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Cariboo Region Moose Allocation Ministry of Environment Nov. 6, 2008 Overview • Current Status of Moose in the Cariboo – Game Management Zones – Moose Population Estimates – Moose Harvest Estimates • Moose Harvest Management – Management Objectives 2009-2011 – Moose Population Model – Annual Allowable Harvest • Harvest Allocation – Harvest Allocation Policy – Current Annual Allocation • Next Steps Current status of Moose in the Cariboo Game Management Zones (GMZ’s) • GMZ’s are amalgamations of wildlife management units (WMU’s) which share similar ecological characteristics and hunter harvest patterns • GMZ’s provide the basic geographic area for assessing moose populations and developing and implementing harvest strategies • Hunting regulations are set by WMU • The Cariboo region is divided into 5 GMZ’s and 16 WMU’s GMZ’s and WMU’s in the Cariboo Name WMU’s Area (km2) 5A Quesnel Highland 5-15, 5-16 10,758 5B Cariboo 5-01, 5-02 16,535 5C North Chilcotin 5-10, 5-12 to 5-14 32,093 5D South Chilcotin 5-03 to 5-06 24,543 5E Central Coast 5-07 to 5-09 & 511 32,609 GMZ Moose Population Estimates • Population estimates are made for each Game Management Zone (GMZ) • Population estimates are from Stratified Random Block surveys (SRB), supplemented with Composition Surveys and Historic Harvest Data • Survey results are extrapolated to estimate moose numbers in each GMZ Moose Surveys Number of Random Stratified Block Surveys completed by year in the Cariboo Region Number of Surveys 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Year 2004 2006 2008 Example: 5-13C Kluskus (2008) • SRB Survey conducted in Jan and Feb 2008 • Survey area was 4,008 km2 divided into 293 16 km2 blocks • 91 blocks or 31% of area surveyed by helicopter • Stratification required 31 hours of fixed- wing time and cost $10,421.13 • Helicopter survey time totaled 67 hours and cost $64,667.50 • With contractor costs the total survey cost exceeded $111,000 5-13C Kluskus Survey Results • Observed Moose Density: 36 Moose per 100 km2 • Corrected Moose Density: 49 Moose per 100km2 up from 37 in 1997 • Estimated Bull/Cow ratio: 35 Bulls/100 Cows • Estimate Calf/Cow ratio: 31 Calves/100 Cows • GMZ 5C Population Estimate: – 30,088 km2 suitable moose habitat – GMZ 5C estimated moose density: 0.44 moose/km2 – Total estimate = 13,193 moose • 2,777 bulls • 7,276 cows • 3,140 calves Moose Population Estimates by GMZ Game Management Zone Moose Estimate Bulls Cows Calves 5A –Quesnel 1525 448 945 132* 5B –Cariboo 6727 1410 3721 1596 5C –North 13,193 2,777 7,276 3,140 5,945 1,393 3,211 1,341 Highlands Chilcotin 5D –South Chilcotin * GMZ 5A calf/cow ratio well below required ratio for population growth Moose Population Estimates: 2004 and 2008 Game Management Zone GMZ 5A 2004 2008 % Change 2,850* 1,525 - 46% GMZ 5B 6,650 6,727 + 1% GMZ 5C 11,225 13,193 + 18% GMZ 5D 5,300 5,945 +12% *2004 GMZ 5A pop. Est. not based on SRB surveys Moose Harvest Estimates for R5 Cariboo Region Non-First Nations Estimated Moose Harvest 1991-2007 Estimated Harvest 3000 Partial LEH introduced 2500 Full LEH 2000 Resident 1500 Non-Resident 1000 500 0 91 9 92 9 93 9 94 9 95 9 96 9 97 9 98 9 99 0 00 0 01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year Moose Harvest by GMZ, 2004-08 Total Moose Harvest (resident and non-resident) by GMZ GMZ 5A GMZ 5B GMZ 5C GMZ 5D Harvested Moose 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2003 2004 2005 Year 2006 2007 Moose Harvest Management Management Objectives: 2009-11 • Manage for bull/cow ratios above 30 bulls/100 cows • Manage for densities above 40 moose/100 km2 in MU’s 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 13, 14 • Manage moose numbers in conjunction with caribou recovery efforts within MU’s 6, 10, 11, 12 & 15 • Ensure FN harvest needs are addressed • Provide a resident hunter success rate of less than 25 days per harvested moose Moose Population Model • Model forecasts the status of each GMZ population through the allocation period • Incorporates estimates of population size, bull/cow and calf/cow ratios, natural mortality rates, and historic harvests; as well as uncertainty of all estimates. • Allows us to assess the consequences of different harvest levels relative to objectives, and to examine trade-offs • Used to calculate the Annual Allowable Harvest (AAH) Steps to Determine the AAH 1. Assemble biological data by GMZ and estimate moose population size 2. Construct moose population model 3. Use model to assess consequences to moose population health under different harvest levels. 4. Use the model to estimate the AAH that best achieves management objectives 5. Discuss modeling results with First Nations, resident hunters and guide-outfitters 6. Determine final AAH Preliminary Estimates of AAH by GMZ • GMZ 5A – Reduce AAH by 20% – Wolf predation has reduced calf/cow ratio well below recommended minimums for population growth – Maintaining current AAH has high likelihood of reducing bull/cow ratios below 30/100 • GMZ 5B, 5C, 5D – maintain current AAH – should maintain stable to increasing moose populations Harvest Allocation Harvest Allocation Process • • Harvest allocations are determined on a regional basis by the Regional Manager Priorities of allocation: 1. 2. 3. 4. • Conservation First Nation sustenance harvest Resident harvest Non-resident harvest Harvest Allocation Policy determines harvest share between residents and non-residents Current Annual Allocation (2004-2008) • First Nations sustenance 946 moose – Need updated FN tradition use data • Resident hunters (LEH) • Non-res. hunters (quotas) • Total 1070 bulls 260 bulls 2276 moose (total harvest is approximately 9% of population) Request for Harvest Information from First Nations – Estimate of current and expected annual harvest over next 3 years – The proportion of harvest made up of bulls, cows and calves – Location of harvest by Management Unit Next Steps • Complete consultation with FN and update sustenance needs • Update population modeling and develop final AAH • Undertake allocation between users according to allocation policy • Determine specific guide outfitter quotas • Process must be completed by the end of March, 2009 GMZ 5A Resident Hunter Sucess Rate 2000-2007 0.38 0.36 Success Rate 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 GMZ 5B Resident Hunter Success 2000-2007 0.7 Success Rate 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 GMZ 5C Resident Hunter Success 2000-2007 0.5 0.45 Success Rate 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 GMZ 5D Resident Hunter Success 2000-2007 0.5 0.45 Success Rate 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008