Transcript Slide 1
Shipping and Carbon Footprint, methodolgy to for developing a fair and descent system Haakon Lindstad Marintek, Trondheim - Norway Gdansk 29.April - 2008 Development of World Energy Consumption 1990 to 2004 The World Energy consumption in million ton oil equivalent units (Mtoe) 1990 2004 The European Union Change in % 1990 2004 Change in % Electricity generation & heat plants 2.090 3.056 52 374 429 15 Industry 2.134 2.510 18 371 378 2 Transport 1.549 2.134 38 279 361 29 Residential/ Agricultural/ Losses 2.959 3.382 24 522 588 13 Total final consumption, energy demand 8.732 11.204 28 1.546 1.756 14 Source: Lindstad, World Energy Outlook 2 The New Enviromental picture of Europe In March 2007 The Europen leaders meet. They agreed that the energy consumption in 2020 shall be reduced by 20 % compared to 1990. “Today companies are held responsible for the environmental impact of the activities within their own part of the value chain. For the future however, the Commission reveals that manufacturers will be held responsible for the green audit of the whole life cycle of the product, from raw material to consumer good” (from ‘cradle to grave’). AS-IS: Supplier end Manufacturer Customer end Food Mart Food Mart Recycling Food Mart Raw material processing Component transport Factory Inventory 3PL service Manufacturer Environmental KPI’s for manufacturer Regional warehouse Food Mart Distribution TO-BE: Supplier end Manufacturer Customer end Food Mart Food Mart Recycling Food Mart Raw material processing Component transport Factory Inventory 3PL service Manufacturer Regional warehouse Food Mart Distribution Environmental KPI’s for manufacturer 3 Key European Transport Figures 2004 (EU 25) Billion tonn km Million Vehicle km Million Tonn transported Yearly nr of voyages/journeys in millions Average travel distance in km per voyage Average amount in Ton per voyage Fuel Consumption in gram per tonn km Mtoe - Callculated Million ton oil equivalents Average Carbon Footprint in gram CO2 per tonn km Teoretical Best case (100 % utilization) Carbon Footprint in gram CO2 per km Inland Short Sea Waterways Shipping 2004 2004 129 1 484 320 382 465 1 093 1,15 0,28 277 1 358 403 3 887 22 12 2,78 17,81 Road 2004 1 684 169 052 15 202 1520,20 111 10 50 83,36 Rail 2004 379 2 046 828 4,48 457 185 26 9,66 156 81 68 38 51 26 20 14 Source: Lindstad, European transport policy for 2010 : time to decide 4 The Enviromental Performance area and some of the relevant KPI’s Example of ‘complete’ mapping; StakeholdersRoleSPIOperational KPIsDiagnostic KPIs Port State Flag State Port/Channel Authorities Multi-National Governmental Organisations Stakeholders Other roles (hence other stakeholders) will also have interest in the SPI but only one role is shown due to visual reason Regulator Role Environmental Sustainability SPI SOx Energy Efficiency The role will also have interest in other SPIs but only one SPI is shown due to visual reasons Non-complete mapping due to visual reasons NOx VOC PM IncidentRelated Spills Operational KPIs Diagnostic KPIs Sulphur in Bunker Emitted mass (CO2) Transport Work (t/m) NOx-Factor Ballast Handling Cargo Incidents CleansingEffect 5 HOW TO MAKE A MODEL OF THE SEA TRANSPORT MARKET AND THE REAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION Number of Summary of vessel database vessels in Average dwt size group Dry Bulk fleet Dry bulk Capesize 120'-> Post-Panamax 85'-120' Dry Bulk Panamax 60'-85' Dry Bulk Handymax 35'-60' Dry Bulk Handysize 15'-35' Coastal 5-15' Small Bulk vessels 0-5' Total Dry Bulk Reefer fleet Reefer vessel 10'-15000 dwt Reefer vessel 5'-10000 dwt Reefer vessel 0- 5000 dwt Total Reefer Container fleet Container 8500 TEU, 90' -> Container 6500 TEU, 