Transcript Document

NAME: STATUS AND PLANS
4th NAME Science Working Group Meeting
January 9-10, 2003
NAME Homepage:
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name
OUTLINE
1.
OVERVIEW
• What is NAME?
• Balance of Activities (CLIVAR; GEWEX)
• Timeline
2.
STATUS AND ISSUES
• NAME Project Structure
• NAME Modeling and Diagnostic Studies
• NAME Field Campaign
WHAT IS NAME?
NAME is an internationally coordinated, joint
CLIVAR – GEWEX process study aimed at
determining the sources and limits of
predictability of warm season precipitation
over North America.
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
HYPOTHESIS
Topographic and
Sea-Land Influence
The NAMS provides a physical
basis for determining the degree of
predictability of warm season
precipitation over the region.
Intraseasonal
Variability
Boundary
Forcing?
YEAR (2000+)
Planning
Preparations
Data Collection
Principal Research
Data Management
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
--------------|
--------------|
- - - ----------------|
----------------------------------|
-----------------------------------------|
OBJECTIVES:
Better understanding and
simulation of:
• warm season convective
processes in complex terrain
(TIER I);
• intraseasonal variability of
the monsoon (TIER II);
• response of warm season
circulation and precipitation
to slowly varying boundary
conditions (SST, soil
moisture) (TIER III);
• monsoon evolution and
variability (TIER I, II, III).
NAME IMPLEMENTATION
• Empirical and modeling studies that carry
forward the joint PACS/GAPP Warm Season
Precipitation Initiative (2000 onward), and
initiate new elements.
• NAME Field Campaign (JJAS 2004)
including build-up, field, analysis and
modeling phases.
NAME STATUS
• March 2000: NAME is endorsed by the WCRP/CLIVAR Variability of the
American Monsoons (VAMOS) Panel as the North American
Implementation of VAMOS.
• June 2001: The US CLIVAR Pan American Panel formally recommended
that US CLIVAR join with US GEWEX/GAPP and VAMOS to implement
NAME as a warm season process study of the North American Monsoon.
• May 2002: NAME is included in the GEWEX/GAPP Science and
Implementation plan, with emphasis on topographic influences on
precipitation, hydrology and water resources, and land-surface memory
processes.
• July 2002: NAME is presented to the US CLIVAR SSC, which
unanimously endorsed NAME as a US CLIVAR activity and a Process
Study under the PanAm Panel.
PACS Interest in NAME
•
To obtain a better understanding and more realistic simulation of the NAMS and
its interannual variability (through PACS/GAPP Warm Season Precipitation
Initiative)
•
To improve the observational basis to understand key ocean, atmosphere and land
processes contributing to variability of summer climate (through NAME-2004)
•
To demonstrate that observed connections between the leading patterns of climate
variability (e.g ENSO, MJO) and the continental-scale precipitation pattern are
captured in global and regional models (AMIP and NAMAP are important first
steps)
To advance the development of the climate observing system for North America,
initially in the southwestern US, Mexico and Central America.
•
•
To foster collaborative investigations with assessment researchers to develop new
climate information products for stakeholders (through 2004 AO)
Pan American
Climate Studies
US CLIVAR PAN AMERICAN
PROCESS STUDY TIMELINES
CLIVAR SSC Recommendations
• Scientific
– Ocean Processes – Determine role of oceanic processes (e.g. regulation
of moisture supply) in the dynamics of the monsoon. Increase
emphasis on relevant marine data to support monsoon modeling and
the interpretation of continental observations.
– Land Surface Processes – Enhance land surface observations and
modeling including land data assimilation.
– Modeling – Develop cloud modeling strategy to study precipitation
over complex terrain and the behavior of convection over warm
continents, key issues in model development.
– Other Monsoons - Coordinate analysis and modeling activities with
ongoing studies of the South American and Asian monsoons.
