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post questions on twitter: @cp4trade or mail to [email protected] My 12 Years in Poland 1999 – 2004 2004 – 2006 DWS Mutual Funds, Swedish Trade Council Deutsche Bank Group in Warsaw corporate experience project management experience 2006 - present Apetonic.com Start-Up Incubator entrepreneurial experience POLAND TODAY FUTURE POTENTIAL OF POLAND? IT’S ABOUT PEOPLE! POLAND HAS A LARGE POPULATION 45.4 mln 38 21.2 10.4 9.97 9.59 9.29 Source: wolframalpha.com, own materials 7.5 5.41 3.26 2.24 2.03 1.34 LARGE POPULATION MEANS MORE HUMAN CAPITAL… 2004 2009 2,149,998 2,044,298 1,098,188 685,718 422,177 397,679 68,399 65,659 Estonia 127,656 125,360 Latvia 210,744 182,656 234,997 164,667 Lithuania Slovakia Hungary Source: Eurostat: Total Students at Universities & Higher Education Institutions 428,642 416,847 318,858 422,580 Czech Sweden Romania Republic Poland …AND MORE HUMAN CAPITAL MEANS MORE PEOPLE GET SPECIALIZED 500000 400000 91 825 Computing Engineering, manufacturing and construction 300000 Science and mathematics 200000 279,228 100000 89,818 15 446 68 646 21 996 Poland Sweden 0 Source: Eurostat; 2009 Figures …SO THE FUTURE LOOKS NOT BAD 18 Poland 16 Sweden 14 12 10 8 Growth of Graduates in Science & Technology per 1 000 of population aged 20-29 years 6 4 2 0 2000 Source: Eurostat 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 IT’S ABOUT INFRASTRUCTURE! THERE ARE 5 CITIES WITH MORE THAN 500 000 PEOPLE Baltic Sea Lithuania Gdańsk 456 000 Szczecin 409 000 Germany Bydgoszcz 362 000 Poznan 564 000 Wrocław 634 000 Belarus Warsaw 1,72 mln Łódź 740 000 Katowice 313 000 Lublin 353 000 Kraków 756 000 Czech Republic Source: wolframalpha.com, own matetrials Slovakia Ukraine …WHERE HUMAN CAPITAL IS AVAILABLE • Gdańsk University of Technology Gdańsk Szczecin Bydgoszcz • Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics & Mechanics at Warsaw University Poznan Warsaw • Warsaw University of Technology Łódź Wrocław • Wrocław University of Technology Lublin Gliwice Katowice Kraków • AGH University of Technology & Science • Cracow University of Technology • Silesian University of Technology Source: http://www.webometrics.info/rank_by_country.asp?country=pl Best-Ranked Universities in Warsaw & Kraków DISTANCES ARE SMALL 689 km Baltic Sea Lithuania Gdańsk Szczecin Bydgoszcz Poznan 649 km Germany Belarus Warsaw Łódź Wrocław Lublin ca. 95 km Katowice Ukraine Kraków Czech Republic Slovakia Source: wolframalpha.com, own matetrials …HOWEVER, ROADS TODAY ARE IN BAD SHAPE Baltic Sea Lithuania Belarus Germany Existing Under construction Ukraine Planned Czech Republic Slovakia Source: Wikipedia BUSINESS & INDUSTRY CONCENTRATED AROUND BIGGEST CITIES Baltic Sea Lithuania Gdańsk Yacht cluster High Tech Szczecin Timber Food Bydgoszcz Germany Poznan Dairy Warsaw Logistics BPO High Tech Łódź High Tech Wrocław Belarus BPO Textile Construction BPO Katowice High Tech Kraków BPO Ecological Lublin food BPO Aviation Glass Founding Czech Republic Slovakia Ukraine IT’S ABOUT PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION! LARGE CONSUMPTION KEEPS THE ENGINE RUNNING WHEN IT’S COLD OUTSIDE… 2009 Real GDP Growth Rate 8.00 2010 6.10 2011 5.60 4.50 4.00 4.20 2.90 2.30 1.40 3.90 4.00 2.70 1.80 1.60 -0.30 -5.20 -14.80 -4.90 -4.20 -14.30 -17.70 Latvia Lithuania Estonia Source: Eurostat - Real GDP Growth Rate - Percentage change on previous year Sweden Slovakia Czech Republic Poland BUYING POWER IS GROWING Poland Sweden 30 300 + 10,6% 27 400 Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) per Inhabitant 15 300 + 39,1% 11 000 2004 Source: Eurostat. