Transcript Slide 1
What makes for a Smart Utility? Presentation at Advanced Energy 2012 October 31st, 2012 Mani Vadari Modern Grid Solutions Copyright Modern Grid Solutions - All Rights Reserved Traditional Utility Regulatory Environmental Organization Utility Transformation Customer Business Technology Operations & Process Copyright Modern Grid Solutions - All Rights Reserved Transformed Utility Key Dimensions of Utility Transformation Utility TransformationAn Evolutionary Process Analogous to a Feedback Loop Smart Grid Drivers +/- Disruptive Technologies +/- +/- Utility Transformation Process Desired Utility Transformation Characteristics +/- Retail Choice Disruptive Business Models/Processes Key Points: The Smart Grid drivers impact various aspects/dimensions of a utility via the transformation process. Factors such as disruptive technologies and retail choice can have a positive or negative impact on the transformation, depending on the specific utility and its processes. The utility transformation process when applied in a phased manner to all dimensions of the utility, will lead to the achievement of some desired characteristics of a transformed utility. However, the utility will continually need to take into account disruptive business models/processes that can have an amplified effect on the desired end-state, and adjust its transformation process accordingly. Transformation is an evolutionary process and its adoption will put the utility on the path to the Smart Grid. Copyright Modern Grid Solutions - All Rights Reserved Transformed Utility-Integrated Utility System Picture Source: GTM Research Copyright Modern Grid Solutions - All Rights Reserved Smart Grid Implementation MethodologyA Process for Building the Utility Business Case that address all aspects of the Utility’s Business and not just Technology Utility Smart Grid Vision Desired Future State Assessment Current State Assessment Gap Analysis Business Case Set of Solutions Optimization Finalization of Business Case & Roadmap Implementation Plan Copyright Modern Grid Solutions - All Rights Reserved Source: Adapted from NETL Smart Grid Technology Progression: 2012-2030 AMI Intro CS R&D DR Intro DMS/DA Intro 2012 Growth Intro R&D Source: Adapted from Zpryme Growth Intro R&D ICT Growth Intro R&D DER Maturity Intro R&D AO Growth Growth R&D TA Maturity Growth Growth Intro 2015 Growth 2020 Copyright Modern Grid Solutions - All Rights Reserved 2025 2030 Smart Grid Roadmap: We believe that the Smart Grid marketplace will evolve into full adoption based on changing market drivers and availability of cost-justified @Scale technology Market Drivers Market redesign Integrate Distributed Energy Optimize the grid and Sweat assets Incremental change w/known technologies - Happening and predictable Smart Grid Experiments Playing around – Happening and predictable 2010 2012 2015 2020 Smart Grid Experiments 2030? Optimize the grid and sweat assets • Patch work and fragmented subsidy, incentive or regulatory support - Big focus ARRA funding • Economically sound technologies (mostly on utility side of meter) deployed without special regulatory or subsidy support (e.g. IVVC, DA, PMUs, IEDs) • Patch work implementation, synergistic benefits not realized • Efficiency drives deployment of technologies where the rising price of power make the business case sound • Integration and interoperability barriers prevent realization of full potential of smart grid technologies. Standards for devices and device interoperability will be established but fragmented without economy of scale • Some technology, business and policy "winners" and some "losers" • Regulatory support for proven smart grid technologies widespread • Integration, interoperability and optimization of leading smart grid technologies demonstrated and deployed through use of standards • Consumer behavior and program participation and benefits will be better quantified and understood • PMUs in place in T, new for D. • Aggregators (e.g. Comverge) arriving on scene • AMI penetration increasing – customer focus/DR is increasing. • Focus is on AMI implementation • Aggregators gaining critical mass • Key focus on reliability enhancement, grid optimization, demand response • Operations focus on (DMS/OMS) and single source of model (GIS) is key. • AMI Meter • Private wireless • PHEV/PEVs @scale • Public wireless (Cellular?) Copyright Modern Grid Solutions - All Rights Reserved Smart Grid Roadmap: While waves 1 and 2 are more predictable from a technology direction perspective, waves 3 and 4 are more unpredictable both from extent and timing perspective because of too many unknowns in policy, regulatory directions, and availability of economically feasible @scale technology Market Drivers Market redesign Depends on national energy policy and regulatory directions Integrate Distributed Energy Depends on storage and renewables breaking reliability and economic barriers Optimize the grid and Sweat assets Smart Grid Experiments 2010 2012 2015 2020 Integrate Distributed Generation, Storage, Active Demand Response etc. 2030? Market Redesign • Policy and regulatory drivers provide price signals that make customer sited DG • Electrical grid supports two way power/information flow and is produced and cost competitive consumed at several nodes and energy/capacity priced@real time • Storage breaks $500/kWh barrier and is widely deployed by C&I customers for load leveling and backup power • Significant in-roads by storage and renewable energy. Distributed Generation at 10% of total energy generation and dispatchable using digital control technologies • Renewables become widely deployed due to national RPS and low capital costs. • C&I customers buy and sell energy/capacity both in advance and real time to • PHEVs/PEVs reach 15% penetration and provide backup power and demand optimize a variety of constraints reduction with smart grid technologies • Utility portfolio combines traditional gen, renewables, DR and storage • Residential DR with dynamic energy products and pricing options commonplace • Key grid focus is on self-healing grid and real-time analytics and optimization • Core utility focusing on wires and reliability, aggregators servicing customers • Full retail choice everywhere • Customer fully engaged – DR is in • High visibility/controllability in T and D – self-healing grid appears on horizon. • Residential energy services integrated with other digital services like cellular, entertainment, automotive, home automation, security and health services. • Storage @scale • V2G prevalent @scale/Adv storage • Renewables @scale • Adv materials – superconductors, advanced transformers, and cdv controls (Distribution PMUs) prevalent Copyright Modern Grid Solutions - All Rights Reserved