Pan American
Climate Studies
NAME RESPONSE TO SSC9 CONCERNS
•
Land Surface Processes:
– Soil Moisture Field Campaign (NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program)
– NAME Hydrometeorology Working Group (quarterly newsletter)
•
Modeling:
– NAME modeling-observations team
– NAMAP
•
NAME 2004 Field Campaign:
– Tier 1 Observations
Event logging gauge network (phases 1 and 2 installed)
NSF Overview Document (windprofiler/radar/sounding network) submitted
– Ocean Processes
NOAA Research Vessel Ron Brown / UNAM (PUMA)
2 Buoys in Central GOC
– NAME Roadshow
•
Other Monsoons:
– NAME-CEOP linkage
– NAME-MESA linkage
NAME MEETINGS
NAME SWG-1 Meeting, IRI, Palisades NY (Oct. 2000)
NAME SWG-2 Meeting, SIO, La Jolla, CA (Oct. 2001)
NAME Workshop at VPM5, San Jose, Costa Rica (Mar. 2002)
NAME SWG-3 Meeting, GMU, Fairfax, VA (Oct. 2002)
NAME SWG-4 Meeting, Boulder, CO (Jan. 2003)
NAME Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability Workshop,
Greenbelt, MD (Mar. 2003)
Ocean Component of NAME Workshop (NW Mexico, Spring 2003)
NAME Tier 1 Observations
PACS NAME Funding Plans
•
Continue Support of NA Warm Season Precipitation Studies
($1.5M annually)
– 23 proposals totaling $2.4M in review; November Panel; DecemberFebruary new starts
•
Support 2004 NAME Field Experiment ($1M during field phase,
$0.5M/year for analysis and modeling)
– Announcement of Opportunity to be issued early December
– Proposals in March
– May-July new starts
•
Work within NOAA to secure required aircraft and ship time
– 66 ship days initially allocated, approx. 50 days on station
Pan American
Climate Studies
GEWEX / GAPP Components
Hydrometerology
Orographic
Systems
Predictability in Land
Surface Processes
Predictability in
Monsoonal Systems
Integration of
Predictability Into
Prediction Systems
Testing of Models in
Special Climate
Regimes
CEOP: Data and
Studies for Model
Development
Use of Predictions for
Water Resource
Management
GAPP - NAME Plan
NAME Contributions to GAPP:
• Fine resolution, gauge-only and satellite/gauge merged
precipitation products (e.g. for LDAS, Regional
Reanalysis and model validation studies);
• The role of land in the onset and intensity of the
monsoon;
• The role of NAMS in the variability of the water budget
components over the US and Mexico;
• Improved understanding of summer orographic
precipitation processes.
GAPP - NAME Plan
GAPP Contributions to NAME:
• Improved land surface models and coupled landatmosphere models
• LDAS in Tiers 1 and 2
• CEOP
• Regional Reanalysis
• Studies of rainfall-runoff relations
• Precipitation dataset
• Linkage with operations thru NOAA Core Project
NAME IMPLEMENTATION PRIORITIES
ISSUE:
•
Significant progress has been made in developing implementation plans for
NAME. However, the overall level of agency support is uncertain, and the
relative roles of CLIVAR and GEWEX in NAME must be clarified.
QUESTIONS:
•
What are the implications of the delay in the upcoming NAME solicitation?
(e.g. March 2003 proposals and November 2003 starts)?
•
What are the needs of each PI in order to have sufficient time to prepare for
NAME 2004?
•
Are we addressing CLIVAR / GEWEX scientific interests in NAME?
•
How do we develop a strategy for entraining NSF, NASA and DOE PI’s in
NAME?
NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE
• 3-Pronged
– NAME Science Working Group (Science Focus)
– VAMOS / NAME Project Office (Field Implementation,
Data Management, Logistics)
• NAME Forecast Operations Center
– NAME Program Management
NAME SCIENCE WORKING GROUP
• NAME science is managed by a SWG that has been approved
by the CLIVAR/VAMOS and CLIVAR Pan American panels
in consultation with U.S. GEWEX.
• The SWG develops and leads research to achieve NAME
objectives
• The NAME SWG members:
Jorge Amador, Univ. of Costa Rica
Hugo Berbery, UMD
Rit Carbone, NCAR
Miguel Cortez, SMN
Art Douglas, Creighton Univ.
Michael Douglas, NSSL
Dave Gutzler, UNM
Wayne Higgins, CPC (Chair)
Rene Lobato, IMTA, Mexico
Jose Meitin, NSSL
Chet Ropelewski, IRI
Jae Schemm, CPC
Siegfried Schubert, NASA
Jim Shuttleworth, UAZ
Dave Stensrud, NSSL
Chidong Zhang, RSMAS
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name
[Leaders: E. Pytlak (NWS); M. Cortez (SMN)]
[Leaders: E. Pytlak (NWS); M. Cortez (SMN)]
NAME COORDINATION
ISSUE:
•
The NAME Project structure is 3-pronged (SWG, NAME Project Office,
Agencies). Interactions between each component of NAME must be improved.
Linkages to operational meteorology in the U.S. and Mexico, and to the broader
community need to be identified and developed.
QUESTIONS:
•
•
Is the SWG engaging the NAME Project Office and vice-versa?