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LOW EMPLOYMENT COSTS KEEP COMPANIES COMPETITIVE Poland Sweden 296.70 kr 276.92 kr Hourly Labour Cost in Industry 60.41 kr 42.23 kr 2004 2005 2006 Source: Eurostat: Industry and services (except public administration and community services; activities of households and extra-territorial organizations) 1 EUR = 8,91 SEK (2012-03-06) 2007 DAILY LIFE STILL IS CHEAPER THAN IN WESTERN COUNTRIES Poland Sweden HOWEVER, SUCCESS IS NOT ONLY ABOUT LOW PRICES 3.7 2008 3.61 Gross Domestic Spending on R&D as % of GDP 3.42 Sweden 0.790.830.79 0.680.74 Poland 2010 1.62 1.43 1.28 1.56 1.411.48 0.6 2009 0.63 0.470.48 Czech Republic Slovakia 0.62 0.60 0.46 Estonia Latvia Lithuania „Investment in R&D is low….as a result of insufficient linkages between firms and universities, and the relatively limited technological content of the industrial specialization.” Source: Eurostat, OECD: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/5/28/44904949.pdf WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES? 4 REGIONS GENERATE 71% OF POLAND’S GDP Baltic Sea Contribution to GDP Lithuania Gdańsk 71.20% Szczecin % of total population Bydgoszcz Germany Belarus Poznan Warsaw 64% 24,21 mln Łódź Wrocław Lublin % of all students Katowice Kraków Ukraine 69,9% 1,3 mln Czech Republic Slovakia MAZOWIECKIE REGION - WARSAW The Growth Engine Contribution to GDP Mazowieckie Region Baltic Sea 21,5% Lithuania % of total population Belarus 13.7% Germany Ukraine % of all students Czech Republic Slovakia MOST IMPORTANT SECTORS BPO, Construction, Food Source: www.paiz.gov.pl 18.3% % of higher education institutions 23.6% ŚLĄSKIE REGION – KATOWICE Most Urbanized Contribution to GDP Śląskie Region Baltic Sea 13,2% Lithuania % of total population Belarus 12.2% Germany Ukraine % of all students % of higher education institutions Czech Republic Slovakia MOST IMPORTANT SECTORS Automotive, BPO, High-Tech 9.4% 9.9% WIELKOPOLSKIE REGION - POZNAŃ Transport Hub: West to East Contribution to GDP Wielkopolskie Region Baltic Sea 9,3% Lithuania % of total population Belarus 9.0% Germany Ukraine % of all students % of higher education institutions Czech Republic 9.3% Slovakia MOST IMPORTANT SECTORS Automotive, BPO, Logistics 8.6% DOLNOŚLĄSKIE REGION – WROCŁAW European Capital of Culture in 2016 Contribution to GDP Dolnośląskie Region Baltic Sea 8,1% Lithuania % of total population Belarus 7.6% Germany Ukraine % of all students Czech Republic Slovakia MOST IMPORTANT SECTORS Automotive, Electro-Mechanical, High-Tech 8.9% % of higher education institutions 8.4% MAŁOPOLSKIE REGION – KRAKÓW Cultural, Historical & Educational Center Contribution to GDP Małopolskie Region Baltic Sea 7,4% Lithuania % of total population Belarus 8.7% Germany Ukraine % of all students Czech Republic 11.2% Slovakia MOST IMPORTANT SECTORS Automotive, High-Tech, BPO, Tourism % of higher education institutions 7.3% ŁÓDZKIE REGION – ŁÓDŹ Textile & Energy Contribution to GDP Łódzkie Region Baltic Sea 6,2% Lithuania % of total population Belarus 6.7% Germany Ukraine % of all students % of higher education institutions Czech Republic Slovakia MOST IMPORTANT SECTORS Energy, Textile 7.4% 6.8% POMORSKIE REGION – GDAŃSK Poland’s Largest Sea Port Contribution to GDP Pomorskie Region 5,5% Baltic Sea Lithuania % of total population Belarus 5.9% Germany Ukraine % of all students Czech Republic Slovakia MOST IMPORTANT SECTORS High-Tech, Tourism 5.4% % of higher education institutions 6.2% WHAT ABOUT EAST? Lubelskie Region – Lublin Gate to the EAST? Contribution to GDP Lubelskie Region Baltic Sea 3,9% Lithuania % of total population Belarus 5.7% Germany Ukraine % of all students % of higher education institutions Czech Republic Slovakia MOST IMPORTANT SECTORS Food Industry, BPO 5.4% 4.2% Improved Infrastructure is Key!