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Working Class Tories not Labour Traditionalists: why UKIP is damaging the Conservatives Eric Kaufmann [email protected] Twitter: @epkaufm Data • Understanding Society (UKHLS) – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. – 1,188 UKIP supporters or voters – Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward – Longitudinal – LA and ward census data appended • Local Election Data, 2010-12 – UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940 – Ward and LA census data appended …. • British Election Study Internet Panel 2015, Wave 1– Feb-March 2014; Wave 2 May-June 2014 (Fieldhouse et. al) – 35,000 sample size – LA is lowest geographic identifier – Panel study, with second wave to come – LA level electoral data appended Sources of UKIP 2015 General Election Vote Intention (by 2010 vote). BES 2015 wave 1 DK, 2.1% Other, 1.1% BNP, 2.8% Green, 0.4% None, 10.8% Con, 44.4% UKIP, 10.2% Lib Dem, 15.8% Lab, 10.3% Sources of UKIP European Election Support (by 2010 vote), BES ’15 Wave 2 Nonvoter DK 6% 1% GreenOther 0% 1% BNP Pl. Cym 3% 1% SNP 2% UKIP 11% Lib Dem 15% Con 47% Lab 13% Sources of 2014 UKIP General Election Vote Intention by 2014 Party Identity. BES 2015 wave 1 DK, 4.7% BNP, Other, 0.8% 0.8% Green, 0.4% None, 17.8% UKIP, 38.2% Con, 24.2% Lab, 9.9% Lib Dem, 2.2% Share of 2014 UKIP Vote Intenders by Party ID and 2010 Vote (BES 2015 wave 1) 2014 Party ID 2010 Vote 16.4% 11.5% 10.0% 8.9% 8.8% 3.7%4.7% None Con Lab 3.6% Lib Dem 2014 UKIP Vote Intenders' Recalled 2010 Vote (BES Feb-Apr 2014, N = 20, 881) 50% 40% UKIP Voters & Supporters, former Vote/Support, 2009-12, Understanding Society, N (UKIP) = 417 30% 20% 45.0% 10% 40.0% Wave 1 to 2 0% 35.0% Wave 2 to 3 30.0% Wave 1 to 3 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% DK Con Lab Lib UKIP BNP Green Celtic None Other Nat Method: Logistic, clustered on LA; also multilevel Age Personal Income Tabloid/Broadsheet 2010 Vote Only 2010 Vote Only (multilevel (full data) data) +Labour Contextuals +Attitudes +Labour Contextuals +Attitudes Beta S.E. Beta S.E. Beta S.E. Beta S.E. Beta S.E. .017 .002 .014 .003 .014 .003 .007* .003 .007* .003 -.001 .006 -.003 .009 -.002 .009 -.006 .010 -.006 .010 .525*** .072 .550*** .082 .549*** .079 .164* .079 .158* .074 Education level -.285*** .045 -.340*** .037 -.344*** .038 -.113* .050 -.124* .053 Female -.336*** .040 -.414*** .086 -.416*** .085 -.445** .132 -.451** .131 .145 .241** .083 -.137 .163 -.115 .123 -.703** .230 2010 Tory Voter .477** 2010 Labour Voter -.839*** .087 -.781*** .129 -.763*** .129 -.688*** .160 -.644*** .154 2010 BNP Voter 1.908*** .232 1.798*** .337 1.815*** .343 .850** .433 .895** .439 2010 UKIP Voter Labour % of LA Vote 2.641*** .163 2.575*** .173 2.579*** .180 2.028*** .261 2.038*** .275 -.003 .004 -.009* .004 .011** .004 .017*** .005 Labour % of LA Vote x Tory voter in 2010 Immigration Cultural Benefits -.352*** .027 -.353*** .028 Out of EU 1.721*** .101 1.724*** .102 -.465*** .035 -.471*** .035 -.516* .215 -.133 .225 Satisfied UK Democracy _cons Pseudo R2 N -2.516*** .218 -1.929*** .197 -1.803*** .188 .11 .104 .105 .2586 .2601 18235 6595 6595 6025 6025 20 Labour/Conservative Ratio v. UKIP/Conservative Ratio Source: Local Election Data 2010-12 (Plymouth Elections Centre) Liverpool Liverpool Liverpool Sefton 15 Birmingham Birmingham 0 5 10 Sefton Liverpool Sefton Manchester Kingston upon Hull, City of