Transcript Slajd 1
WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 POLAND – THE LARGEST ECONOMY IN CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE GDP in 2007 Population in 2007 (%, mln) Hungary Hungary ( 10 mln) 13% 15% ( 8 mln) 34% 16% Czech Republic Austria Czech Republic 38% 12% Austria 15% 57% Poland Poland ( 38 mln) GDP growth in 2007 8% 6,5% 5,8% 6% Poland – high growth potential 4% 3,3% 2% 1,4% Surce: Eurostat 0% Poland Czech Republic Austria Hungary GDP QUARTERLY GROWTH 2005-2007 % 10,0 8,0 5,5 6,0 4,3 6,0 6,3 6,6 7,2 6,4 6,4 4,4 3,2 4,0 2,4 2,0 0,0 I q. 05 II q. III q. IV q. 05 05 05 Surce: Polish Central Statistical Office Iq 06 II q 06 III q IV q 06 06 I q. 07 II q. III q. 07 07 High quarterly growth continues QUARTERLY GROWTH OF INVESTMENTS AND CONSUMPTION 2005-2007 % 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 26,2 20,8 15,9 10,1 18 19,8 16,6 9 6,4 1,2 1,6 1,4 3,9 I q. 05 2,5 2,5 5,4 4,8 II q. III q. IV q. I q 06 II q 05 05 05 06 Individual consumption Source: Polish Central Statistical Office 5,6 5,1 6,9 5,1 III q IV q 06 06 I q. 07 Investments GDP 5,2 II q. III q. 07 07 Sound base for future growth of Polish economy QUARTERLY GROWTH OF FOREIGN TRADE 25,0 GDP Export Import 23,7 % 22,4 20,0 16,6 15 17,5 14,6 15,0 9,3 11,7 12,8 12,1 10,1 10,0 9,3 10,8 6,5 6,1 5,0 11,6 11,4 6,0 5,5 3,8 0,9 1,1 6,4 6,4 4,4 4,3 3,2 2,4 7,2 6,6 6,3 1,5 III q. 07 II q. 07 I q. 07 IV q 06 III q 06 II q 06 I q 06 IV q. 05 III q. 05 II q. 05 I q. 05 0,0 Declaining contribution of foreign trade balance to GDP INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND RETAILED SALES DYNAMICS % 20,0 18,0 16,0 17,7 16,3 15,4 16,9 16,3 16,1 14,0 13,6 12,6 13,0 12,0 14,3 13,4 12,2 11,3 10,8 10,4 10,0 8,9 10,8 8,5 8,1 8,0 15,9 15,1 15,0 8,1 6,4 6,0 5,6 5,4 4,0 Industrial production Retail salls 2,0 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 0,0 Strong trend of production and retailed sales continues INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE IN POLAND 20 % Inflation rate Reference rate 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 Surce: Polish Central Statistical Office 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Increasing inflationary pressure 2,0 Surce: European Central Bank Jan-08 Oct-07 Jul-07 Apr-07 Jan-07 Oct-06 Jul-06 Apr-06 Jan-06 Oct-05 Jul-05 Apr-05 4,5 Jan-05 Oct-04 Jul-04 Apr-04 3,0 Jan-04 Oct-03 Jul-03 Apr-03 Jan-03 EUR/PLN, USD/PLN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 5,0 EUR/PLN 4,0 3,5 USD/PLN 2,5 Strenghtening Polish currency after entering EU EUROPEAN LABOUR FORCE RATING* Rank Country Rating 1 Poland +6 2 Denmark +2 3 Slovenia +2 4 Switzerland +2 5 United Kingdom +2 • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. • Poland ranked 1st among 31 European countries * By Federation of European Employers Rating based on 15 factors relating to: Labour supply Human capital Employee relations Inflationary pressures Labour flexibility Rating provides assessment of HR based investment risk for foreign companies investing in another country INDICES PERFORMANCE IN 2003 -2008 350 300 WIG20 250 NASDAQ 200 150 FTSE 100 DJIA 100 Jan-08 Sep-07 May-07 Jan-07 Sep-06 May-06 Jan-06 Sep-05 May-05 Jan-05 Sep-04 May-04 Jan-04 Sep-03 May-03 Jan-03 50 Strong index WIG20 performance starting from 2005 WSE MARKETS GPW WSE Non-regulated market WSE Main List (regulated market) 28 Powielanie bądź publikowanie niniejszego opracowania lub jakiejkolwiek jego części lub rozpowszechnianie w inny sposób informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu wymaga uprzedniej pisemnej zgody GPW w Warszawie SA ACCESS TO THE WSE PUBLIC OFFER PROSPECTUS