What does the SWG want the Forecast Operations Center to do during NAME
2004 and beyond?
ACTIONS:
•
•
Draft NAME 2004 Timeline;
Draft NAME Data Management Plan;
NAME AND MEXICO’S PARTICIPATION
ISSUE:
•
NAME would like to encourage Mexican participation beyond that during
SWAMP-90 and SWAMP/EMVER-93.
QUESTIONS:
•
How do we increase the circle of influence in Mexico beyond those already
involved in NAME (e.g. operational meteorologists with the Air Force, Navy,
Electricity Commission, PEMEX, and Civil Aviation)?
• What can NAME do that Mexico will sustain after the field phase?
ACTIONS:
• Organize team and develop strawman for NAME Roadshow
NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES
GOALS:
• Provide guidance on needs and priorities for NAME 2004 field
observations.
• Identify sustained observational requirements for climate models.
• Identify additional process studies necessary to reduce uncertainties in
climate models.
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
ASSESSMENT PROJECT (NAMAP)
STRATEGY:
• NAMAP Phase I (D. Gutzler, Chair)
– Document ability of models (GCM’s; RMM’s) to simulate NAMS (JJAS 1990).
– Protocols (domain, boundary conditions, output format, simulated variables) defined
by the modeling community during 2001.
– Hosted by the NAME Project Office at UCAR/JOSS:
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/namip
•
NAMAP is currently unfunded and voluntary. Current Participants:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Liang (MM5, WRF)
Mo (RSM)
Mitchell / Yang (ETA)
Kanamitsu (ECPC/RSM)
Fox Rabinovitz (NASA Hybrid)
Hahmann (MM5)
Castro / Pielke (RAMS)
• Results are in progress.
Schemm (NCEP MRF)
Schubert (NASA NSIPP)
Liz Ritchie / Dave Gutzler (MM5)
Peter Fawcett
NAME MODELING-OBS WORKSHOP
GOAL:
•
Refine specific research objectives and plans / priorities of the team.
QUESTIONS:
•
•
•
•
•
PROGRAMMATIC:
How can the teams best contribute to NAME 2004 planning efforts?
How can the team leverage off of existing modeling, data assimilation and
predictability activities?
SCIENTIFIC:
What are the land processes that should guide the modeling approach?
How sensitive is lateral forcing of the North American monsoon by the Eastern
Pacific ITCZ?
How will cloud resolving models help with the large-scale environment that is
critical for promoting convection?
NAME MODELING-OBS TEAM
<emphasis>
 Develop the research strategy consistent with NAME Objectives
<diurnal cycle of convection in complex coastal terrain>
 Define how the team will complement on-going modeling
 regional mesoscale models <explicit convection, mesoscale
observations of surges, etc.>
 global models <mean diurnal cycle>
 Contribute to NAME needs for weather/climate
prediction <parameterization of convection, cloud-radiation
interaction, effects of terrain>
Regional Analysis and Data Impact and Prediction
Experiments in support of NAME
Kingtse Mo (CPC), Wayne Higgins (CPC), Fedor Mesinger (UCAR/EMC),
Hugo Berbery (UMD) and Ken Mitchell (EMC)
OBJECTIVES:
1) To provide real time monitoring of NA regional climate with a focus on the hydrologic cycle
during and after the NAME field campaign
Technology transfer of RR and RCDAS to CPC/NCEP
2)
To perform global and regional data assimilation with/without NAME data
Global: CDAS II with and without NAME Data
Regional: RCDAS with and without the NAME data
3)
To perform forecast experiments highlighting NAME data impact
Global: NCEP GFS out to day 45 from CDAS II with / without NAME Data
Regional: Short range forecasts (SREF) with / without the NAME data
GOALS: To improve precipitation forecasts at diurnal/daily time scales (e.g. QPF); to improve
climate forecasts of droughts / floods.
IMPROVING THE NCEP-NAME LINKAGE
(1) Linkage to operational meteorology / NCEP Centers
-
Involve operational (NWS) meteorologists (NAME SWG; NAME FO);
NAME-related exchange visits between NWS and SMN;
Postdocs from Mexican SMN at NCEP during NAME 2004, to work with HPC
forecasters and EMC data assimilation experts;
Involve EMC personnel (e.g. physical parameterization experts) in NAME
Modeling-Obs Teams (specific needs in GFS, ETA).
(2) Quantifyable Goals
-
Develop year-by-year performance metrics that are directly relevant to NCEP
Centers (HPC, CPC).