70'-90' Container 4000 TEU, 40'-70' Container 2300 TEU, 25'-40' Container 1400 TEU, 15'-25' Container 700 TEU, 5'-15' Total Container Average sailing distance Vessel speed 171.643 93.826 72.072 45.904 26.077 9.364 1.587 7500 6500 5500 5000 3000 2500 1000 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 5,5 6,5 7,5 8,5 13 17 40 4,5 5 4,5 5 7 8 20 15.326 12.005 9.784 8.179 6.652 3.500 1.006 201 374 620 1.217 11.677 7.163 1.966 5422 3000 2000 1000 19 17 12 18 24 45 14 18 25 182 160 1.023 750 809 1.115 4.205 105.968 80.256 55.285 33.281 20.484 9.940 23.875 11.000 11.000 7.000 2.500 1.000 800 24 24 24 22 18 17 11 11 15 33 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 762 114 1417 1876 1895 453 849 7366 Annual bunker consumtion per vessel [tonn] Total bunker Bunker consumption consumpper vessel tion in size group gram per Total CO2 [tonn] tonn-nm emission [tonn] Total cargo transported (million tonn) Billion tonn miles 16.231 12.636 9.914 8.465 6.246 3.378 923 626 60 660 631 523 59 43 2603 4.696 390 3.630 3.157 1.570 147 43 13.634 12.367.697 1.440.504 14.048.397 15.879.538 11.835.999 1.530.260 783.955 57.886.351 2,63 3,69 3,87 5,03 7,54 10,39 18,11 4,25 39.044.820 4.547.672 44.350.790 50.131.701 37.366.250 4.831.031 2.474.947 182.747.211 11.000 6.390 1.808 10.396 5.959 1.942 32 38 35 108 96 75 35 221 2.089.556 2.228.739 1.204.141 5.814.909 21,88 29,56 34,25 26,33 6.596.727 7.036.128 3.801.473 18.357.668 66.956 60.394 37.003 19.964 12.596 6.671 64.409 58.096 31.325 14.711 7.243 3.426 119 79 473 468 425 312 1902 1.310 867 3.308 1.169 425 250 7.343 11.722.348 9.295.331 32.045.497 11.033.097 5.859.185 3.819.650 74.018.614 8,95 10,72 9,69 9,43 13,80 15,29 10,08 37.007.452 29.345.359 101.167.633 34.831.489 18.497.447 12.058.634 233.676.764 Repositio Total Cargo ning engine size voyages voyages [kW] 6 Summary per vessel segment Dry Cargo 15'++ Dry Cargo 5'-10' Dry Cargo 1'-5' Dry Cargo 500-1' Dry bulk Capesize 120'-> Post-Panamax 85'-120' Dry Bulk Panamax 60'-85' Dry Bulk Handymax 35'-60' Dry Bulk Handysize 15'-35' Coastal 5-15' Reefer vessel 10'-15000 dwt Reefer vessel 0- 5000 dwt Container 8500 TEU, 90' -> Container 4000 TEU, 40'-70' Container 2300 TEU, 25'-40' Container 700 TEU, 5'-15' Container 200 TEU, 0-5' Crude oil tanker 200-+ Crude oil tanker 120-199,9' Crude oil tanker 75-119,9' Crude oil tanker 50-74,9' Product, chemical 40'-++ Product, chemical 25'-40' Product, chemical 15'-25' Product, chemical 5'-15' Product, chemical 0-5' RoRo 15'-25000 RoRo 5'-15000 RoRo 0'-5000 RoPax 5' - 10' RoPax 0 - 5' LNG 60'+ LPG 45'++ LPG 5'-15' LPG 0'-5' TOTAL CARGO Number of Average vessels in dwt size group 1.166 2.564 7.606 2.423 762 114 1.417 1.876 1.895 453 201 620 182 1.023 750 1.115 166 510 362 658 190 489 449 333 970 1.385 336 671 1.286 228 2.475 212 113 195 645 41.486 24.925 6.950 2.543 713 171.643 93.826 72.072 45.904 26.077 9.364 11.677 1.966 105.968 55.285 33.281 9.940 3.102 294.132 151.510 102.822 66.620 47.686 34.563 19.107 9.098 1.992 18.482 9.833 1.317 6.639 845 75.441 52.874 7.960 2.114 334.189 Total DWT in Total cargo millions per transported Vessel (million segment tonn) 29.062.990 17.820.520 19.341.764 1.727.568 130.792.067 10.696.206 102.126.370 86.115.320 49.416.405 4.242.005 2.347.135 1.219.007 10.291.418 33.124.988 20.365.060 8.018.397 502.617 150.007.123 54.846.652 67.656.817 12.657.800 23.318.475 15.518.565 6.362.680 8.824.742 2.758.311 6.210.053 6.597.688 1.693.485 1.513.584 2.092.069 15.993.528 5.974.802 1.552.143 1.363.369 969.132.949 365 465 685 55 626 60 660 631 523 59 36 42 119 473 468 312 27 574 299 619 162 269 172 127 247 127 132 205 149 167 230 87 48 31 31 9.916 Billion tonn miles 1.096 465 342 27 4.696 390 3.630 3.157 1.570 147 107 42 1.310 3.308 1.169 250 13 5.165 