MEMORANDUM • Financial requirements • Financial statements together with auditor’s opinions for at least past three consecutive financial years • 6-9 months lasting procedure PRIVATE PLACEMENT INFORMATION DOCUMENT • No financial requirements • Market accessible for start-ups • App. 3 months lasting procedure WSE INDEX FAMILY 13 2007 - NEW COMPANIES 105 IPOs, including 24 in NewConnect market and 12 foreign companies Record high value of offerings: above PLN 18.3 bn (EUR 5.05.bn) (Main market and NewConnect market) Immoeast – the largest ever public offering at WSE worth PLN 10.7 bn (EUR 3 bn) Silvano Fashion Group – first Estonian company listed at WSE; additionally at WSE their IPOs had first companies from Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Sweden LC Corp – the largest ever public offering of a private company (PLN 1.06 bn) Kernel Holding – the second Ukrainian company at WSE; the offering worth above PLN 500 M UniCredit – a company with the highest capitalisation at WSE – approx. PLN 270 bn, i.e. almost the same value as the value of all foreign companies listed at WSE (approx. PLN 300 bn) 14 2008 - NEW COMPANIES ON WSE MAIN LIST Company Date of debut Issue price or reference price) (in PLN) Closing price on the day of debut (PLN) Value of IPO (PLN) Atlas Estates 12.02.08 14,32 16,00 0,00 Optopol Technology 19,.02.08 20,00 26,81 66 000 000,00 ZM Herman 28.02.08 1,80 1,91 1 905 249,60 Skyline Investment 18.03.08 9,00 18 000 000,00 15 2008 - NEW COMPANIES ON NEWCONNECT Company Date of debut Value of new issue (PLN) Cost (PLN) (%) 1 Alumast 2008-01-03 2 434 600,00 130 700,00 5,37 2 Polman 2008-01-10 2 985 680,00 240 026,00 8,04 3 Grupa Pactor-Potempa Inkasso S.A. 2008-01-18 2 550 000,00 83 000,00 3,25 4 Euro Consulting & Management S.A. 2008-01-24 9 767 230,00 734 097,93 7,52 5 Rodan Systems 2008-01-28 4 725 182,00 196 302,49 4,15 6 Organic Farma Zdrowia 2008-01-30 10 712 135,20 541 398,38 5,05 7 Blue Tax Group 2008-02-06 4 000 000,00 440 000,00 11,00 8 VENO 2008-02-07 0,00 9 EPIGON 2008-02-13 0,00 10 KRYNICKI RECYKLING 2008-02-14 4 000 046,60 246 891,00 6,17 11 MAXIPIZZA 2008-02-21 0,00 12 ATON-HT 2008-02-29 8 850 000,00 377 500,00 4,26 13 EUROIMPLANT 2008-03-18 11 100 016,00 806 000,00 7,26 TOTAL 62 258 218,80 16 WSE PREFORMANCE – 2007 vs 2006 2007 2006 Change WIG 20 index 3,456 3,286 5.2% 2,873 WIG Index 55,649 50,412 10.4% 46,397 No. of listed companies 351 284 23.6% 353 No. Of IPOs 81 38 113.2% 4 Market capitalisation (domestic companies) (PLNbn) 509.9 437.7 16.5% 414.2 Market capitalisation (total)(PLNbn) 1,080.2 635.9 69.9% 887.5 479.5 320.3 49.7% 83.2 Value of traded shares (PLNbn) Mar 27, 2008 17 INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (1) COMPANY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN SECTOR BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT AG (2003) AUSTRIA BANKING BMP AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (2004) GERMANY NEW TECHNOLOGY/IT MOL (2004) HUNGARY CHEMICAL AMREST HOLDING NV. (2005) NETHERLANDS OTHER SERVICES (Pizza Hut, KFC Restaurants) SKYEUROPE AG(2005) AUSTRIA OTHER SERVICES (airlines) ASTARTA (August 2006) UKRAINE / NETHERLANDS AGRICULTURE/FOOD ASSECO SLOVAKIA (October 2006) SLOVAKIA NEW TECHNOLOGY/IT CEZ (October 2006) CZECH REPUBLIC OTHER SERVICES (energy production) CINEMA CITY (December 2006) NETHERLANDS MEDIA CENTRAL EUROPEAN DISTRIBUTION CORPORATION (December 2006) USA TRADE/WHOLESALE/RETAIL PEGAS NONWOVENS (December 2006) CZECH REPUBLIC CHEMICAL 18 INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (2) COMPANY WARIMPEX (January 2007) COUNTRY OF ORIGIN AUSTRIA SECTOR CONSTRUCTION IMMOEAST (May 2007) AUSTRIA FINANCE