Need for different types of metrics
NAME 2004 Field Experiment
NAME Modeling - Improved warm season precipitation prediction
- Short term goal: diurnal/daily timescales (e.g. QPF)
- Long term goal: monthly/seasonal time scales (e.g. RPSS)
SUMMARY OF NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES
Focus
Model-Obs Team
diurnal cycle
NAMAP
1990 monsoon
In progress; unfunded
Gutzler
Subseasonal Variability
Model uncertainties
To be proposed – NASA
Schubert
Regional CDAS and
NAME Data Impact
NAME data assimilation
Forecast experiment
To be proposed - OGP
Mo / Higgins / Berbery
Vegetation modeling
Vegetation impact on
prediction
Funded - OGP
Shuttleworth/Liu
Moisture budget of IAS
Moisture sources for the GP
Funded - OGP
Zhang/Albrecht/Enfield
Moisture budget of Tiers
1-3
Moisture surges in the Gulf
of California
Funded - OGP
Higgins/Yang
Daily precipitation
analysis (US_Mexico)
Real-time monitoring
Funded - OGP
Higgins/Shi
Diurnal cycle and
Precipitation
Linkage to TRMM/GPM
Funded - OGP
Arkin/Xie
Hydrologic predictability
LDAS in Tiers 1 &2
Role of land surface
Funded - OGP
Lettenmaier/Cavasos
Surface runoff
Structures of precipitation
Funded - OGP
Shuttleworth/Gochis
blue: funded before SWG-3; red: funded since SWG-3
Status
PI’s
Activity
Schubert/Moncrief
NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN
Enhanced
Precipitation
Gauge Network
R.V. Ron Brown
Radiosondes/PIBALS
Radar/Profiling/Radiosondes
SUMMARY OF NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN OBSERVATIONS
Platform / Data
Plan
Status
Contact
Raingauges (event)
See map
Funded - OGP
Shuttleworth/Watts
Raingauges (simple)
See map
To be proposed - OGP
Lobato/Higgins
Radiosondes (Mexico)
See map
To be proposed - OGP
A.Douglas/Cortez
PIBALS/radiosondes
See map
To be proposed - OGP
M.Douglas
Wind profile/radar/
sounding
See map
To be proposed –
OGP/NSF/NASA
Carbone / Johnson /
Moncrieff et al.
Ron Brown (atm)
See map
To be proposed - OGP
Fairall et al.
Ron Brown (ocean), buoy
Upper-ocean structures
To be proposed
Paulson
To be proposed
Magaña
Puma
ASIS buoy
Surface waves and fluxes
To be proposed
Ocampo-Torres
Aircraft (NOAA P-3)
See map
To be proposed - OGP
M. Douglas/Cotton/
Jorgenson
Hydrometeorology
(Mexico, AZ)
Integrated hydrological
network
To be proposed
Gochis et al.
Soil moisture sensors
Aircraft (NASA DC-10)
Remote sensing validation
To be proposed - NASA
Lettenmaier/Jackson/
Shuttleworth
To be proposed
M.Douglas/Watts
Vegetation
Lightning network
See map
To be proposed - NSF
Peterson
GPS humidity
See map
To be proposed
Hahmann
NAME Field Campaign
Observations
1.
Need repeat of previous table, but with estimated
costs and priority (from SWG) for Mike
NAME Tier-1 Objectives
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
How are low-level circulations along the Gulf of California / west
slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental related to the diurnal cycle of
moisture and convection? (low-level circulation)
What is the relationship between moisture transport and rainfall
variability (e.g. forcing of surge events; onset of monsoon details)?
(moisture transport)
What is the typical life cycle of diurnal convective rainfall? Where
along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental is
convective development preferred? (diurnal cycle)
What are the dominant sources of precipitable moisture for monsoon
precipitation over southwestern North America? (moisture sources)
What are the fluxes of energy and water from the land surface to the
atmosphere across the core monsoon region, and how do these
fluxes evolve in time during the warm season? (land surface)
Tier 1 Objective
Project
1. low-level circulation
• PIBALS (M.Douglas)
• Upper-air soundings (A.Douglas)
• radar/wind profiler (Carbone)
• Ron Brown (Fairall), Puma (Magana)
2. Moisture transport
• GOC moisture budget (Higgins)
• sounding networks (M.Douglas/A.Douglas/Carbone)
• NOAA P-3 (M.Douglas; Cotton/Jorgensen)
• GPS (Hahmann)
3. diurnal cycle
• satellite rainfall estimate (Arkin)
• raingauges – event logging(Shuttleworth)
• sounding/radar/profiler/lightning network (Carbone/Douglas/Peterson)
4. moisture sources
• GOC moisture budget (Higgins)
• sounding network (M.Douglas/A.Douglas/Carbone)
• buoys (Ocampo-Torres/Paulson)
• land surface flux?