SeftonSheffield Wirral Sheffield Sefton Kingston upon Hull, City of Sheffield Doncaster Sheffield Barnsley Sheffield Wirral Sheffield Barnsley Sheffield Sheffield Stockport Sheffield Birmingham LiverpoolManchester Sunderland Kingston upon Hull, St. Helens Liverpool Kingston upon Hull, CityCity of of Barnsley Sheffield Kingston upon Hull, City of Wigan Sheffield Salford Wirral Sefton Manchester Sheffield Salford Sheffield Manchester Manchester Wakefield Wakefield Coventry Newcastle upon Sheffield Tyne Salford Rotherham Rotherham Newcastle-under-Lyme Sunderland Newham Sefton Tameside Sheffield Rotherham Sheffield Birmingham Birmingham Manchester Liverpool Rotherham Liverpool Hartlepool Barking Tameside and Dagenham Norwich Rotherham Kingston upon Kingston Hull, upon City of Hull, City of Bradford Colchester Manchester Kingston upon Hull, City of Slough Rotherham Liverpool Sheffield Barking and Dagenham North East Lincolnshire Preston Wirral Rotherham Newcastle-under-Lyme Manchester Sheffield Birmingham Salford Dudley Merton Chorley Sefton Leeds Hartlepool Haringey Slough Carlisle Salford Sheffield Wakefield Leeds Sheffield Wirral Wolverhampton Wakefield Tameside Barking Birmingham and Dagenham Hartlepool Wigan Sefton Leeds Sunderland Newcastle-under-Lyme Salford Wirral Bradford Waltham Forest Rotherham Westminster Burnley Salford Rotherham Newcastle-under-Lyme Sunderland Rochdale Rotherham Newcastle-under-Lyme Tameside Sheffield Norwich Bradford Leeds Leeds Salford Birmingham Salford Sunderland Camden Bury Doncaster Milton Birmingham Colchester Keynes Cambridge Exeter Wirral Leeds Leeds Wirral Tameside Exeter Carlisle Wakefield Sheffield Walsall Tameside Doncaster Plymouth Newcastle-under-Lyme Newcastle-under-Lyme Hartlepool Barking Tameside and Dagenham Trafford Tameside Coventry Birmingham Barrow-in-Furness Rotherham Sheffield Wolverhampton Exeter Amber Valley Tameside Rotherham Tameside Bury Carlisle Slough Tameside Coventry Wakefield North East Lincolnshire Manchester Hartlepool Bradford Salford Norwich Barking North East and Lincolnshire Dagenham Rotherham Westminster Sheffield Newcastle-under-Lyme Oxford Waltham Forest Norwich Doncaster Stevenage Pendle Milton Burnley Plymouth Keynes Dudley Sheffield Leeds Sefton Wakefield Great Yarmouth Bury Birmingham Merton Bradford Lincoln Stevenage Rotherham Thurrock Salford Worcester Newcastle-under-Lyme Watford Chorley Tameside Derby Oxford Bury Manchester Derby Harlow Newcastle-under-Lyme Walsall Swindon Thurrock Bury Thurrock Carlisle North Plymouth East Lincolnshire Leeds Wirral Wolverhampton North East Lincolnshire Wirral Wolverhampton Exeter Dudley Tameside Crawley Slough Dudley Milton Keynes Lincoln Chorley Walsall Leeds Newcastle-under-Lyme Dudley Exeter Thurrock Tameside Cambridge Slough Dudley Bury Oldham Exeter Dudley Thurrock Hartlepool Barking Plymouth North Chorley Plymouth Waveney Dudley and East Dagenham Lincolnshire Kirklees Wigan Stevenage Southampton Salford North Basildon East Lincolnshire Liverpool Swindon Milton Oxford Keynes Great Yarmouth Carlisle Stevenage Basildon Waveney Cambridge Croydon Islington Lincoln Chorley Sefton Sunderland Eastleigh Peterborough Salford Stevenage Wigan Slough Wirral Bury Lincoln Southend-on-Sea Gloucester Swale Rotherham Basingstoke Hartlepool Plymouth Great Yarmouth and Deane Hammersmith Great and Yarmouth Fulham Tameside Milton Chorley Keynes Bury Bury Slough Enfield Wolverhampton Barnsley