OTHER ACE (June 2007) SPAIN/LUXEMBOURG METAL ORCO PROPERTY GROUP (June 2007) LUXEMBOURG CONSTRUCTION AS SILVANO FASHION GROUP (July 2007) ESTONIA LIGHT INDUSTRY OLYMPIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP (September 2007) ESTONIA OTHER SERVICES (casino operator) Plaza Center N.V. (October 2007) NETHERLANDS DEVELOPERS /SHOPPING AND ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS/ ASBIS (October 2007) /MOVE FROM AIM/ CYPRUS RONSON (November 2007) ISRAEL / NETHERLANDS IT /COMPUTER EQUIPMENT DISTRIBUTOR/ DEVELOPERS KERNEL (November 2007) UKRAINE/LUXEMBOURG FOOD REINHOLD POLSKA (December 2007) SWEDEN DEVELOPERS UNICREDIT (December 2007) ITALY BANKING 19 INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (3) COMPANY ATLAS ESTATES (February 2008) COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CHANNEL ISLANDS SECTOR DEVELOPERS 20 IN THE PIPELINE COMPANY CYFROWY POLSAT GAMET /FSA in Luxembourg/ DATE OF PROSPECTUS APPROVAL BY KNF January 2008 November 2007 HARDEX January 2008 HARPER HYGIENICS January 2008 HOOPLA.PL September 2007 K2 INTERNET January 2008 KROSGLASS December 2007 POWER MEDIA February 2008 PRO-BUD December 2007 UNIBEP February 2008 VOBIS February 2008 WOJTAS February 2008 21 WSE SECTOR INDICATORS, as of March 27, 2008 (1) Name Number of companies Market value (PLN m.) Share in market P/BV P/E Industry 1 Food 21 15 023.38 1.65 3.21 15.5 2 Light Industry 12 2 178.80 0.24 1.78 63 3 Wood & Paper 8 5 879.42 0.65 2.32 12.9 4 Chemicals 20 16 680.57 1.84 1.88 10.1 5 Oil & Gas 6 80 300.16 8.84 1.37 10.1 6 Building materials 15 7 535.90 0.83 2.79 24.8 7 Construction 30 20 900.93 2.30 4.04 34.7 8 Electroengineering 26 9 806.69 1.08 1.90 11 9 Metals 19 31 139.71 3.43 2.22 6.8 10 Industry - others 4 532.77 0.06 1.39 190.9 22 WSE SECTOR INDICATORS, as of March 27, 2008 (2) Name Number of companies Market value (PLN m.) Share in market P/BV P/E Finance 11 Banking 17 468 644.55 51.58 1.79 10.1 12 Insurance 1 1 055.25 0.12 4.08 13.1 13 Developers 17 26 193.27 2.88 1.84 8.3 14 Finance - others 24 22 210.23 2.44 0.70 8.8 Services 15 Retails 23 15 544.93 1.71 4.57 26.8 16 Wholesale 28 12 725.83 1.40 2.36 19.4 17 IT 32 11 368.72 1.25 1.84 18.1 18 Telecom 7 33 923.84 3.73 1.68 16.3 19 Media 14 14 381.13 1.58 3.53 26.9 20 Energetics 5 104 172.37 11.47 4.29 18.1 21 Hotels & Restaurants 7 6 133.07 0.68 2.17 20.7 22 Services - others 14 2 181.46 0.24 2.26 x 23 Number of companies Te IT le co m H ot M el e E s d & ner ia R g S es etic er ta s vi u ce ra s nt -o s th er s Li gh Fo W t In od o o du d st & ry P C ap he e m r B ic O ui al ld il s in & g G m as a E Co ter le n ct st ials ro ru en ct gi ion ne er In i du M ng st e ry ta - o ls th e B rs an I n k in su g ra Fi De v nc na e e n c lo p e e - o rs th er R s W e ta h o ils le sa le WSE MAIN LIST COMPANIES – SECTORS AND SHARE IN MARKET CAP Share in market value % 35 60 30 50 25 40 20 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 0 24 LARGEST COMPANIES IN THE REGION LISTED ON THE WSE Company Sector Market value (PLNm) banking 206 481,36 1,38 9,2 energetics 100 142,85 4,34 17,9 P/BV P/E 1 UNICREDIT 2 CEZ 3 BACA banking 96 975,24 1,74 7,9 4 PEKAO banking 43 247,27 2,97 20 5 PKOBP banking 39 080,00 3,28 13,5 6 TPSA telecom 30 414,14 1,71 13,4 7 MOL oil&gas 29 941,41 2,67 8,3 8 PGNIG oil&gas 26 845,00 1,26 21,5 9 KGHM metal industry 19 100,00 2,02 4,8 10 IMMOEAST other financial 16 518,06 0,58 7,1 11 PKNORLEN oil&gas 15 264,94 0,77 6,6 12 LOTOS oil&gas 3 582,69 0,62 4,7 25 Robert Kwiatkowski, Tel: +48 22 537 70 98, [email protected], CEE Markets Business Development Department Warsaw Stock Exchange 4 Książęca Str., 00-498 Warsaw Poland 26