1.795 1.238 162 1.347 690 317 247 64 198 164 74 73 92 696 242 31 31 36.355 Estimated Carbon Theoretical Bunker Footprint in gram Carbon Total CO2 consump-tion Co2 per tonn km Footprint in emission Total bunker in gram per Estimated based upon real gram Co2 per [tonn] consump-tion capacity tonn-nm operational patterns tonn km in million tons utilization 7.721.801 7,05 61 % 24.377.725 12,26 7,52 5.806.614 12,48 60 % 18.331.480 21,71 13,02 5.947.603 17,38 60 % 18.776.582 30,22 18,13 880.626 32,31 60 % 2.780.136 56,19 33,71 12.367.697 2,63 50 % 39.044.820 4,58 2,27 1.440.504 3,69 51 % 4.547.672 6,42 3,27 14.048.397 3,87 56 % 44.350.790 6,73 3,79 15.879.538 5,03 57 % 50.131.701 8,75 4,96 11.835.999 7,54 55 % 37.366.250 13,11 7,24 1.530.260 10,39 58 % 4.831.031 18,07 10,44 2.062.515 19,25 51 % 6.511.360 33,49 17,17 1.203.536 28,84 53 % 3.799.562 50,15 26,79 11.722.348 8,95 70 % 37.007.452 15,56 10,89 32.045.497 9,69 70 % 101.167.633 16,85 11,79 11.033.097 9,43 70 % 34.831.489 16,41 11,49 3.819.650 15,29 70 % 12.058.634 26,60 18,62 243.507 18,22 70 % 31,69 22,18 768.751 12.518.007 2,42 48 % 39.519.349 4,22 2,00 5.819.447 3,24 48 % 18.371.994 5,64 2,68 4.534.920 3,66 48 % 14.316.743 6,37 3,03 764.252 4,73 48 % 2.412.744 8,22 3,90 3.699.974 2,75 64 % 11.680.818 4,78 3,05 3.349.753 4,86 64 % 10.575.170 8,45 5,41 1.370.135 4,32 64 % 4.325.517 7,52 4,81 1.604.004 6,48 61 % 5.063.842 11,28 6,85 706.378 11,11 58 % 2.230.035 19,33 11,16 2.542.364 12,87 70 % 8.026.242 22,38 15,67 2.821.506 17,19 70 % 8.907.495 29,90 20,93 1.955.753 26,33 70 % 6.174.311 45,80 32,06 5.470.369 49,78 84,67 42,33 50 % 17.231.663 13.139.613 95,19 161,91 80,96 50 % 41.389.780 4.929.860 7,08 48 % 15.563.569 12,32 5,85 1.590.280 6,58 48 % 5.020.514 11,45 5,44 499.153 16,12 48 % 1.575.825 28,03 13,31 815.474 26,62 48 % 2.574.450 46,29 21,99 5,90 232.322.440 10,26 733.308.982 7 Main Figures per vessel group Summary per vessel segment General Cargo Fleet Total General Cargo Dry Bulk fleet Total Dry Bulk Reefer fleet Total Reefer Container fleet Total Container Oil tanker fleet Total Crude oil Product, chemical fleet Total product & Chemical RoRo fleet Total RoRo (excluding Ropax) RoPax fleet Total RoPax LNG fleet Total LNG LPG fleet Total LPG TOTAL CARGO Number Total DWT in Total cargo of Average millions per transported vessels dwt Vessel (million in size segment tonn) group Estimated Carbon Bunker Footprint in Billion consump-tion gram Co2 per tonn Total bunker in gram per tonn km based miles consump-tion tonn-nm upon real in million operational tons patterns E s t i Total CO2 m emission a [tonn] t e 76.568.255 1.729 2.225 23.843.175 10,71 18,63 75.272.904 7.366 52.231 384.735.783 2.603 13.634 57.886.351 4,25 7,38 182.747.211 129 260 5.791.565 22,28 38,75 18.283.970 4.205 23.875 100.395.981 1.902 7.343 74.018.614 10,08 17,53 233.676.764 2.055 143.061 293.989.385 1.854 8.379 23.786.064 2,84 4,94 75.092.604 16.601 1.217 4.612 5.422 6.598.420 3.626 15.660 56.782.773 943 2.664 10.730.245 4,03 7,00 33.875.382 7.089 16.731.136 507 548 8.285.106 15,11 26,28 26.156.080 180 18.994.281 70,47 2.360 2.728 1.984 3.943.400 105,70 59.831.985 248 68.854 17.075.828 97 730 5.234.933 7,17 12,47 16.526.683 1.080 11.400 12.311.988 152 390 3.752.106 9,61 16,71 11.845.399 9.916 36.355 232.322.440 5,90 10,26 733.308.982 41.486 334.189 969.132.949 8 The Cargo Short Sea Fleet Summary per vessel segment Number of Average vessels in dwt size group General Cargo Fleet Dry Cargo 10'-15' Dry Cargo 5'-10' Dry Cargo 1'-5' Dry Bulk fleet Coastal 5-15' Small Bulk vessels 0-5' Container fleet Container 700 TEU, 5'-15' Container 200 TEU, 0-5' Product, chemical fleet Product, chemical 5'-15' Product, chemical 0-5' RoRo fleet RoRo 5'-15000 RoRo 0'-5000 RoPax fleet