Transcript Document

State of the
Confectionery Industry
State of the
Confectionery Industry
Second half growth carries category
Retail Sales – IRI 52 Weeks
June 16
December 28
+1.1%
+2.2%
Manufacturers YTD Shipments
June 30
-3.1% Lbs.
+1.4% $
December 31 -0.5% Lbs
+3.2% $
2003
Retail Confectionery Sales
•
•
•
•
Total
Chocolate
Non-Chocolate
Gum
$24.8 Billion
$13.5 Billion
$7.6 Billion
$3.0 Billion
NCA Estimates base on U.S. Dpt. Of Commerce 311D Report
Candy & Gum
Retail Performance
2003
2002
2001
2000
Total Candy & Gum +2.2%
Supermarkets
+3.0
Mass & Wal-Mart
+0.9%
+1.5%
+1.7%
-0.8%
+2.9%
+1.5%
+6.7%
+3.3%
+2.4%
+6.3%
Drug Stores
Convenience
+5.3%
+3.5%
+0.8%
+6.1%
+0.3%
+7.3%
IRI $ Sales as of 12/28/03
+4.4%
+5.5%
Candy & Gum
Retail Performance
2003 Sales Results
Category
52 Week
$ Sales
52 Week
% Change
Chocolate
Non –Chocolate
Gum
$5.5 billion
$3.3 billion
$1.2 billion
+ 1.7%
+1.8%
+5.5%
Total Candy and Gum
$10.0 billion
+2.2%
IRI $ Sales as of 12/28/03 FDM&W
Trade Class 2003 Growth
Channel
$ Sales
% Growth
Supermarkets
$4.3
+3.0%
Convenience Stores
$3.9
+5.5%
Drug Stores
$2.1
+4.4%
Wal-Mart
$2.4
+3.5%
Mass X Wal-Mart
$1.2
-4.4%
Warehouse Clubs
$4.0*
+4.0%
Dollar Stores
$.7*
+7.0%
Seasonal
Confectionery Trends
2003
2002 2001
2000
1999
1998
VALENTINE’S
-7.6%
+6.5% -0.5%
+4.7%
-2.1%
+7.9%
EASTER
+2.2% -2.2%
HALLOWEEN
+0.7%
CHRISTMAS
-1.4%
* IRI FD&M
-2.4%
+11.0% -0.1%
+10.5%
-0.4% +0.2%
+4.7%
+6.1%
+4.6%
-3.0%
+1.7%
-0.8%
-2.9%
+0.7%
Candy & Gum
Retail Performance
2003 Sales Results 12/28/03
Confectionery
Chocolate
Everyday Sales
Seasonal Sales
Non-Chocolate
Everyday Sales
Seasonal Sales
Breath Fresheners
Gum
IRI $ Sales as of 12/28/03 FDM&W
+2.2%
+1.7%
+4.3%
-2.7%
+5.1%
+5.1%
-3.2%
-10.6%
+5.5%
Non-Chocolate
Breath Fresheners
2003 -10.6%
2002 -6.8%
2001 -8.6%
*
$91 million
* 3% of Non-Choc
Year
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Non-Choc
Per Capita
9.4
10.2
10.2
10.8
11.3
12.0
12.3
12.2
11.4
11.2
10.0
9.9
Hard Candy
$50 million
Soft/Chewy Candy
$180 million
Chocolate -even
Candy and Gum Ranked 3rd
Among 2003 Food Categories
$ Billions
$0.0
$4.0
$8.0
$12.0
-1.9%
Product Categories
Carbonated Beverages
Milk
Salty Snacks
Cereal
Ice Cream
Cookies
+2.2%
Even%
$7.60
$7.40
$6.80
+1.2%
-3.0%
$15.10
$10.80
-0.2%
Candy& Gum
$16.0
$4.90
+8.5% $4.20
IRI Food, Drug & Mass
Excluding Wal-Mart 12/28/03
Candy and Gum Ranked 1st
Among 2003 Snack Categories
$ Billions
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
Snack Categories
Candy & Gum
+2.2%
Salty Snacks
Even
Cookies
Snack/Granola Bar
Dry Fruit
Misc. Snacks
+8.5%
+1.5%
$0.5
$0.5
$8.0
$7.6
$7.4
$4.2
$1.9
+15.9%
+5.6%
IRI Food, Drug & Mass
Excluding Wal-Mart 12/28/03
Candy & Gum
2003 Manufacturer Performance
Domestic Production and Imports
December 31, 2003
$
Lbs.
% Change
Billions
Billions
$16.2
7.1
+5.2%
+3.0%
Chocolate Candy
$9.3
3.4
+6.4%
+1.2%
Non-Chocolate Candy
$5.0
3.0
+4.0%
+5.3%
Gum
$1.9
0.5
+3.6%
+3.2%
Total Confectionery
U.S. Department of Commerce Data
$
Lbs.
Candy & Gum
2003 Manufacturer Performance
Domestic Production Only
December 31, 2003
$
Lbs.
% Change
Billions
Billions
$15.5
6.2
+3.2%
-0.5%
Chocolate Candy
$8.9
3.3
+4.8%
-0.2%
Non-Chocolate Candy
$4.3
2.3
+1.4%
-0.3%
Gum
$1.7
0.4
+1.3%
+0.8%
Total Confectionery
U.S. Department of Commerce Data
$
Lbs.
Non-Chocolate
Import Growth
Year
*2003
2002
Non-Choc.
Retail
Growth %
+1.8%
+0.3%
Non-Choc.
NCA/CMA
Shipments
-0.3%
-5.5%
Non-Choc.
Import
Growth %
+21.3%
+15.2%
Non-Choc
Imports
% of Total
30.1%
26.7%
Non-Choc
Imports %
of US Production
40.1%
33.4%
2001
+0.9%
-1.2%
+10.4%
21.0%
24.4%
2000
+3.2%
-4.3%
+9.9%
19.2%
21.8%
1999
+5.8%
-3.3%
+19.3%
17.1%
19.6%
1998
+6.3%
-1.1%
+17.7%
13.9%
14.9%
1997
+6.7%
+8.8%
+7.6%
11.7%
12.4%
1996
+7.6%
+5.8%
+8.5%
10.7%
11.4%
•2003 Estimates
2002 U.S. Department of Commerce
Confectionery Imports & Exports
Category
Imports
2003 $
Exports
Growth
2003 $
Growth
+23.8%
$725
+10.3%
Chocolate
$633 +28.7%
$357
+2.5%
Non-Chocolate
$844
+21.35
$215
+14.6%
Gum
$159
+24.9%
$63
+26.3%
Confectionery
$1,970
Global Trade Atlas November 2003
Confectionery Imports
Trading Partner
World
Canada
Mexico
UK
Germany
Brazil
Belgium
China
Netherlands
Argentina
Switzerland
Sales in $millions
2003 Shipments
$1,970
$1,002
$250
$111
$67
$62
$61
$47
$42
$40
$36
Growth
+23.8%
+38.7%
+27.2%
- 13.7%
- 3.4%
+68.5%
+19.2%
+15.3%
+18.0%
- 9.8%
+9.8%
January – November 2003
Confectionery Exports
Trading Partner
World
Canada
Mexico
Japan
South Korea
UK
Germany
Philippines
Taiwan
France
China
Sales in $millions
2003 Shipments
$725
$348
$102
$29
$27
$20
$14
$12
$11
$11
$11
Growth
+10.3%
+13.9%
+20.6%
+2.6%
- 4.8%
+58.2%
+29.3%
- 37.0%
+28.7%
+410.6%
+9.9%
January – November 2003