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Skills and Learning
Intelligence Module

Ben Neild
 SLIM - Manager
 Marchmont Observatory
 [email protected]
www.swslim.org.uk
Helpdesk - 01392 264850
Employment in Skilled Trades
Employment Levels ‘000’s
Skilled Trades
All Occupations
% Share of all employment
Skilled Trades
1981
1991
1999
2005
2010
4,256
4,028
3,780
3,662
3,584
24,489
26,020
27,546
28,598
29,673
1981
17.4
1991
15.5
1999
13.7
2005
12.8
Source: CE/IER, Projections of Occupations and Qualifications 2000/2001
Overall decline in employment - 196,000 Jobs from 1999 to 2010
2010
12.1
Occupational changes 1998-2009
Managers & Senior Officials
Professionals
Assoc Professional & Technical
Admin, Clerical & Secretarial
Skilled Trades
Personal Service
Sales & Customer Service
Process, Plant & Machine
Elementary Occupations
Whole workforce
-10%
Source: DfEE, Labour Market and Skills Trends, 1998/99
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Skilled Trades - SOC 2000 Categories
Employment Levels ‘000’s
Skilled Agricultural Trades
Metal forming, welding and related trades
Metal machining, Fitting and Instrument making
Vehicle Trades
Electrical Trades
Skilled Metal and Electrical Trades
Construction and Building Trades
Building Trades
Skilled Construction and Building Trades
Textiles and Garments Trades
Printing Trades
Food Preparation Trades
Skilled Trades NEC
Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades
1999
328
211
459
298
577
1,545
765
235
1,001
81
121
525
178
905
Source: CE/IER, Projections of Occupations and Qualifications 2000/2001
2010
290
174
392
283
582
1,432
705
231
936
53
119
552
202
926
1999-2010
-39
-37
-67
-15
5
-114
-61
-4
-65
-29
-2
28
24
21
Change p.a.
-1.1%
-1.7%
-1.4%
-0.5%
0.1%
-0.7%
0.7%
-0.2%
-0.6%
-3.9%
-0.2%
0.5%
1.2%
-0.2%
Total requirement for labour 1999 - 2010
Skilled Trades
1,347
Net Requirement
1,543
Total Loss
269
Outward Mobility
1,273
Retirement
-197
Expansion or decline
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Skilled Trades - Employment in South West
South West
1999
2010
change pa
1999-2010
UK
change pa
1999-2010
-8
-1.8%
-1.1%
132
1
0.1%
-0.7%
98
104
7
0.6%
-0.6%
78
87
9
1.0%
0.2%
Employment Levels ‘000’s
1981
1991
Skilled Agricultural Trades
47
48
42
34
144
141
130
Skilled Construction & Building
Trades
91
108
Textiles, Printing and other skilled
Trades
58
71
Skilled Metal and Electrical Trades
Source: CE/IER, Projections of Occupations and Qualifications 2000/2001
1999
-2010
Employment Growth
Levels ‘000’s
South West
UK
1999
2010
Growth
% Growth
2,301
2,567
266
11.6%
27,546
29,673
2,217
8.1%
Source: CE/IER estimates, F02F9 Forecast.
Population Growth
Levels ‘000’s
2001-2011
2011-2021
2001-2021
Aged - 15-29
65.5
-13.7
51.8
Aged - 16-64
179.2
10.3
189.5
Source: CE/IER estimates, F02F9 Forecast.
Migration

Net in-migration to the South West is forecast
at c25,000 per annum to 2021

However….

40% are under 16 or over 65

Net out-migration for 16-24 year olds
of Vacancies
by Occupation
Distribution ofDistribution
vacancies
by Occupation
25
Employment
percentage
20
15
Vacancies
10
Hard-to-fill
vacancies
5
es
sio
in
in
al
/S
ec
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ta
ria
Sk
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ill
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Pe
tr
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Sa
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le
s/C
lS
er
us
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to
ce
m
er
Se
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ic
e
O
pe
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t iv
es
El
em
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ta
ry
of
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A
ss
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pr
of
Pr
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an
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s
s
0
Skillshortage
vacancies
Impact of skill shortage vacancies on
performance by occupation
Skilled
Trades
All Occ's
Differential
Sales /
Customer
Service
Loss of business / orders to
competitors
61%
34%
+27%
36%
Delays developing new products
60%
50%
+10%
31%
Withdrawal of services / products
52%
29%
+23%
23%
Difficulties with customer services
63%
51%
+12%
48%
Difficulties with Quality Standards
37%
30%
+7%
27%
Increased operating costs
59%
39%
+20%
23%
Difficulties with Technical Change
43%
19%
+24%
10%
Difficulties with new working
practices
24%
24%
0%
9%
Don't know / not specified
7%
14%
-7%
37%
Source:
ESS2001
(IFF/IER)
Productivity gap
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
UK
Source: OECD
Germany
France
US
Manufacturing Productivity
35.0
34.0
33.0
'000s
32.0
31.0
South West
England
United Kingdom
30.0
29.0
28.0
27.0
26.0
25.0
1994
Source: ABI, ONS
1995
1996
1997
Qualifications in the workplace
100%
13%
10%
80%
60%
14%
23%
21%
45%
Source: DfEE, LFS, 2001
19%
22%
20%
27%
0%
1979
24%
13%
18%
40%
20%
16%
1989
15%
2000
Level 4/5
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1
No quals.
Employee Skill Levels
100
80
60
High
Intermediate
40
Low
20
0
UK
Source: OECD, 1999
Fance
Germany
Skills and Learning
Intelligence Module
www.swslim.org.uk
Helpdesk - 01392 264850
Activity Rates
Males
Females
All
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Austria
Germany
Portugal
France
Irish Republic
Belgium
Luxembourg
Greece
Spain
Italy
85.0
78.9
78.8
84.1
82.6
80.5
79.3
79.1
75.5
78.3
73.0
75.7
76.9
76.2
73.7
76.1
73.9
74.0
68.4
64.4
62.7
62.9
63.0
62.2
54.4
56.0
50.2
49.7
48.5
45.6
80.6
76.4
76.4
76.3
73.6
71.6
71.2
70.9
68.8
66.4
64.6
63.1
62.9
62.1
59.6
EU average
78.1
59.2
68.6
Source:
Labour Force
Surveys, Eurostat
Why have older men stopped working?

Economic activity rate for 60 - 64 year olds fell from
80% to 50% from 1980 - 2000

Economic activity rate for 55 to 59 year olds fell from
90% to 75%

By mid 1990’s, a quarter of 60-64 year old males a fifth
of 55-59 year old males were in receipt of invalidity
benefits

Only one third of 60 year old males are in employment
Disney - ‘Why have older men stopped working?, The state of working Britain, 1998.
Participation in Education & Training by Age
90%
80%
70%
81%
70%
60%
50%
50%
47%
41%
40%
30%
30%
20%
10%
0%
17-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
Age
Skills and Learning
Intelligence Module
www.swslim.org.uk
Helpdesk - 01392 264850