5. land surface
• surface runoff / streamflow(Shuttleworth)
• vegetation (Shuttleworth/M.Douglas)
• soil moisture (Lettenmaier/Jackson/Shuttleworth)
PIBAL SUPPLEMENT AND REASONS
Douglas et al. (2003)
Precise configuration depends on wind profiler / radar / sounding
network that the PIBALS will support.
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING NETWORK
In Operation
After 2003
Maintenance of the upper-air sounding network (2002)
Operate twice-daily observations (May-Nov) in 8 sites (2002)
Operate all once-daily observation sites at 12 UTC (2002)
Observers training (2002)
Proposed Location of the R/V Ron Brown During NAME IOP
Addressing NAME Tier-1 Science
• Surge origins
• Sources of moisture and transports
• Precipitation statistics including diurnal cycle
• Structure of southern end of GC LLJ
• Surge coupling to easterly waves
• Surface fluxes/Ocean coupling
Figures adapted from Fuller and Stensrud
(MWR, 2000) and Brenner (MWR, 1974)
Potential NAME ALDF network geometry
300 km
= Potential ALDF site
= Current NALDN site
• 5-station Advanced Lightning
Direction Finder (ALDF)
network
• TOA/DF technique,
REQUEST FOR THE NOAA P-3
(M. Douglas, PI)
Objective: To measure moisture influx into the NAME tier 1, esp from southern GOC.
Technique: Repeatable tracks to provide comparisons with in-situ data [ship and
ground-based], model-based analyses and climatology. Frequent profiles (every ~5-6
minutes) between ~100m ASL and 1.5-2 km ASL [50-60 soundings per flight].
Unprecedented spatial resolution across the inflow region at low levels.
Number of flights: ~10 flights / ~7.5h per flight.
Flights need not be flown in sequence.
Same time each day to avoid complications
due to diurnal cycle.
List of flights:
2 enhanced flux flights,
2 suppresed flux flights,
6 "normal" flux flights,
2 Gulf section flights
PHASE 2 Enhancements ‘03
PH 1 Event Raingage
Isotope Collector
PH 2 Event Raingage
SMN Automatic
Met Station
Proposed Radar
Site
NAME Simple Raingauge Network
IMTA
INSTITUTO MEXICANO
DE TECNOLOGÍA DEL AGUA
•The network is sparse in
large portions of the core
and peripheral monsoon
regions
• NAME will install
~1600 gauges in these
regions as a cooperative
network to improve
monitoring, prediction
and assessments.
MOISTURE BUDGET OF THE INTRA AMERICAS SEA
Radiosonde
NCDC Buoys
PACS SONET
Zhang et al 2001
• Estimates of the moisture budget of the IAS region are in progress using this network.
• These estimates will be combined with estimates over the core (and peripheral) monsoon regions
(based on a new network of in situ soundings) to quantify the Q flux-precipitation relationship over the
entire region (inc. U.S.).
Soil Moisture Remote Sensing Field Experiment in NAME
Tucson
Walnut Gulch
Three-dimensional
perspective in the NAME
region looking north from
Hermosillo to Tucson
Field Campaign Elements
 Temporary in-situ soil moisture networks
 Aircraft and satellite mapping
 Intensive sampling concurrent with aircraft mission
Soil Moisture Remote Sensing Field Experiment in NAME
Temporary in situ soil moisture network
• Modeled after the current AMSR Cal/Val project, which involves:
– four watersheds (150-650 km2), with existing data collection
infrastructure, including Walnut Gulch
– observing 5-cm soil moisture and temperature at all sites with
the “Vitel Hydraprobe”
Walnut Gulch Soil Moisture Sites
RG#
• Establish a new site in Mexico using these principles
3
13
14
18
20
28
34
37
40
57
69
70
76
89
92
100
Profile
Sites
46
82
83
Off
Watershed
Sites
400
SP
Easting
(m)
581265
586181
585495
586778
587543
590669
591018
593354
593449
596162
603982
604327
582707
596373
581955
593548
Northing
(m)
3509566
3509986
3506970
3507884
3504739
3509803
3507252
3505864
3510092
3512115
3515260
3514015
3509391
3513731
3511576
3504309
Elev.
