992
892
715
445
247
Denmark/Norway
Iceland/North
Atlantic
USA
308
South Africa
Total raw material* (000 mt)
2011
2012
2013
13,727
10,154
9,184
*Peru, Chile, USA, IFFO Europe and South Africa
Peruvian quotas for the North-Central areas
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
First Period Second Period
5,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
3,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2,070,000
3,675,000
2,500,000
2,700,000
810,000
2,050,000
2,000,000
Total
7,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
4,570,000
6,175,000
3,510,000
4,050,000
Fishmeal physical stocks I quarter
(mt)
2012
2013
165,750
76,391
Peru
Total fishmeal production I quarter*
(000 mt)
2011
2012
2013
552
458
373
*Peru, Chile, USA, IFFO Europe and South Africa
Fishmeal production
2011
1,680
842
2012
2013
787
550
Peru
483
Chile
395
Total fishmeal production*
2011
2012
2013
2,557
1,608
1,546
*Peru, Chile, USA, IFFO Europe and South Africa
Peru fishmeal production (mt)
2012
2013
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Chile fishmeal production (mt)
2012
2013
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Europe fishmeal production (mt)
2012
2013
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
USA fishmeal production (mt)
2012
2013
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
World fishmeal production (000 mt)
Peru
Chile
Thailand
U.S.A
Japan
Scandinavia*
Others
7,000.0
6,084
6,000.0
6,018
5,354
5,269
5,587
5,519
5,091
5,000.0
4,838
4,535 4,672
4,560
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
World fish oil production (000 mt)
Peru
Chile
Scandinavia*
U.S.A
Japan
Other
1,200.0
1,035
1,000.0
1,029
906
886
1,037
1,036
993
903 885
915
841
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1 2009
9 2009
17 2009
25 2009
33 2009
41 2009
49 2009
4 2010
12 2010
20 2010
28 2010
36 2010
44 2010
52 2010
8 2011
16 2011
24 2011
32 2011
40 2011
48 2011
4 2012
12 2012
20 2012
28 2012
36 2012
44 2012
52 2012
8 2013
16 2013
24 2013
32 2013
Average weekly Peruvian fishmeal prices (FOB)
(US$/mt)
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
Super Prime
FAQ
0
Wk 49 1993
Wk 12 1994
Wk 27 1994
Wk 42 1994
Wk 05 1995
Wk 20 1995
Wk 35 1995
Wk 50 1995
Wk 13 1996
Wk 28 1996
Wk 43 1996
Wk 06 1997
Wk 21 1997
Wk 36 1997
Wk 51 1997
Wk 14 1998
Wk 29 1998
Wk 44 1998
Wk 06 1999
Wk 21 1999
Wk 36 1999
Wk 51 1999
Wk 14 2000
Wk 29 2000
Wk 44 2000
Wk 07 2001
Wk 22 2001
Wk 37 2001
Wk 52 2001
Wk 15 2002
Wk 30 2002
Wk 45 2002
Wk 08 2003
Wk 23 2003
Wk 38 2003
Wk 01 2003
Wk 16 2004
Wk 31 2004
Wk 46 2004
Wk 08 2005
Wk 23 2005
Wk 38 2005
Wk 01 2006
Wk 16 2006
Wk 31 2006
Wk 46 2006
Wk09 2007
Wk24 2007
Wk39 2007
Wk 02 2008
Wk 17 2008
Wk 32 2008
Wk 47 2008
Wk 10 2009
Wk 25 2009
Wk 40 2009
Wk 2 2010
Wk 17 2010
Wk 32 2010
Wk 47 2010
Wk 10 2011
Wk 25 2011
Wk 40 2011
Wk 3 2012
Wk 18 2012
Wk 33 2012
Wk 48 2012
11 2013
26 2013
F.O.B. (F.A.Q.) Peruvian fishmeal and Brazilian
soyabean prices (US$/mt)
FOB FAQ PERU
FISHMEAL US$/MT
FOB BRASIL
SOYAMEAL US$/MT
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
52 2008
9 2009
18 2009
27 2009
36 2009
45 2009
1 2010
10 2010
19 2010
28 2010
37 2010
46 2010
3 2011
12 2011
21 2011
30 2011
39 2011
48 2011
5 2012
14 2012
23 2012
32 2012
41 2012
50 2012
7 2013
16 2013
25 2013
34 2013
Soybean meal 44% (FOT) prices
in Shanghai and Hamburg
RMB/mt
US$/mt
5,200
550.00
4,700
500.00
450.00
4,200
400.00
3,700
350.00
300.00
3,200
250.00
2,700
200.00
52 2008
10 2009
20 2009
30 2009
40 2009
50 2009
7 2010
17 2010
27 2010
37 2010
47 2010
5 2011
15 2011
25 2011
35 2011
45 2011
3 2012
13 2012
23 2012
33 2012
43 2012
1 2013
11 2013
21 2013
31 2013
Weekly fishmeal (65% FOT) and
soyameal (44% FOT) ratio in Shanghai
(RMB/mt)
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1 2009
12 2009
23 2009
34 2009
45 2009
3 2010
14 2010
25 2010
36 2010
47 2010
6 2011
17 2011
28 2011
39 2011
50 2011
9 2012
20 2012
31 2012
42 2012
1 2013
12 2013
23 2013
34 2013
Average Peruvian
feed fish oil prices (FOB)
(US$/mt)
2,850
2,350
1,850
1,350
850
350
1 2010
9 2010
17 2010
25 2010
33 2010
41 2010
49 2010
5 2011
13 2011
21 2011
29 2011
37 2011
45 2011
1 2012
9 2012
17 2012
25 2012
33 2012
41 2012
49 2012
5 2013
13 2013
21 2013
29 2013
37 2013
C&F fish oil/rapeseed oil prices ratio in
Rotterdam (Netherlands) (US$/mt)
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
27 2009
33 2009
39 2009
45 2009
51 2009
4 2010
10 2010
16 2010
22 2010
28 2010
34 2010
40 2010
46 2010
52 2010
6 2011
12 2011
18 2011
24 2011
30 2011
36 2011
42 2011
48 2011
2 2012
8 2012
14 2012
20 2012
26 2012
32 2012
38 2012
44 2012
50 2012
4 2013
10 2013
16 2013
22 2013
28 2013
34 2013
Difference between the Peruvian FOB
omega-3 and fish oil prices (US$/mt)
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
Thank you/Gratzias/Grazie