RoPax 10' - 15' RoPax 5' - 10' RoPax 0 - 5' Total sellected segments 20.446 Total fleet 41.486 334.189 Out of total Total DWT in millions per Vessel segment Total cargo transport ed (million tonn) Billion tonn miles Total bunker consump-tion in million tons Bunker consump-tion in gram per tonn-nm Estimated Carbon Theoretical Footprint in Carbon gram Co2 per Footprint in tonn km based gram Co2 per Estimated upon real tonn km capacity operational utilization patterns Total CO2 emission [tonn] 658 2564 7606 12416 6950 2543 8.169.663 17.820.520 19.341.764 145 465 685 289 465 342 2.962.710 5.806.614 5.947.603 10,24 12,48 17,38 17,82 21,71 30,22 10,69 13,02 18,13 60 % 60 % 60 % 9.353.277 18.331.480 18.776.582 453 849 9364 1587 4.242.005 1.347.410 59 43 147 43 1.530.260 783.955 10,39 18,11 18,07 31,49 10,44 17,84 58 % 57 % 4.831.031 2.474.947 1115 166 9940 3102 8.018.397 502.617 312 27 250 13 3.819.650 243.507 15,29 18,22 26,60 31,69 18,62 22,18 70 % 70 % 12.058.634 768.751 970 1385 9098 1992 8.824.742 2.758.311 247 127 247 64 1.604.004 706.378 6,48 11,11 11,28 19,33 6,85 11,16 61 % 58 % 5.063.842 2.230.035 671 1286 9833 1317 6.597.688 1.693.485 205 149 164 74 2.821.506 1.955.753 17,19 26,33 29,90 45,80 20,93 32,06 70 % 70 % 8.907.495 6.174.311 20 228 2.475 11.787 6.639 845 235.731 1.513.584 2.092.069 26 167 230 10 73 92 326.329 5.470.369 13.139.613 20,97 49,78 95,19 83.157.986 2.886 2.275 47.118.251 20,71 969.132.949 9.916 36.355 232.322.440 5,90 9% 29 % 49 % 35,67 84,67 161,91 17,84 42,33 80,96 50 % 50 % 50 % 1.027.937 17.231.663 41.389.780 148.619.765 10,26 733.308.982 20 % 20 % 9 The trend during the last 30 years in shipping is that nearly all the focus has been on developing efficient vessels from 30 000 dwt upwards to 300 000 dwt , while the SSS feet has been more or less neglected. This can be illustrated by the order books for new building versus the active fleet Dry bulk, container vessels, oil tankers and chemical tankers 3.000 Active fleet New orders 2.500 2.000 # 1.500 1.000 500 0 0 40.000 80.000 120.000 160.000 200.000 240.000 280.000 dwt 10 Logistics and Distribution scenarios 2008 2014 2020 2014 2020 Trade/Transport requirement 2008 Full Growth to 2014 then no/negative Growth Trade/Transport requirement 2020 2020 2014 Full Growth to 2014 then near zero Growth post 2014 Full Growth to 2014 then Growth to 2020 Scenario 4 2008 Scenario 3 2014 Scenario 2 2008 Full Growth Trade/Transport requirement Scenario 1 Trade/Transport requirement Collapsing Economic confidence post 2014 Dramatic increase in need for attention to environmental performance required, this could be the result of a large increase in oil price. Change phased in from 2014 11 What can be done? Saling vessels New vessels Future vessels 2010-2020 Post 2020 12 SST.2008.2.1.4 Continental Shipping -Sustainable Shipping The main idea in this proposal will be to focus on Improvements for vessels in the range 0 – 25 000 dwt since these vessels are the ones which is used in Short sea Shipping. The trend during the last 30 years in shipping is that nearly all the focus has been on developing efficient vessels from 30 000 dwt upwards to 300 000 dwt (the deep sea fleet), while the SSS fleet has more or less been neglected. Due to this the following comparison can be made: Energy efficiency Deep/sea versus short sea fleet: 1 / 10 + (carbon footprint 3g/tonnkm versus + 50g/tonn km (best versus worst) Steel weight Deep sea/versus short sea: 1 / 10 + (Best in deep sea fleet payload/ steel weight 10 +/ 1, Short sea 1 / 2 +) Short sea versus trucking: The trucks have improved their position both regarding Payload/ own weight and regarding CO2 emissions. So unless SSS improves trucks will be far ahead a few years into the future 13 14