(m)
1253
1327
1373
1358
1519
1369
1420
1407
1392
1462
1640
1632
1312
1483
1251
1436
595346
600225
589765
3508470 1440
3511469 1521
3512232 1367
582120
577947
3518828 1266
3503457 1215
Soil Moisture Remote Sensing Field Experiment in NAME
Aircraft and satellite mapping
 NASA P-3B should be available July 15 –August 15, 2004
 Satellite sensors:
AMSR and TMI
 Aircraft sensors:
2DSTAR (L band next generation ESTAR)
PSR or AESMIR (AMSR simulators)
 Aircraft Mission:
 15 flight dates
 5 hours per day
 50x100 km areas
• Walnut Gulch
• Mexican site
 4 flightlines
Soil Moisture Remote Sensing Field Experiment in NAME
Intensive sampling concurrent with an aircraft mission
• Purpose: to calibrate the in situ
sensor network and to fill in the
spatial domain
• Requirements:
– two teams (in Walnut Gulch and
Mexico) with strong partnerships
with local (Arizona and Mexican)
institutions
– a sampling strategy similar to
that developed for previous
NASA Terrestrial Hydrology
Program field studies (e.g.
SMEX02 and SMEX03)
– manual sampling using
Thetaprobes with data loggers
David J. Gochis
Christopher J. Watts
W. James
Shuttleworth
Dennis Lettenmaier
Tereza Cavazos
Jaime GaratuzaPayan
Bart Nijssen
GPS
NAME 2004 FIELD CAMPAIGN
QUESTIONS:
•
•
•
•
•
•
How should we coordinate proposals for NAME 2004? Are resources adequate
to fulfill objectives?
Has the reservation for the Ron Brown been made? What happens if the Ron
Brown is not available? Are there other possible approaches (NAVY? Mexican
research vessel? Chartered ship?)
Has the reservation for the NOAA P-3 been made?
Is there enough emphasis on measurements of multiple variables at one site
(e.g. for getting the surface energy budget defined)? Where are the
representative locations?
What are the missing components in our network (surface flux, ocean, …)?
Are there needs for asset deployment on the U.S. side of the U.S.-Mexico
border?
ACTION ITEMS:
•
•
•
Plan for coordinating proposals
Update budget for NAME observing system
Draft Timeline and Data Management Plan for NAME 2004
Recommendations for 2004 Proposals
•
Prioritize and coordinate projects among PIs
•
Submit to appropriate agencies; diversify funding base
•
Each proposal should:
– Clearly articulate the questions/hypotheses to be evaluated
– Identify connections with other observational projects, particularly for
merged data sets
– Outline planned uses of data sets, giving specifics of analysis/modeling
•
•
•
•
Analysis of phenomena/processes
Satellite observation validation
Model simulation validation
Model process parameterization evaluation, etc.
Pan American
Climate Studies
NAME DELIVERABLES
• Coupled climate models capable of predicting North American
monsoon variability months to seasons in advance;
• Infrastructure to observe and monitor the North American
monsoon system;
• More comprehensive understanding of North American summer
climate variability and predictability;
• Contributions to the assessment of climate variability and longterm climate change in the North American monsoon region;
• Strengthened multinational scientific collaboration across the
Americas.
From Research to Operations
•
Define observing system requirements
–
–
–
–
•
Identify gaps in networks
Implement and evaluate observational enhancements
Verify satellite data sets
Test new technologies (e.g. aerosonde atmospheric profiles)
Evaluate model capabilities
– Compare and validate model simulations and predictions
– Test and evaluate representation of processes within models (with Climate
Process Modeling Teams)
•
Develop new climate products
– Explore opportunities for use of climate information
– Define information products to meet user needs
Pan American
Climate Studies
PERFORMANCE METRICS
(NAME 2004 Field Experiment)
1.
Pre-Field Phase
•
•
•
•
•
2.
Development of contingency, back-up, and flexible observation strategies;
Development of an agreed field management and decision making structure to ensure
implementation of flexible observation strategies;
% of the instrument systems design completed N months before deployment (for each
set of instruments, i.e. raingauges, radars, profilers, sondes);
% of the instrument systems laboratory tested or certified N months before deployment;
% of the instrument systems in place and field tested in the NAME domain by some
date before the start of the field phase.
Field Phase
•
•
•
3.
% of successful observations by instrument system;
% of time (days?) that all observational systems are up and working;
% of observations recorded and sent to NAME archive.
Post-Field Phase
•
•
•
% of data received that is archived and documented;
% of archived data available to NAME community by observational system;
Degree to which observations from various systems are available in compatible
formats.
PERFORMANCE METRICS
(Forecast Skill Scores)
• Develop milestones for new / improved warm season precipitation forecasts,
separate from the NAME 2004 experiment.