Great Yarmouth Wirral Amber Valley Birmingham Newcastle-under-Lyme Gosport Kensington Norwich Liverpool Enfield Walsall and Chelsea Wirral Greenwich Stevenage Rossendale Slough Wirral Tameside Barking Milton and Dagenham Keynes Tameside Wigan Southend-on-Sea Stevenage Hounslow Stevenage Exeter Stockport Exeter Doncaster Plymouth Basildon Eastleigh Redbridge Hyndburn Sefton Colchester Thurrock Slough Gloucester Birmingham North Bradford Plymouth East Waveney Walsall Lincolnshire Harrow Southampton Havant Barrow-in-Furness Sheffield Wakefield Bristol, Walsall Colchester Watford City of and Lincoln Bury Swale Waveney Gosport Wakefield Basingstoke andDeane Deane Birmingham Derby Sefton Exeter Chorley North Waveney Basingstoke Hertfordshire Croydon Trafford Slough Stevenage Exeter Enfield Plymouth West Lindsey Sefton Wakefield Chorley North Plymouth Havering Thurrock Hertfordshire Peterborough Birmingham Swindon Stevenage Dudley Havering Exeter Southampton North Bristol, Southampton Lincoln Bury Crawley Hertfordshire Peterborough City Hartlepool of Basildon Peterborough Bradford Great Yarmouth Sefton Harrow Tameside Bradford Tunbridge Dudley Plymouth Slough Dudley Rotherham Hartlepool Wells Chorley Southend-on-Sea Bury Stockport Adur Cambridge Walsall Birmingham Swindon Walsall Thurrock Wyre Peterborough Forest Trafford Worcester Stevenage Newcastle-under-Lyme Basildon Dudley Birmingham Salford Wolverhampton Gloucester Brentwood Newcastle-under-Lyme Gloucester Dudley Basildon Havering Waveney Plymouth Wirral Milton Dudley Bury Adur Newcastle-under-Lyme Slough North Great Keynes East Yarmouth Lincolnshire Coventry Southampton Redbridge Southampton Lincoln Dudley Great Plymouth Wyre Yarmouth Forest Lambeth Southend-on-Sea Swindon Wyre Havering Bury Adur Waveney Thurrock Bradford Rotherham Hyndburn Forest Basingstoke Sheffield Leeds Milton Chorley Newcastle-under-Lyme Watford Wolverhampton Elmbridge Keynes Sutton and Deane Leeds Chorley Bromley Warrington Walsall Carlisle Derby Woking Runnymede Thurrock Bradford West Milton Solihull Newcastle-under-Lyme Derby Carlisle Coventry Plymouth Thurrock Peterborough Lancashire Barnsley Keynes Sefton Wirral Thurrock Gosport Warrington Camden Croydon Wokingham Croydon Hertsmere Bury Dudley Waveney Kingston Reigate Adur North upon and Banstead Hull, East City Lincolnshire of Westminster Tameside South Harrow South Enfield Stevenage Milton Reading Sefton Cambridgeshire Cambridgeshire Keynes Wirral Leeds Salford Exeter Merton Swindon Enfield North Swale Hertfordshire Great Yarmouth Chorley Purbeck Stockport Gloucester Walsall Havant Eastleigh Redbridge Wirral Dudley Dudley Tandridge Dudley Three Waveney Plymouth Worthing Runnymede Dudley Rivers Adur Lincoln Doncaster Sefton Worthing Rushmoor Plymouth Colchester Thurrock Burnley Bradford Milton Newcastle-under-Lyme Newcastle-under-Lyme Hertsmere Carlisle Broxbourne Colchester Adur Plymouth Keynes South North Gloucester Dudley Salford Kirklees Reigate Hillingdon Basildon Swale Plymouth Cambridgeshire Great Adur East Worthing North and Lincolnshire Yarmouth Banstead East Lincolnshire Wirral Merton Ealing Swindon Southend-on-Sea Nuneaton Bromley Waveney Swale Derby Southend-on-Sea Maidstone Havering Southend-on-Sea Sefton Southend-on-Sea Bedworth Ealing Kensington Trafford Croydon Wokingham West Wolverhampton Wyre Carlisle Bexley Milton Bexley Wyre Peterborough Bromley North Fareham Tunbridge Huntingdonshire Worthing Havering Lindsey Forest Keynes Forest East Lincolnshire Chelsea Wells Swindon Milton Swale North Swindon Solihull Bexley Runnymede Reigate Dudley Mole Stockport Brentwood Keynes East Plymouth Worthing Valley and Lincolnshire Banstead Westminster West Walsall Woking Leeds Stockport Woking Bromley Carlisle Mole Stockport Wyre Carlisle Worthing Reigate Havering Lindsey Tunbridge Pendle Valley and Wells Banstead Southend-on-Sea Leeds Epping Sheffield Walsall Adur Walsall Maidstone Gosport Sefton Eastleigh Swale Peterborough Havering Huntingdonshire Forest Swindon Croydon Bradford Southend-on-Sea Tunbridge Sefton Gosport Mole Runnymede Swale Tunbridge Valley Adur Wells Wells Merton Reading Crawley Havant Havant Brentwood Tunbridge Runnymede Tandridge Thurrock Runnymede Eastleigh Havant Three Sutton Reigate Southend-on-Sea Rivers Wells and Banstead South Carlisle Basingstoke South Leeds North West Eastleigh North Southend-on-Sea Havering Peterborough Woking Basildon Runnymede Southend-on-Sea Worthing Cambridgeshire Mole Lindsey Cambridgeshire Hertfordshire Hertfordshire Valley and Deane Exeter South Watford Wirral Redbridge Hertsmere Gosport Wokingham Rochford Three Southend-on-Sea Eastleigh Havering Sutton Cambridgeshire Rivers Gosport Huntingdonshire Sutton Eastleigh Maidstone Tunbridge Gosport Bromley Basingstoke Havant Epping Brentwood Huntingdonshire Huntingdonshire Forest Wells and Deane Huntingdonshire Solihull Swindon Havant Milton Trafford Croydon Tunbridge Basildon Fareham Newcastle-under-Lyme Woking Wokingham Basildon Huntingdonshire Wokingham South Basildon Tandridge Eastleigh Worthing Brentwood North Keynes Cambridgeshire Hertfordshire Wells Wokingham Richmond Harrogate Southend-on-Sea Bromley Reigate Wokingham Epping Eastleigh Woking Huntingdonshire Reigate Tandridge Worthing Tunbridge Tunbridge Forest and upon and Banstead Banstead Wells Thames Wells Three Stockport Epping Huntingdonshire Woking Runnymede Reigate Fareham Reigate Huntingdonshire Tandridge Rochford Rivers Tandridge Forest and and Banstead Banstead Fareham Woking Winchester Eastleigh Woking Brentwood Brentwood Huntingdonshire Tandridge Epping Reigate Forest and Banstead Elmbridge Eastleigh Woking Elmbridge Mole Bromley Tandridge Bromley Tandridge Valley Reigate Cheltenham and Banstead Woking Epping Forest 0 1 2 3 UKIP/Conservative Ratio of Votes in ward wards Fitted values 4 DV: Labour-Tory vote ratio UKIP-Tory vote ratio UKIP-Labour vote ratio 10 UKIP in Labour-Tory Marginal LAs Reading LincolnCamden Chorley Carlisle Cannock Chase Pendle Rossendale Thurrock 0 North East Lincolnshire Stockport Southampton Hounslow Watford HarlowAmber Valley Ealing Bristol, City of Plymouth Merton Calderdale Dudley Enfield West Lancashire Redditch Redbridge Trafford Worcester Great Yarmouth Tamworth Crawley Weymouth and Portland Milton Keynes Harrow Croydon -10 Gloucester Waveney Rugby Hammersmith and Fulham Portsmouth Barnet Swindon SwalePeterborough Wyre Forest Stroud Hillingdon Basingstoke and Deane Westminster Wandsworth -20 Bexley -50 Southend-on-Sea Havering Colchester SouthAdur Lakeland -40 -30 -20 Margin by which UKIP Trailing Conservatives in LA -10 UKIP harms Tories…. but also hurts the Left? • UKIP damaging Tories, but: • Right-wing parties gain 2014 in combined share over time as UKIP share rises 2009 • Canadian example ?? Trends in EU Elections, UK, 1999-2014 Left Bloc Right Bloc 2004 1999 0% 20% 40% 60%