• Develop new performance metrics tied to these forecasts:
- comparisons of basic monthly and seasonal means with observations;
- obs-vs-simulated frequency distribution of rainfall intensity;
- quality of ensemble predictions (forecast reliability; freq of extreme events);
- new products (NA forecasts; NA drought monitor; International Hazards)
• Develop “quantitative” future performance goals
• Explicitly tie these to performance measures in operational meteorology
(e.g. NWS HPC and CPC).
- QPF (day 1, day 2, day 3)
- 6-10 day forecast skill (Heidke)
- monthly and seasonal forecast skill
• NAME SWG needs to develop a strategic plan for this. Workshop needed?
PILOT BALLOON NETWORK OBJECTIVES
PIBAL SITE
OBJECTIVE
CLOUD
PROBLEMS?
UNDISTURBED
BY TOPOG?
CO-LOCATED
WITH OTHER
OBS
PRIORITY
Needles, AZ
Heat Low
low
~yes
no
moderate
Ajo, AZ
Heat Low/surge
low
so-so
no
lower
Phoenix, AZ
Heat low
low
~ok
Raob (SRP)
moderate
Mexicali, BC
Heat low / surge
low
~ok
no
moderate
Tucson, AZ
Heat low
low-moderate
so-so
Raob (NWS)
lower
Hermosillo
Heat low /surge
low
~ok
no
moderate
Lordsburg, NM
Heat low
low
so-so
no
moderate
Benjamin Hill
Heat low/surge
low
so-so
no
moderate
P. Libertad
Heat low/surge
low
~ok
no
moderate
P. Penasco
Fluxes/surge/heat
low
low
~ok
yes
high
PILOT BALLOON NETWORK OBJECTIVES
PIBAL SITE
OBJECTIVE
CLOUD
PROBLEMS?
UNDISTURBED
BY TOPOG?
CO-LOCATED
WITH OTHER
OBS
PRIORITY
Cd. Constitucion
Q flux into GOC
moderate
yes
no
high
SJ del Cabo
Q flux into GOC
moderate
~ok
no
high
La Paz
Q flux into GOC
low
~ok
Raob (SMN)
moderate
Isla Socorro
Q flux into GOC
moderate
~ok
Raob (SMN)
high
Topolobampo
Q flux into GOC/
surges
moderate
~ok
no
high
Isla Maria Madre
Q flux into GOC
moderate
so-so
no
high
B. Tortugas
Synoptic gradient
moderate-high
so-so
no
high
Catavina
Synoptic gradient
low-moderate
no
moderate
Isla Guadalupe
Synoptic gradient
moderate-high
no
high
Isla Clarion
Synoptic gradient
moderate-high
no
high
Alpine, TX
Synoptic
gradient/ waves
low-moderate
no
high
PILOT BALLOON NETWORK OBJECTIVES
PIBAL SITE
OBJECTIVE
CLOUD
PROBLEMS?
Torreon
Synoptic
gradient/ waves
Jimenez
UNDISTURBED
BY TOPOG?
CO-LOCATED
WITH OTHER
OBS
PRIORITY
low-moderate
Raob (SMN)
high
Synoptic
gradient/ waves
low-moderate
no
moderate
Ocampo
Synoptic
gradient/ waves
low-moderate
no
moderate
Matahuala
Synoptic
gradient/ waves
low-moderate
no
moderate
Zacatecas
Synoptic
gradient/ waves
Moderate
Raob (SMN)
moderate
Durango
Synoptic
gradient/ waves
Moderate
no
moderate
Acapulco
Trop. Wave spec.
Moderate
Raob (SMN)
moderate
Laz Cardenas
Trop. Wave spec.
Moderate
no
moderate
Chamela
Land-sea breeze
Moderate
Raob (SMN)
Navajoa
Land-sea breeze
Low-Moderate
no
Ouiriego
Land-sea breeze
Moderate
no
CLIVAR SSC Recommendations
• Programmatic
– Develop metrics that quantify how NAME research will impact model
development and prediction capabilities.
– Formulate plans for beyond 2006, including a vision for sustained
observations and for a coordinated observational/ modeling activity
and how it will interact with the Climate Process Teams currently
being developed under US CLIVAR.
– Foster, monitor and evaluate the interaction between regional and
global modeling teams and with the observational activities to
improve models and forecasts.
Pan American
Climate Studies
NAME 2004 FIELD CAMPAIGN
ISSUES:
•
We need to develop a coherent implementation plan for the NAME 2004
observing network that meets NAME’s objectives for improved warm season
precipitation prediction.
•
While emphasis is on the core monsoon region, there must also be emphasis on
data sparse regions in Mexico and surrounding oceans.
•
Resources available to NAME must be sufficient to fill these data voids.
•
It is a major challenge to maintain long-term observations (beyond NAME 2004)
and to anticipate future needs.
•
Future satellite missions relevant to NAME 2004 are not assured (e.g. TRMM)
and data collected now should be more effectively utilized.
INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS
(1) SMN Meteorological Infrastructure
 79 synoptic stations
 16 radiosonde sites
 60 automated weather stations (15 more in 2003)
 12 radars (4 in northwestern Mexico)
•
•
•
Historical and real-time data
Working group during NAME (meteorologists,technicians)
Joint Forecast Office
(2) Universities and Institutions in NW Mexico
(Univ. of Vera Cruz, Univ. of Guadalajara, UNAM, IMTA, CICESE)
• Equipment, personnel, transportation, data collection, research
(3) Central American Collaborative Interests
• Costa Rica-USA (CRUSA) Foundation supports bilateral projects
NAME EDUCATION / TRAINING
(1) Exchange Program between U.S. NWS and Mexican SMN
• Central / South American desk at NCEP
(2) Central American Training Course (M. Douglas)
• Training on climate, weather forecasting and observations
• Designing regional meteorological / climate services
• Workshop held in July 2001 attracted participants from 12 countries
(3) NWS COMET Course on Climate Variability (W. Higgins)
• Available to Mexican / Central American participants in NAME
(4) Central American Collaborative Interests (J. Amador)
• Costa Rica-USA (CRUSA) Foundation supports bilateral projects
(5) Linkages to human dimensions / applications (A. Ray)
ESTIMATED COSTS OF KEY ELEMENTS
•
Planning:
– NAME GCM-observations team: $270K/yr
– NAME MM-observations team: $270K/yr
•
Enhanced Observations:
– NAME EOP: ~$4M + ship + research aircraft*
•
Research Phase:
– Analysis: ~$1M/yr
– Modeling: ~$1M/yr
* Does not include labor, pre-experiment costs for networks, training, education and project
office task support, or post-experiment data management activities.
NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN OBSERVATIONS
Platform / Data
Estimated Cost
SWG Contact
Raingauges (simple)
$340K (3 yrs)
R. Lobato, W. Higgins
Radiosondes
PIBALS / Tethersondes
/Radiosondes
$265K
$130K / $5K
$30K
A.Douglas, M. Cortez,
M. Douglas
M. Douglas
Wind profiler / radar / sounding /
ship
$600K (Profilers), $800K (ISS’s),
$100K (Mex Rad)
$500K (SPOL),TBD (RB)
R. Carbone
Buoys
?
F. Ocampo Torres*
GPS humidity
?
A. Hahmann*
Lightning network
$235K +
W. Petersen*
Aircraft (NOAA P-3;
Powersonde
75-100 hours (NOAA P-3)
$105K
M. Douglas, B. Smull*
Hydrometeorology (Mexico, AZ)
?
D. Gochis, J. Shuttleworth
Soil Moisture
?
D. Lettenmaier, T. Jackson
~4M+aircraft+ship+other ?
GAPP - NAME Plan
A GAPP Warm Season Working Group met in April
2002 (New Orleans) and recommended that the
GAPP-NAME linkage emphasize enhanced
understanding, modeling and predictive capability of
•
•
•
topographic influences on the monsoon
hydrology and water resources
land-surface memory
The Working Group also endorsed the idea of a
NAME Mesoscale Modeling - Observations Team
NAME SOUNDING NETWORK
(Douglas et al.)
OBJECTIVES:
To describe the moisture flux into GOC on synoptic and seasonal time-scales
To relate moisture flux variations (e.g. surges) to variations in precipitation.
COMPONENTS (PURPOSE):
pibal sites (low-mid level winds; diurnal windfield)
tethersondes (low-level moisture profiles at weak-wind locations up to 1.5 km)
radiosonde (limited, non-GPS)
powersonde (frequent over water soundings)
Assumes Carbone et al. network as a given; some redundancy needed
PERIOD:
4 months (May 25th- September 25th)
LAUNCH FREQUENCY:
2x daily at all PIBAL sites (unless a radiosonde is made).
4x daily (July - August) at12Z, 18Z, 00Z, and 06Z.
8x daily during IOP's (4@10 days)
APPROXIMATE COST:
PIBAL (25 sites): ~ $130K; Radiosonde (3 sites): ~$30K; Tethered balloon (2 sites): ~$4K
Powersonde (5 planes each at 3 sites): $105K